Well, the assume is a large one.
First you have to assume that Turion is doing more than "shipping for revenue" like last time, which as we have found through casual empiricism, is 9 months prior to shipping in any small volume.
Second, you have to assume that the Osborning of Intel because of 64bit or would you prefer dual core only affects Intel products and not AMD, but it is a hard argument to say that Osborne only applies to one of two simular products. You could say that it is the consumer waiting for AMD that is Osborning Intel, but that has not been true for four years now in the notebook market.
Next you still have to ignore the Centrino effect, which if you are naive enough to believe is a marketing slogan, I will personally vote for you to be the next president of AMD.
Next you have to ignore the slow down in the economy or say that this time being poorer only affects Intel customers and not AMD customers.