My Prediction: I'm looking at the Fast Stochastic 14/3; BB, 50sma day and volume. And I think I've figured out what triggered the run on 4/15. I don't think it was due to the price testing the 50ma on the day's low, not nearly as much as I think it was due to the price testing the lower BB, along with the %K up-crossing the %D @ around 10.
The day before, the stochastic was VERY low. %k was at 4, %D under 9, and the price was getting very close to the lower BB. I know for a fact that there are about 125,000 traders who have bought a certain stock screening software that advises of looking for two certain characteristics for an upswing, and they are, "price at lower BB and Stochastic at or below 10. (There are other factors that go along with these two, but these are enough for now.) So when the price hit the lower BB the next day, all Hell broke loose, The K crossed the D and away we went. We ran for 8 more days, then a BIG sell off which started right when the HOD reached the top BB!
We are pretty close to having the same circumstances that were extant back on the 15th, all that's missing is for the price to test the lower BB and the SF to be just a little lower. And I'm sorry to have to say this, but I don't think we'll see a repeat of the run until we do. The good news is the price won't have to get to the .0085 low as it were on the 15th, as the BB's have tightened up since then. But we will have to see a price drop to at least .015, maybe even .0135 (depending if the lower BB decides to turn down due to a price drop) before all those triggers get set off again and all those buyers come back. So my suggestion (not advice, I never give advice) would be, that instead of us beating our heads against the wall wondering why the rocket hasn't taken off yet, that we wait for a better indicator and better price to enlarge our positions.
The FS 14/3 is now at about 15, the K and D are running neck and neck and are headed south. So I think lay off the bid, let the sellers get crap for their shares, that would only serve them right for selling in the first place, then, when the price and indicators are right, jump in, while we gain the support of the rest of the trading community. Only then will we get the 300million/day volume that we'll need to turn this baby around. And if you're wondering what software I'm talking about, it's that hot, super duper screener program that's being advertised all over IHUB, it's on many of the more popular intros to many chat boards. Go to their site and watch the 20 minute "how to use the software" video-- it's all there.
I'm currently holding shares that I picked up at .024. A miserable price by today's standards, but not bad for the long term. I also have a little more cash that I transferred into my account that's clearing tomorrow that I'll use to add to my meager position. But all along I've wanted to get some kind of accurate indicator of what, who, where and especially WHY and WHEN the price will take off or not take off. Well, I'm willing to stick my neck out with this idea as long as it helps to reduce some of the frustration that might be going on with some of the not-quite-as-experienced traders that might be around here, myself included. As long as we continue to have this relatively crappy volume, the price will decline. Once the indicators are right, that being stochastic at 10 and price at lower BB, then we'll take off north. Unless of course there's some rich millionaire a-hole out there who marks my posts, sends it to all his shorting buddies along with the note: "Hey fellas, let's cream this guy!"
Have a nice day and good luck in your investment decisions. Lord knows I need a little for mine.
AI
