Rambus (RMBS)

[Nicdagreek]

That has been discussed many times in the past. If Rambus wins on some claims, will they have to litigate every patent going forward to get a reasonable rate, and in every patent venue, or will they sign an agreement for an appropriate rate that covers everything. That's the big unknown in my mind.

That's actually an unknown in many people's minds, including those at the highest level at Hynix/Rambus who have to make decisions about what rates to charge. This is why, I don't remember when, but someone was arguing Rambus could charge anything they wanted: well, theoretically possible, but practically impossible. Defendants do the math every day and calculate whether it makes more sense to litigate or pay. When everyone is refusing to pay, you have to stop and think whether 99% of the population is really irrational, or whether there is something wrong with YOUR model.

This case involves the cream of the crop of the Rambus patents; if they don't secure a big judgement, I daresay the other cases are going to be effectively "noise." And, the key determinant is what claims the jury finds infringed, and what rates they assess. If they find no DDR claims infringed, I fail to see how Rambus gets anywhere near 3.5% on the DDR sales, let alone 7%. Plus, as I mentioned, more than half of these sales are the .75% rate, so Rambus effective rate is more like (7+1.5)/2 = 4.25% even if we double everything, which is a huge supposition. I think they see 2 - 3% blended, which makes about $100m or so.

But that's just me; I'm sure Rick C and Hager have already provided better numbers LOL

Da Greek