NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[changes_iv]

Yes, there are camels in the Indy Zoo but that is not the problem.

I won’t comment on the health implications but with planes of people being tracked and isolated because of infected patients globally and most recently in the United States there could be short-term economic impacts with knock on effects to consumption and employment in the near future.

In the short term, flu-like diseases such as MERS impacts economic growth by reducing demand. Some detail:

- Consumer confidence decreases, (in the case of SARS quite dramatically) in impacted countries, leading to a reduction in private consumption spending. Much of the impact stems from the great uncertainty and fear generated by the disease. People prefer to stay at home (social distancing) to reduce the probability of infection.
- Service exports, in particular tourism but sometimes other sectors (such as education) are almost immediately impacted.
- Transport hubs in the impacted area are also impacted as people either cancel travel or take alternate routes. The Middle East in an important transport hub (as noted by Crawford Kilian on the 19th April).
- Investment is affected by reduced overall demand, heightened uncertainties, and increased risks. Excess capacity will emerge or increase.
- Foreign investment inflow may be delayed or reduced in reaction to a disease outbreak.
- While increased government spending will mitigate the impact, the ability of governments to revive economies facing widespread reductions in private spending is limited.

The Asian Development Bank did some modelling of SARS toward the end of the 2002-2003 outbreak which put the total cost at that time between $12.3 to $28.4-billion. It noted that:

“Of particular concern is the fact that SARS will not only induce hardship for many, but also intensify the problems faced by the poorest and most vulnerable groups in society due to their limited access to medical services. The weakening of demand will further reduce inflation and intensify deflationary pressure in some economies, including PRC; Hong Kong, China; and Taipei, China. Weakened demand will also cause the unemployment rate to rise. Although reduced service exports will lower foreign exchange receipts, imports may be lowered even more due to a significant weakening of domestic demand in the economies concerned.” (source: ADB)

So, in the end MERS is not SARS but if people continue to get infected and carry those infections across the world then from an economic and employment perspective, especially for the Middle East which relies heavily on migrant labour, it might feel like the same thing.

source: http://peakjobs.me/2014/05/03/us-implications-for-employment-and-growth-as-mers-is-found-in-america/

It is low risk according to the CDC but it is spreading accross the globe. Perhaps the people should start to get ready and petition the FDA for compassionate use of low-toxicity and safe FluCide, through any means (mass media, local television and radio news, etc.) possible. For now, we'll have to wait and see.