Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[skweze]

The CC or other communication from management couldn't hurt! I think the biggest driver would be a statement that the ATM will no longer be used. I see two differences remaining now versus the run above $5.00 prior to the labeling issue (besides the obvious fact that the company is now in PH III!)

1) Prior to the run on the original PH II data, SK announced that there would be no more dilutive financing. Subsequent to that statement, there has been round after round of dilution. (Reasonable given the bank calling back the $25MM loan, but still unsettling to the market.)

2) Now there is an unresolved class action lawsuit against the company.

Of the two, I would speculate that a non-dilutive financing announcement is the bigger price mover. And to the extent that the lawsuit could be either an impediment to partnership talks or has been simply been priced in, it should be moot next week when it appears likely that the judge will dismiss the CA once and for all. Regardless of the degree of negative value imputed to either of the above, announce that there will be no more dilution and that the CA lawsuit has been tossed, and I would expect to be trading at least above $3.50.. a very conservative figure - above $8 would not be a total surprise - but how to account for the dilution since the labeling fiasco? All imo.

IMO Peregrine should hold a conference call to inform investors that the SUNRISE trial is enrolling well and that there will be a look-in in late 2014, and if all markers are trending as expected the company will apply for AA. The company should also make a statement that the ATM will no longer be used and the company has enough capital to take it through applying for AA in early 2015 through FDA approval in 2015.
With a strong confident PR like that wall street would run the stock north of 8/share in short time.