"We anticipate major catalysts from leading drug candidate Zybrestat to attract investors before year-end: details of the positive median progression-free survival (mPFS) results from a Phase II ovarian cancer trial could lead to a registrational Phase II/III trial in 2015, and guidance from the EMA on a registration pathway under an Exceptional Circumstances provision in anaplastic thyroid cancer (ATC) could lead to an MAA filing in early 2016," said Zavoico.
"Our valuation reflects our confidence in Zybrestat's potential in ovarian cancer and our projected ATC approval in E.U. in 2016. We use a discounted P/E model applied to our projected diluted 2020 EPS for Zybrestat sales revenue in ovarian cancer and ATC. We selected a 40% discount rate based on current risks (PFS benefit in ovarian cancer has not been reported in detail, uncertain EMA guidance on ATC registration based solely on FACT results), and a 25x P/E multiple to arrive at our one-year price target of $7.50 per share. Surprise upsides include positive development of OXi4503 and Zybrestat for other indications not included in our valuation," he added.
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