Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Zargis]

Daily resistance / support ranges are still pretty much the same (closest to watch for)

*edit note* meant to post this in reply to FFF, so sorry about not doing that.

$3.68-$3.72 (bottom range)

$3.76-$3.79-$3.82

$3.93-$3.96

$4.03-$4.05-$4.08

$4.39-$4.58-$4.71

(note that triple point ranges are OVERLAPPING resistance or support, breaking above/below said ranges seem to be fairly swift in descent or ascent.)



NOTE: I will first evaluate each chart separately, then combine the total results. Keep in mind that for the last year and a half, we have been in a slow uptrend - and ultimately, that is still intact regardless of the short/mid term charting.



Daily Indicators are roughly average (see chart below, all indicators can be seen at the TOP of each indicator / the image and are color coded)

Daily to me shows off hand a partial trend pullback / short-term reversal (i.e. potentially seeing $3.76-$3.82 again in the next few days prior to the 29th)

we have a cross that indicates today indecision - it wanted to go higher, failed then tried to go lower, failed... we were going up previously so that means potentially a reverse to the down angle



Hourly (60-minute) chart indicates a broken trend line (potential move down) I could see the lower 10,1 bollinger band being tested ($3.93) and if broken testing the 20-bar SMA at $3.87/$3.88.





5-minute is trying to move up on the upper 30, 3 bollinger band at $3.97 and is sitting on the upper 20,2 bollinger band at $3.96. Also, all bollinger bands (except 30,3 green) are angled up. The 30,3 should angle up as well if $3.97 is broken. Parabolic PSAR is good.


5-minute Entire Day



5-minute END OF DAY



1-minute, pretty much similar to the 5-minute, insignificant to post.



Ultimately, the charts to me indicate the morning will have a jump in price in the first 5-20 minutes. i.e. we may see another test of $4.04/$4.05. However,the hourly and daily are bearish in my opinion and indicate that we may have a lower or red end of day. (or at least mid day)

What to watch for:


RSI-4 on the 5-minute and the hourly, if it reaches 92-99 on either start looking for a drop. (hourly usually ends up 10-20 cents on a drop - 5minute ends up with 5-10 generally speaking.)

Sharp price increases, the volume we've had recently does not support a strong movement upward, however, we can be surprised by this as well with a large move on low volume. Though, this would have to continue for a ways and BRING large volume or it would be a fake move up - in my opinion.


Gap up / down thoughts:
If we gap up, I expect tomorrow will retrace the gap and very likely will support my theory of a move up early morning followed by a move down after the initial bull run gets stifled.

If a gap down occurs, I would expect very possibly a large move up based on the current charts and known upcoming news events.



Overall observation on news incoming:

It is my belief that the johnson / crapo bill being scheduled for 4/29 is no coincidence and may cause a 20-30 cent drop near that time. However, it may be the opposite and, may simply be used as a way to scare traders / investors off all the while the key news event being earnings a week or two later. (supposedly 5/5/2014 though this is tentative)


Be well, be safe, I'll answer questions if anyone has any. You will notice my charts tend to have 3-4 sets of bollinger bands now... I highly recommend observing charts from this perspective for about a week to learn the minute-by-minute movements and use them in your charting patterns. I've seen that once the inner portions break, it moves to the outer portions fairly on target. This can allow one to create key selling or buying points if used along with RSI 14/4, SMA, Williams %-R and Parabolic SAR.

-Zargis