Wednesday, April 23, 2014 12:09:08 PM
There have been dozens of posts and predictions regarding a buyout of VRNG and all of them have been 100% wrong. I have tried to repeatedly explain the concept of M&A in the patent space but most do not want to hear the truth.
The reality is that most of the value with VRNG is inherently associated with the key personnel. Players like Cohen, Lang, Stout, etc. are just not going to uproot themselves and move to another company in another city, or possibly another country. The patents VRNG owns outright and via partnerships are valuable, yes. But a nice sports car doesn't win the race without a champion driver in the front seat. Unless there is a friendly deal, the talent usually walks out the door when IP asset companies and PAEs are purchased.
And type of money that would need to be thrown around for VRNG to agree to a friendly deal just doesn't jive with reality. Add to the fact that there are advanced provisions and complications associated with VRNG's patent monetization business. The model VRNG has created and the patents VRNG has acquired simply to not line up with the prospects of a buyout.
Yes, VRNG is creating revenue streams that are valuable. Big companies covet cash flow. But once these cash flows are defined, there really isn't a reason any big player would pay a large premium to acquire such cash flows. Especially when there are risks associated with these flows, most notably those related to time and ownership impairments.
Below is what I posted to ekatzy_99 last year when he was convinced VRNG was setting itself up for a buyout, despite the hypothesis being based on an illogical foundation. As time has told, the logic of a buyout of VRNG just hasn't played out the way dreamers hoped it would. And I am thankful for that, as I am hoping for sustained growth over time and the company patiently as effectively executes it's business plans.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=91681834
I don't think you really understand IP companies and M&A activity. Much of the value is with the key personnel. Players like Cohen, Lang, Stout, etc. are just not going to uproot themselves and move to Redmond, WA or Helsinki, Finland. Unless there is a friendly deal, the talent usually walks out the door when IP asset companies and PAEs are purchased.
What do I think "is there {sic} end game?" For starters, I don't think they plan for an end, at least not in the way options traders and desperately margined shareholders do. I believe that VRNG continues to have a long-term strategic plan based on acquiring and enforcing key intellectual property assets. It's a strategy based on achieving early success and building upon it one step at a time. Growth begets more growth.
I/P Engine was just stage 1. ZTE and asserting the NOK patents is stage 2. Over time, I believe they plan to be more like Acacia in that they will have a recurring, self-sustaining patent royalty stream across several different types of IP assets. They aren't looking to "cash in" the same way a retail amateur does with his 100 share lots. They are looking to build a business. Maybe even an empire. They have the talent, the creativity, and experience to pull it off.
But it takes time. A lot of time, which I have been saying repeatedly since I first showed up here.
Discussion of improbable buyouts and multi-billion dollar jackpot awards are just a waste of time. These message boards are riddled with the same nonsense year after year from dreamers who don't understand what they are discussing. The prayers are never answered. The wild guesses never come true. It justs wastes everyone's time discussing ignorant hopes.
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