I think to solve this you do a hypergeometric distribution function.
I read about 800 final applicants.
I read pmcm had 3 production and 1 processing application.
I used an online hypergeometric calc and put in
population size = 800
population success in population = 334
sample size = 3
and for number of success in sample size, you can put in 1, 2, and 3 and calculate seperately.
Prob of all 3 producer licenses = 7.2%
only 2 = 30.4%
only 1 = 42.56%
At least 1 = sum of those = 80.2%
For the processing put sample size = 1, and sample success = 1 and you get 41.75% chance to get that.
11% chance none of the 4 get picked. However, maybe these numbers are wrong, for example, maybe they are only giving out 100 producer licenses of the 334 given out. Maybe 50 processing licenses, etc. Not really sure, but this is my best guess from the information I know
