After reading your post a few times the main issue I see is not which scenario will work the best but the fact that you need to find an end result you are seeking. What are you wanting to get out of your portfolio by the EOY? Once you answer that you will know which scenario to pick that will best suit to achieve that. I will say though, if you have a lot of other stocks that will create profit for you, don't be afraid of taking a loss here by years end (if this stock doesn't go where you'd like it to go by then being that you are a LT holder if I'm correct) to cut your gains taxes. Create another account prior to that so you can always buy it again if you're afraid of implications. Now let's say you do pay the taxes on your profits and then take ILIV at a loss next year (assuming it goes no where per your post), you could always take that loss and apply it to your profits for that year so the following year taxes will be less. You won't be "screwed" you just won't be taking advantage of the loss immediately, you'll be applying it later.
I for one do not hold anything by EOY, all of my holdings are liquidated; that's just how I do it. It makes everything easier and less complicated. If I missed something in your post or still want me to give a more definitive answer let me know. I'll be popping on here randomly today and will answer. Hope you're having a good weekend.
AI
