Liquidation Value, back of the 'ol envelope:
Cash and Cash equivalents valued at 100%
AR valued at 60% of carrying value (conservative)
Inventory at 60% of carrying value (conservative as they sell gold, not lawn ornaments)
other current assets, not sure what that is, but we'll mark it at 60% of carrying value
current assets in liquidation (including gramercy's $40M) $73.52
Other assets (mines) mark down to 80% of carry value due to restructure charges or implementing new mgmt
PPE, mark down to 60% of carry (super conservative, basically saying they havent recognized enough depreciation, which i dont agree with, but i'd rather be safe than sorry)
fixed assets $551.2M
Total Assets in liquidation = 624.72
Total Liabilites (recognized at 100%, includes Gramercy's preferred shares) = $370M
624.72 - 370 = 254.72 equity value in liquidation / 252M common shares = ~ $1/share
Again, back of the envelope, and I am no expert in Congolese bankruptcy law or proceedings. However i feel that I used pretty conservative estimates, and even if I am off by 50% that puts the price at where it is trading at today. I am very comfortable owning at these levels.
