AMD strictly moderated (AMD)

[jhalada]

ag,

Your assumption is hard to translate to numbers because you need to know how the product mix changes thru the year as the % of dual core parts rises as well as how much 300mm capacity AMD started with as well as how fast more capacity is added. Could you give a guess on the required product mix in Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4?

Here is my last attempt:

I guess the product mix in Q2 may be as follows:
- 70% of 84mm^2 SC, 512K L2 parts for Semprons, A64s
- 5% of 114mm^2 SC, 1MB L2 parts for A64, FX, Opteron (this part will be discontinued under Rev F, IIRC)
- 15% of 150MM^2 DC, 2x512K L2 parts for DC A64s
- 10% of 200mm^2 DC, 2x1MB L2 parts for DC A64, FX, Opteron
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22207526&srchtxt=150mm^2

It is possible that the conversion to DC will be faster. But, as far as quidelines for the future, it depends on what Intel does. AMD is not going to push Sempron to DC before 65nm, unless forced by Intel. We may see a start of it in Q4.

Assuming Sempron stays SC, and all Athlons move to DC, I see the situation in Q3, Q4 as follows (ignoting for the moment small die differences of Rev F and possibility of dedicated 256K Sempron die under Ref F)"
- 50% of 84mm^2 SC, 512K L2 parts for Semprons
- 40% of 150MM^2 DC, 2x512K L2 parts for DC A64s
- 10% of 200mm^2 DC, 2x1MB L2 parts for DC A64, FX, Opteron

The above may be the worst case scenario from die size perspective, assuming no SC Athlons, Sempron penetration no higher than 50%, overall implying some traction in the "enterprise".

BTW, the 2 scenarios imply increase in blended average die size from 107 to 122 mm^2, assuming no 65nm.

My guess is that they started Fab 36 at 1250W/W thru Q1 and will increase to 2500W/W by mid Q3 and perhaps will exit the year at 3750W/W.

That seems like an aggressive ramp. My initial thinking was more like starting with some 500 wafer starts per week, ramping to about 1000 by the end of Q1, but given Hector's statements about mature yields, there is not any point in holding back, while there still exists some scarcity for AMD parts in the market place. The only possible complication may be Rev E vs. Rev F issues (if 300mm masks were Rev F, and if Rev F needed a respin).

I would be very aggressive in Q2, ramping to 2000+ wafers starts per week for H2 delivery, then leveling off, based on market demand.

Joe