CaribbeanJim 8yr cycle low in Q3.
lets work scenario #1
how low would the comp go if we break 2200?
i see comp downside at 2000 at best, a 10% correction
then after that, a 50% rise (per scenario 1), brings us to comp 3000? yes?
adding on;
we are in a bear market and do not see a rally past the 4th qrt of 2006, I am not that optimistic going past 2006. I see a S&P rally to 1350 then we sell off.
from CarribeanJim
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Potential 8yr Cycle Scenarios
I see two possibilities for carving out our 8yr cycle low in Q3.
#1 After reviewing SP500 historic charts of 4yr and 8yr Cycles and monthly PMO analysis on DecisionPoint, I can see the potential of us continuing down gradually for the next 6 to 8 months to carve out our major 8yr Cycle. This is exactly what happened in 1953.
#2 We break through the overhead resistance on the large caps and move up fast into Q2. In Q3, we get a swift and major 1998-style correction with small and mid caps taking most of the beating. Coming out of that correction, the large caps will probably be the winners.
I'm guessing we will get scenario #2. The bears probably think we will get scenario #1. If my 2200-level support breaks, I would definitely go with scenario #1.
Historically, after a Q3 correction in a severe 8yr cycle, the Nasdaq has risen about 50% before topping.
