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Re: None

Tuesday, 04/08/2014 5:00:17 PM

Tuesday, April 08, 2014 5:00:17 PM

Post# of 62024
So, unfortunately, we don't have an overlapping period of both financials and traffic numbers. I like knowing what to expect though, and for those guessing - this may help. All estimates were made using a basic linear model but I think it may be close to what we should expect to see come the 10-K then 10-Q.

Website data we have:

OCT - 620 K
NOV - 1.1 M
DEC - 2.0 M

Since it roughly doubled each month, I'll assume a similar trend existed previously giving us:

JUL - 75 K
AUG - 150 K
SEP - 310 K

Total revenue for that period was $16,579. Ignoring the installation fees and assuming income was generated as the result of traffic - the math works out to approximately .03 cents per visit.

Input that value into the 4th quarter traffic numbers, and the income expected is $115,588. Taking into account the installation fees, I'd expect to see total revenue around $75,000 for 4th quarter. In reality, that may still be too high as the company did mention a large majority of 3rd quarter income was due to the installation fees being charged. I also don't think $0.03 per visit is realistic. Just the way the math works out.

More fun yet. Project the numbers with a more modest growth projection:

JAN 4.0 M
FEB 6.0 M
MAR 8.0 M

The revenues for 1st quarter come out to $540,000. No one murder me for the estimates - just something to consider. IMHO