Has anything really changed?
Since my entry last fall in INSM I try to continually ask myself that question as the company reports on or experiences new events. We comb over each event searching for some greater or lesser meaning yet one thing continues to jump out at me...
Lazard's 12/13 upgrade: ...We arrive at our new 12-month price target of $4.00 price by applying a 5.6 enterprise value-to-revenue multiple to our new 2008 iPlex sales estimate of $119 M, discounted two years at 25%, including fully diluted shares of 109.5 million, which assumes a financing in 2006 Risks to our thesis include a delayed launch for iPlex or faster-than-anticipated launch of Increlex.
Nope, nothing's changed on the financing front. We hashed over their call for 100M fully diluted shares and eventually concluded that was going to happen by 2Q, then the company's filings confirmed it. Lazard has "called the ball".
Now, what has changed, imho?
1. the number of folks that own and/or follow INSM. It's too bad that the noise we're hearing is from those that are daytraders and absolute amateurs in biotech investing. They're pissed they got caught chasing other amateurs and they're all left to call each other names in an effort to placate their mistaken entry "strategy" and biotech experience. I do think that anyone who chased and bought, even those at $3.30 will be handsomely rewarded...if they're still around.
2. the science has been validated for Iplex w/ FDA and it's audience of medical profesionals has also increased as we are no longer excited soley about it's intended use but for applications w/ larger patient pools and for wider worldwide use.
I suggested last week this was beginning to look like an orchestrated series of corporate events and see it unfolding not as we on the outside were anticipating, guessing or pontificating BUT as an pretty well organized effort by a company executing their grand plan. I will use this as a buying opp, look forward to the next PR fm IR and am patient for INSM to exceed Lazard's tgt.
GLTA and thanks again to those that post here.
