Bird Flu- Friday March 3, 9:49 PM
Bird flu pandemic would hit metals, energy -bank
LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - A human bird flu pandemic would have serious implications on demand for energy and industrial metals by crimping global economic growth, Deutsche Bank said on Friday.
The investment bank said in a report that a severe outbreak could take between two and four percent off Europe's gross domestic product (GDP) and trigger a flight of capital from highly indebted nations like the U.S. to creditor nations like Switzerland and Japan.
But while the virus remains limited to animals and humans only through close contact, the impact would be much less, cutting GDP growth by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points.
H5N1 avian influenza has killed birds in more than 30 countries stretching from South Korea to Germany and into Nigeria and Niger. It has spread to 14 new countries in a month, and infected 173 people, killing 94 of them.
Deutsche estimated oil prices could fall by at least $20-25 a barrel due to the dampening effect an outbreak would have on global GDP, on demand for aviation fuel and on Asian GDP -- a major commodities consumer.
"With jet fuel accounting for around 5-7 percent of the crude barrel, a market downturn in passenger aviation could see this level of activity nearly halve with a commensurate decline in oil demand of around 2-3 million barrels per day," it said.
Industrial metals markets were also under threat.
"Avian flu is one of the key risks to our optimistic outlook on the demand prospects for metal markets over the next two years," the bank said.
"The real demand and supply threat posed...to metal markets would come in the event of the transmission into large concentrated human populations with relatively high real disposable incomes."
This may also trigger an outright repatriation of capital from overseas markets by creditor nations and could benefit precious metals, Deutsche said.
"We find large creditor nations will tend to 'enjoy' an appreciation in their currencies as foreign holdings are brought home, while the large debtor nations, who are reliant on foreign capital to fund their current account deficits, will tend to depreciate as foreign capital exits these markets."
