MannKind Corp. (MNKD)

[Solantey]

Until the F.D.A. issues its decision and the market knows the requirements placed on Afrezza such as REMS, pulmonary lung function testing, and cancer warning or cancer studies it's impossible to have a glimpse of Mannkind's future.

If the F.D.A. requires patients to have a lung function test to establish a baseline before Afrezza is used along with a follow-up test in six months that would add another $300 to $600 cost to using the drug. Is a type 2 diabetic likely to switch from a pill to an inhaled drug? I think not.

The "terms" of the decision will likely determine if Mannkind is able to find a "big pharma" partner to market Afrezza. Failure to do would necessitate that Mannkind raise another $300M to market Afrezza "in house".

Also of interest is GSK having their once a week insulin expected to be approved on April 15.

I think with over 425M shares on a fully diluted basis that a fair value for Mannkind is currently in the $3.50 range to be adjusted in July once the F.D.A. places the restrictions on Afrezza.