RespireRx Pharmaceuticals Inc (RSPI): Alertmeipp, Here's Cortex's projected c...

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Re: alertmeipp post# 16576

Thursday, 04/17/2008 10:44:51 PM

Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:44:51 PM

Alertmeipp, Here's Cortex's projected cash level through 2008 (based on the $17.3 mil cash level at year end 2007, and Stoll's projected $14 mil burn rate for 2008) -

Apr - 12.6 mil
May - 11.5 mil
Jun - 10.3 mil
Jul - 9.1 mil
Aug - 8.0 mil
Sep - 6.8 mil
Oct - 5.6 mil
Nov - 4.4 mil
Dec - 3.3 mil

The current situation is considerably different than when the last financing was done. At that time, Stoll felt he had to hedge the FDA/ADHD decision since - 1) he didn't know what the outcome would be, and 2) cash was approaching $5 mil.

This time, he'll most likely know the RD results way ahead of time (say May), when the cash level is still above $11 mil. He can then calmly wait to release the RD results (late June/July), knowing they're 'in the bag'. The July press release will then maximize the pps, and a financing can be done on favorable terms. It's also possible that an RD deal might be consummated before a financing is done, or instead of a financing (I'm not counting on that however).

As I see it, the only way Dr. Stoll will do a financing before the official release of the RD results (late June/July) would be if he's not confident about the results. Another possibility for an early financing might be if news leakage in May drives the pps so high that he doesn't think the official press release in July will raise it any higher (an unlikely scenario however).

Bottomline, there shouldn't be a financing until July at the earliest, unless Stoll is not sure/confident of the RD results. That's not impossible BTW, since it's not inconceivable that 1500 mg or even 2000 mg might not produce clear efficacy. In that case he may want to hedge and do a financing, especially if the pharma partners don't seem impressed with the data.

Hopefully it won't come to that though, and efficacy at 1500 mg data will be unambiguous. If 2000 mg is required (RD-2), then it will take longer, since they first must run through the 8 patient cohorts at 900 mg and then at 1500 mg (and the trial cycle per patient is a week due to the washout period between the drug and placebo doses).