Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Inc (NAVB): Caveat emptor: In my humble opinion,...

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DewDiligence

Re: DewDiligence post# 83

Tuesday, 03/30/2004 9:34:27 PM

Tuesday, March 30, 2004 9:34:27 PM

Caveat emptor:

In my humble opinion, this stock is now fully valued on a risk-adjusted basis. With about 66M fully-diluted shares including options and warrants (#msg-2569414), the effective market cap is about $60M. The 10K makes it clear that a decision to move forward with RIGS will require additional funding –and presumably more dilution— in order to bring the manufacturing up to date and run whatever clinical trials are required by the FDA. And the FDA may, of course, conclude that the idea of using data from 1996 doesn’t cut it and tell NEOP to start the whole process over.

If you were smart enough to buy at 50 cents or less, congratulations! But I find that, at the current price, the potential upside is offset by the manifold risks. Then again, I’m just a perennially skeptical value investor, so what do I know?

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”