Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD): Another quick summary from my viewpoint...

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UpNDown

Re: UpNDown post# 13957

Sunday, 10/05/2003 8:28:01 PM

Sunday, October 05, 2003 8:28:01 PM

Another quick summary from my viewpoint

Well, I got lucky on my previous call, so I'll go out further on the limb -- wbmw, I assume you're still reading this :)

Looks like the institutional market is liking what they see. The speculative market seems to be scared at this point. I guess the previous AMD run-up makes them uncomfortable with the current share price levels. I can understand that; I think about it as well. I keep thinking there must be another jewel lying around undetected that hasn't run up so much. But I still have money in AMD and ATI that has run up considerably, has a good chance to run more, but still makes me question my sanity. Of course, any good gamble involves taking risks.

Still, we're approaching earnings announcement. This one is really crucial as the institutions can be convinced that the top of the hill (profitability) can be seen clearly from here, rather than the muddy vision we had over the last year when profitability was some indeterminate distance away.

So, if the earnings are positive, and I believe they will be, I see a major rise in the stock price due to institutional buying. As well, I don't foresee a drop on news this time -- the speculators are not there to sell enough to outweigh institutional pressure. Let me make this clear -- no excessive speculative run-up to earnings (I do expect a mild ramp, but probably just following the market), but once earnings hit, a jump, followed by sustained buying pressure.

So, having just survived Hurricane Juan ( http://www.herald.ns.ca/juandownload/juanphotos.html ) -- only one tree down and three days of power loss for me -- and an unrelated blown circuit board on my main (home) disk drive, swapped with the backup drive's circuit board (always buy two identical disks!) -- here's my forecast: pretty quiet for the next week and a half, then an explosion to $16 on earnings. After that a run to $18 or so into mid-November.

Of course, please do not take this as investment advice; I'm not legally allowed to offer that :).