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DewDiligence

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DewDiligence

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Re: marthambles post# 53

Friday, 09/29/2006 12:44:57 AM

Friday, September 29, 2006 12:44:57 AM

Post# of 1194
Why 0, 1, or 3 (but not 2) successes?

I presume that TELK knows the likely outcome of all three trials (and has known this for many months). I further presume that:

1) TELK would have scheduled at least one reporting day with no failures if at all possible; and

2) If there were some failures and some successes, TELK would have scheduled announcements so that every failure would be “covered” by the simultaneous reporting of at least one success.

Reporting all three results on the same day (what TELK is actually doing) is consistent with both of the above presumptions if there are 0, 1, or 3 successes. However, if there are precisely 2 successes, reporting all of the results on the same day is inconsistent with presumption #1. Hence, I infer that there will not be precisely 2 successes.

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”

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