Re: You are doing exactly the same thing as the AMD bulls that you are constantly putting down about being overly optimistic as far as ramps and all.
Maybe from your point of view, but from my point of view, I am only considering the following facts:
1. NGA is a very powerful and energy efficient micro-architecture that has a lot of people excited.
2. It has a modest die size of ~140mm^2.
3. Intel has as much as 4-6 months to ramp it (aligning with July to September Q3 launch)
4. It will be priced low enough that it will waterfall to all the volume price points.
5. Intel will have several 65nm factories at fairly mature yields.
So given 1-5, a 20% ramp looks overly conservative. You are telling me, "Ignore the facts, and put all your faith in a single Intel NDA slide that leaked to the Inquirer." Do you know how bogus that sounds?
I think you are the one in high need of a reality check.
Re: But you might as well hypothesize that Intel will be 100% NGA by the end of the year. 40% would be more than they are projecting unless they lose a lot of market share...
No. First of all, 30% of the market is Celeron, and Intel will have a significant share here because that segment tends to care more about price than performance, and Intel has enabled some very low cost solutions (lower cost than AMD, judging by the pricing of retail skus).
Second, if NGA is 40% and the remaining 30% is Presler, it is absurd to assume that the market will ignore every single Presler chip that Intel produces, especially since we know the new stepping is competitive in both performance and low power with the current Athlon X2. If AMD gets a couple performance bins ahead in performance, Presler will still sell well, because Conroe will feed the absolute performance enthusiasts, and most of the upper mainstream market as well.
Your market share loss scenario doesn't have much of a logical backing. It's more like wishful thinking, IMO.
AI
