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Wave 5 has arrived! Your target at 1908 should be met by 2pm on Wed of next week when we have the FOMC meeting.
I am sorry for being away for a while… Health problems...
The top may be in. I like the volume spike today.
The counter trend is not over. I would expect it to end tomorrow somewhere in the range 1945-1950 prior to the FOMC announcement at 2pm. Then, we should see a nice impulse down for wave 3. So, far, wave 1 down from the ATH (1955.55-1925.78) was a 3-wave structure, and so is this counter trend.
It is going to be a fun day tomorrow (down-up-DOWN), so buckle up!
PS: I did apply for the mod position, but did not hear back from admin yet...
The data feed in stock charts went dead to avert a market correction. (jk ) Today we are on autopilot. IMHO, no market correction in sight until the FOMC meeting next week. The market meltup will continue until then. Who knows how high we are gonna get until then. 1970 is likely. No one dares to call for a market correction just yet....
IMHO, bulls had enough, for now. Let us have a pullback.
OK, will do that.
It is time to PUT an end to this madness!
ECB went complete nuts with the new NIRP. Welcome the new normal!
European markets are celebrating the news, and the SPX will hit my target today. So, 1935-1937 it is then!
By the looks of it, we will hit my target of 1932-1935 tomorrow. I will be buying SPY puts head over fist then. I will be playing the 193 weekly puts with Jun 13 expiration.
Happy trading everyone!
This is the final push higher (wave 5) before the 1st significant correction. Target is 658-659 by Thu or Fri.
My upside target is not reached yet. I will wait a few more days before going short. The days with big news for the week are Thu and Fri. If we pull back tomorrow and on Wed, then I would expect up days on Thu and Fri, and into next week, to meet my target of 1932-1935.
Smurf, you are BT's best student left on this board, so I think that you should take the lead. Ahsan is already assistant mod. I simply cannot keep an eye on this board 24/7 because of my day-time job...
Since the low in mid April at 1814.36, we have a completed a 5-wave impulse to 1884.89 (70.53 point move). Let us label it wave A. Then, we had a complex zigzag (W-X-Y) for wave B. The final wave C started on May 15, and it will reach equality in length with wave A at 1932.65. This target may be 1-2 days away. So, a little higher we go to complete the C wave, and then there should be a correction of some kind (to the 1900 level, at least!).
Two more points up to 1923 and then reverse. This low volume and slow grind higher is truly frustrating... Yes, the 1900 area is next!
Yep, it is almost time for the 4th wave correction: down to about 1902-1906. Then final thrust higher for another 24 points or so (Mon-Wed). Next week, the catalyst for the big market correction may be at the ECB rate decision on Thu morning, and then the NFP data on Fri. So, in my view, we peak by market close on Wed.
You will be terribly missed O'Brien... I have learned a lot from you, thank you!
Please take care of yourself, and all the best.
We have got the highest weekly close on the $SPX, as suspected. Now what?! Not much bear talk over the weekend, and the ES futures are trading higher already. Soooooo… gap up to 1906 on Tue morning to finish wave 3, and then crap for wave 4 down (to 1886-1890). Then, we will have wave 5 coming up just in time for the EOM window dressing (and highest monthly close for the $SPX). We will top in the 1st week of June, IMHO. If you know in what year the Federal Reserve Act was signed, then you know where we are headed. Once we get there, at 1913 (even better at 1923!!!), I will enter my short position for 10-15 sessions, or so, until the next FOMC meeting in mid June.
This is what my crystal ball is telling me…
Happy trading everyone!
Come on algos, for mother Russia, push the $SPX to new highs!!!
Levitation on low volume, what else to say... Welcome to the new normal!
Have a great long weekend everyone!
Yep, we are gonna see those new highs, as early as tomorrow - slow grinding higher on low volume. The VIX is breaking down to new 52 week low...
IMHO, they will push the markets to new highs this week. We have FOMC minutes at 2pm on Wed, and then long holiday weekend ahead.
I also think that we will have a rally this week. Gap up slightly on Mon to around 1882, then pull back. Once we form a higher low (1870-1873), then we rally higher. The third cowboy will show up on Mon. :)
Have a good weekend everyone.
That was a brief wave 5. Wave B counter trend up now... It should die before 1883.
I see R2 on the 60-min chart at 1847-ish. We should get there with the gap down tomorrow.
OK, bounce time! IMHO, we go back up to 1875, then down to 1850 to complete the down move.
To me it seems that the setup on the daily chart is similar to that we had in early April when we dropped almost 90 points in 6 sessions. I expect a week bounce today to the BB CL on the 60-min chart and fail there.
I also liked the fertilizer stuff - excellent analogy!
I hope you feel better these days.
I think that the move up on Mon and Tue was an ABC. This wave down is a 5-wave structure and it could the start of a new downtrend (5-1). If we fail to make a new high by Fri (for wave 5-2), then down we go for the rest of the month.
Thanks, I will watch the action very closely today. What is the upside target? R2 on the 60-min chart, or the upper BB - 1910? More like the latter.
My thoughts precisely too! I am all cash waiting for a short entry into the gap.
This correction was rather shallow. I made a small profit on SPY puts, but I was expecting a deeper correction. Oh well, wait until tomorrow.
Looking good! We should bottom by 3:15pm, and then final thrust higher for wave 5 into tomorrow. I
I think that it is time for the pullback now - wave 4.
Gap up (1904?) and crap tomorrow? RSI(7) on the daily at 68+,so it is almost time! Of course, this first drop will be wave 4, then we wait for 5 up to finsh and go short for the rest of the month.
It is always a pleasure to discuss $SPX with you guys! Have a good weekend everyone!
More fun next week!
Looking good! Now let us see if the contracting triangle plays out, as I suggested.
Done! Now let us move up.
Correct! We should stay above 1859.79. I think we are done (or almost done) with the e-wave.
BUT, before we drop to 1814, as you said, we should first see new highs: 1919-ish until options expiration next Fri. Correct?
I think that $SPX trades in a contracting triangle on the 60-min chart: (a) at 1850.61, (b) at 1891.33, (c) at 1859.69, (d) at 1889.07 (yesterday), and now (e) to be completed today. Then violent 5-wave move to the upside before the big correction to 1814. What do you think?
We may see the first pullback at 1891. If not, at R1 on the 60-min chart (at 1898).
Mission accomplished! Up we go!
Perhaps it was just an ABC down rather than a 5-wave? The BB CL on the 60-min is at 1875.59. Let us see if we can surpass that today.