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Move stops on shorts to 3015.6, and enter 2 units long on stops at 3032.3, risking 2998
Error!! The FLD36 was breached last week near 2990 giving obj approx 3080. 36day low due mid Nov is now questionable.
A TL connecting high closes last 6 months or so crossed at 3000 area yesterday, and was broken. OldSchool says 2nd close over TL is valid action signal. This would imply that the 43week low we have been seeking, and expecting mid Nov may have already happened.
ATH plus a margin would strongly suggest an impulse to 3080 or higher.
The news and commentary goes one way, and the mkt goes the opposite. I hope the mkt takes big drop before going higher.
SPX Expecting 36day low to occur with other lows, at nest bottom. Targeting Nov18, a week after the nest of other lows. The top of this 36day is likely done, and low Monday will give weak bounce, followed by DOWN into mid Nov.
There is always a chance, however unlikely it might be. IMHO a break of 2825-2800 would indicate a move MUCH below 2700, and therefore one has to play for a bottom 2825-2850, if that low. I am really ready for an oversold reversal, and afraid it might not happen.
"Major Cyclic Lows" does not require significant price drop. What occurs is a change in velocity and not necessarily even a change in direction.
Major cyclical lows are due, and reversals from short term cyclic lows provide entry points for longs going into 1Q2020. Next 9day low is expected nominally Monday. This may start a series of small loss long positions as the LOW is sought.
I will be posting infrequently in future. Note the 1min OBV shows no conviction for buyers. Breaking of obv lows (when SPX was 2960-70) will be very negative.
OT: things seem "wrong" today. Traders whose mkt opinion has been "dead on" have become rabidly, emotionally, committed to the opposite view seemingly overnight. Mkt swings 2% either direction on little more than spilled coffee. "Old school" analysis says situation has not changed but people seem to be nervously looking around, paranoid...
Maybe it's me that is getting paranoid..maybe it is the news junkie getting poor quality news and wanting to puke..
SPX obj 2873-2814. Hi is with ZERO contribution from 19day cycle, low us with average contribution. Using 9day cycle, range is 2859-2816. Time target is mid Oct, but obj area is not dependent on calendar.
When px is under 2860, use your favorite indicators and get long and hrir your teeth. Must hold and wait for uptrend.
SPX add another on stop at 2937.7. Today only
Added 1 unit short SPX at 2951.9, now holding 5.5 units short
avg 2984.4
I have seen comments about the rising unemployment rates before, particularly when the rate is super low, and I am a believer. Second, time will tell re mkt, but still playing short side expecting res 2965 -3020 to stop the rise and still expecting small high early week vs BIG low following week. Enjoy the weekend...
Exactly. Violation of short term uptrend line will confirm high. Lows mid week next.
No proof of anything until below 2910-2910. Waiting for developments..
$SPX wild day. 43/21.5week and 36day lows due approx 10/17 with Price target 2862-2800 which the low of 2855 for a few minutes hardly fulfills. Short term high due early next week. Res 2938 and 2967.
Holding 4.5units short avg 2991.2 and waiting for the terminal stage of this cyclical decline. Will liq scale down 2852-2827, and reverse on proper signals near mid Oct or later.
Yes it went under 2862, but if you blinked your eyes you may hv missed it. IMHO not a valid entry into the zone.
The low for the 43week cycle is estimated to be 2862-2800. I will go long on signals related to CCI for that cycle AFTER price enters that terminal region.
Just getting in the Halloween mood...
You're doing great. Keep the faith...
FWIW, I think the target of 2801 smells right. Timing is a little early for me, but then this dramatic move was more than I expected so why not earlier than expected. Keep up the good work, North, and thank you.
Parties are fun, but the hangovers can be debilitating. Covering shorts when grossly oversold usually leads to an opportunity to short again at a higher point, or at least with better risk/reward.
Prior studies show strong positive gains 3-6 months after a major decline. Moral to the story is to gather and protect your powder, because a substantial move will follow this decline. But wait for it...use trendline breaks to confirm the bottom, or LT cci signals. Then buy decent funds and forget them. OFVIX is one, DSENX, is another. MBXIX is a good commodity fund. And of course hard assets for inflation protection. Physicals and in ground assets. Big miners, timber companies, uranium producers, etc. Prepare for LT hold after BTFD actions.
Be alert, and take care.
Prior studies show strong positive gains 3-6 months after a major decline. Moral to the story is to gather and protect your powder, because a substantial move will follow this decline. But wait for it...use trendline breaks to confirm the bottom, or LT cci signals. Then buy decent funds and forget them. OFVIX is one, DSENX, is another. MBXIX is a good commodity fund. And of course hard assets for inflation protection. Physicals and in ground assets. Big miners, timber companies, uranium producers, etc. Prepare for LT hold after BTFD actions.
Be alert, and take care.
The FLD 72 was breached in 2910 area, giving obj 2800 area. Another one. Clusters become a magnet. 2800-2850 will be a very significant area.
The FLD for 3.3yr cycle is 2800 area moving to 2825-2850 next week. While a violation would be a major negative if sustained, the FLD more likely will be a major source of support. Combined with prior lows 2825 area, I believe 2850-2825 should be a place to cover shorts, and on proper TA signals potentially take some initial longs.
Oddlot
COVER SHORTS scale down 2852-2827
USD shorted 1unit 45.70, maintain order at 46.70.
I am the original chicken little. The global debt is such that in a serious economic decline, everyone goes bust including govts. The only alternative will be to try to print their way out of the hole, but this merely devalues all currencies. So what is stable? Gold? Bitcoin??
Own as little as possible. Live in a cheap environment (thinking of Ecuador). Invest in necessities, and production of necessities.
Assuming no end-of-world event, gold and hard assets in the ground sound good. And not kidding, look at uranium.
$SPX FLD 36 was crossed near 2960, creating obj near 2900. This, and the round #, will probably create a bounce before continuing lower.
$SPX position update holding 4.5 units short. Avg 2991.7, with stop 3013.
$SPX FLD216 was 2943 today, and close causes slope of halfwave to flip negative, creating obj of approx 2860. Pnf obj match. Time target is 10/17.
That projection was off of course. Should hv been 2975-3005. Just minor error of 100pts.
SPX holding 4.5units short with stop 3013. Position update to follow.
The high of the last 9day cycle occurred 7days ago, and 9days would be on Wednesday. The avg amplitude (1std dev) is approx 30pts, and 2 SD is more likely to approx the range. That est for rally high of 3105. 3075-3105 is a reasonable est for range of rallyvpeak, and scale up at 1/2 unit quantities is also reasonable. I already did this on the 4.5 day cycle and do not wish to add more at the same levels.
I expect the mkt to be weak by Friday.
That sounds like a PLAN!
Consolidation followed by reversal. Got it.
Uranium cyclic structure similar to other metals. Look for next CCJ low nominally Jan2020 under 8.50, or in conjunction with gold 1350-1400.
This could be the next 10yr bull market.
SciFi becomes fact. Remember the movie Soylent Green
Correction: potash=potassium, not phosphorus
Another problem, similar, is that our food production is depndent on fertilizer. We take it for granted, but the phosphorus component has expanded dramatically with the mining of sedimentary potash. However, the end of that will be reached in 20-30yrs and we will be back to manure. There is not enough manure to feed the additional billions of people added since potash mining commenced.
CCJ consider DollarCostAveraging in CCJ. Uranium is below the cost of production, and usage is greater than production. Purchases by utilities have been low because no one is afraid of scarcity, but at some point that will turn with a vengeance. This is a CLASSIC opportunity long term. Get it while cheap!!!
There is a Globex futures contract on uranium, and the downtrend on the continuous spot chart was broken. Therefore, a good pullback in CCJ should be bought. This is a LTBH, so dont be aggressive re the bid. Just wait for it. But the price appreciation potential is huge for owners of resource.