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Re Gold, I heard comment that hedge funds were short at historically large (record!) amounts, based on dollar strength. Sounds like a monumental short squeeze in the offing, but again, the question is When.
Own it!! You cant buy flood insurance when it is raining.
Oddlot
It has been called "musical chairs with Investors". When it starts, the door will be too small. The only issue is Timing.
Whether the drop is 40, 60, or 80% is not the question. Not IF, but WHEN.
Holding shorts in Russell via TWM. Believe trendline based on
MA50/MA54 will catch the high of the cycle, and a slower TL based on MA200/216 will cfm high of 3.3yr cycle with nominal low scheduled for week 22 of 2019.
Hussman's low may not occur until 2022-2023, but IMHO being "out" or "short" is a lot safer than being long with exception of catastrophe insurance in the form of Gold.
Oddlot
Disagree. Major obj at 3.10 yld was met. Expecting sideways yo lower rates, ditto for UUP, and sideways to higher for metals.
OT WTIC looks weaker at the same time that XLE:$WTIC looks weaker. So XLE could really suffer.
Generally true. Anything with inherent value will be better than paper and promises. The item needs to be in your possession and control, and not a promise to be fulfilled thru society, contracts, and courts.
That is why "barter" is the backstop when the financial system comes apart.
Oddlot
TWM bot 14.26, risking to 13.20. Russel 2000 is not distorted by FANG stocks. Trendline breaks and other signals imply the Top is in. Time will tell...
Oddlot
Top is potentially in for IWM and by extension, other mkts. Bot TWM, the -2x etf for Russel 2000, at 14.26, risking to 13.20.
The cyclic structure has a 3.3yr cycle, with 4 cycles within of nominally 43weeks. The third 43week low was early, occurring in April. The next events are a high, followed by a 3.3yr low nominally in week22 of 2019. The goal is to be short during the decline, as this is a grossly overvalued mkt.
The slope of the 43week cycle can be approximated by the slope of the MA54, and a trendline drawn with the MA54 slope and placed against recent price action gives signal of cyclic top when violated. This and other signals occurred today.
This may be one more failed attempt to short at the right time, but one has to keep trying.
Oddlot
Trendlines over last few months in GLD, FXE, UUP are being challenged or broken. Z-Hedge has story re China lowering rates, and doing stealthy QE. Things are changing...
Re GLD: place stop stop at 110.90.
Thus would have spot below 1175 and obj would be 1000-1050.
Oddlot
I understand the goal, but the path might be improved if your "universe" were screened for availability of data, and potential problem stocks were removed. Problems in the sense of very low current ratios showing financial vulnerability, exorbitant PSR (price relative to sales per share) and other criteria. Few LT winners would leave, but many disasters would be prevented. However, if your average hold is several weeks, fundamentals have no importance.
Re MARK: the chart is interesting but not a buy. Fundamentals per finviz are not good, except that insiders are substantial owners and buying more. So, do you know anything to justify their buying?
Oddlot
SDS out at 35.88. I guess SPX headed to 2875 or so.
Oddlot
Added SDS at 36.09, risking to 35
88. Now holding two.
Oddlot
Holding short IWM at 165.96, with stop at 169.07
Reinstate SDS on stop 36.27 risking to 35.88 if filled.
Oddlot
Go Short IWM on stop at 165.97 risking 169.07.
Oddlot
No argument here. Note LT pnf, using weekly atr(200), shows UUP in upward retracement of down pattern, while FXE is down in up pattern. When/if trend resumes, the potential upmove in gold is huge.
While "knowing" implies a certainty re the future which is unobtainable, the conditions today support a fear of the future. Bull mkts rally on fear and end when all are fearless and long. IMHO we have a small additional potential, to 3200 +/-100, but I dont "know" either.
Search for recent comments re Paul Tudor Jobes as an example of grounded fears.
A famous quote, author unknown, re bubbles is that they make every one a an idiot. You either experience huge opportunity cost, or real dollar loss during the break.
Good trades to you.
Oddlot
SDS out of one at 35.93 holding the other with stop at 35.88. Looks like the wrong time to play the bear side even temporarily.
Oddlot
I will compromise. LT 3200, medium term 2880, short term dip to 2720-2740. Against my better judgement Icam building a position in SDS with tight stops. Will add at 36.43 on stop risking 50pts.
Oddlot
SDS add another on stop at 36.43, risking to 35
93 for today only.
Oddlot
SDS add another on stop at 36.57, risking 60pts, today only.
Oddlot
SDS bot 36.08 with stop 35.88. Holding frm 36.26 with stop 35.93
Oddlot
I dont know. Must be living right.
SDS add to position on stop at 36.47.
Oddlot
SDS bot 36.26 with stop 35.93.
SDS bot 36.26 with stop 35.93.
SPX above 2790 gives new short term obj 2880.
SPX above 2790 gives short term obj 2880 or so.
Sounds interesting but at $150-350 per MONTH you have to be swinging a big stick.
Euro hit a long term bottom, and gold is slow to follow but it will.
Slope of 9day MA about to rurn positive, giving obj on 18day cycle of 2810. Meanwhile, cci for 18day uz +200, usually a turning point. Stay tuned, thinking a good system short
Re SPX: looking for high on 18day cycle next week. 2790 was major high, next event is major low within 6 weeks. 2585 area is one of several critical areas.
Note also copper. Obj below $2.00, consistent with severe recession.
Oddlot
Added 2 GLD at 117.77 yesterday, making total of six with avg of 120.87.
Alternate order basis UUP was cancelled.
Oddlot
Added 2 GLD at 117.77 yesterday, making total of 6 at avg of 120.87. Cancel the alternate order basis UUP.
Oddlot
Re GLD: if dollar drops and UUP hits 24.88, buy the 2 units of GLD and cancel order at 117.77.
Re GLD: add 2 units at 117.77 with stop at 114.77. Holding 4 units with avg of 122.41.
Oddlot
It appears that UUP will continue higher until 25.60 area at which time gold will deserve a close look.
Oddlot
IF the dollar drop ckntinues as implied by yhe weekly buy of TLT, then gold should find a bid.
Oddlot
Re gold, stayed longer than was prudent. UUP and FXE have further to go. Meanwhile, 1200 spot is likely to be magical or cursed, depending on your viewpoint. Will hold until 1185.
Oddlot
KEM stopped out at 24.07