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Cycle status: 8/15 was a nominal 36day low, a few days early. Rally then failure today gave cci sells on 9/18/36 day cycles. Next 18day low is due Sept 7, and the 36 and 72 day lows are due nominally Oct 3.
Also of interest, the 96week low for Gold is due Oct 14. Early October may get very interesting.
Oddlot
Cci for 18 and 9day cycles gave sell. Proper time, and short term TL broken. Bot SDS 34.38 with stop 34.14. Will see where it goes.
Oddlot
Bot SDS at 34.38 with stop 34.14.
Oddlot
Re SDS lower entry stop to 34.46
Buy SDS on stop at 34.53, risking 60pts. Cxl former order
Oddlot
Potential move in XLB is HUGE.
A consolidation area has been built over a period of months, and the potential move is 30pts from a price of 60.
The base is still intact, and a new pnf signal has not been given. Other considerations led to my short recommendation.
Check it out, and draw your own conclusion.
Oddlot
Added short XLB at 58.88, with stop at 60.23.
Oddlot
Position/Rec update.
Holding Long TWM at 14.26 with stop at 13.20. Add on stop at 15.12, risking 100pts.
Holding short XLE at 75.90. Add short at 76.38, with stop on all at 78.33.
Buy SDS on stop at 34.86, risking 50pts.
Sell short XLB 58.88, with stop 60.23.
Oddlot
Are you still out there? If so, I would like to discuss some things.
Oddlot
WTIC has given sell signal with cyclical low expected 3Q2019. Holding short in XLE. Expecting downtrend to continue into mid 2019.
Oddlot
XLE: be cautious but be SHORT. Next major low due early fall 2019 in WTIC. This analysis is independent of SPX, but conclusion is similar in that 3.3yr equity low is due May2019. Stocks lead the economy by 6 months, so an increase in input demand should come strictly from spec inventory building in anticipation of economic stabilization. Assuming XLE low in advance of WTIC low.
Oddlot
Thanks. Regardless of my cyclic expectations, I don't have confirmation of the 216day cycle top until price goes down thru the channel surrounding the 72day centered MA. Approx level for that is 2775.
Oddlot
Good work. I have a 9day high Monday and an 18day high in 1 or 2 days. They should occur together of course.
IMHO the 43week and 3.3yr high is at hand, and from this area we should decline to mid-2019.
Oddlot
Please clarify re whether you agree with bearish attitude, or if you favor buy the dip which you imply is coming. Or did I misread..
Oddlot
Placing order to buy SDS 34.57
The 3.3yr high is in, probably.
This short term bounce will give a great opportunity to short. Looking to buy SDS on further weakness today, or early Monday.
Oddlot
My approach leads to the following:
A 36day high was overdue, and then filled. To be followed by cyclic low due approx 8/22.
Meanwhile, the 9day cycle suggests that the rally may end Monday. The channel around the 9day CMA, which is an educated guess, would suggest 2857 as reasonable place to short for the move towards 2750-2760. New highs are not expected prior to 8/22 and would serve as a stop point.
Oddlot
Thank you, and the others, for the welcome. I need to study your terminology, but my question pertains to the wavelengths or cycle lengths for which you seek highs/lows. If you consider that to be proprietary I understand.
Oddlot.
Unfortunately not. Smartphone only, run by tech illiterate who cant make links, cut and paste. and other simple operations. I would blame it on the phone but it would get mad...
Oddlot
Northam, I apologize for bursting into the scene so abruptly. I mean no disrespect.
Do you have/use a cycle of approx 40-43weeks, or one of approx 3.3yrs?
Oddlot
If SPX goes below the channel surrounding the centered 72dma, lower boundary of which is 2780-85 currently, then the evidence is present for the tops to be in place for the 43week and 3.3yr cycles. If so, the mkt would be would be expected to trend towards the low scheduled 22W2019.
Obviously this would not be a small gentle move down, so watch carefully and take appropriate protective measures.
The signal from 9day FLD is in play while 18day is not yet done. Crossing at approx 2807 gives obj of 2753 area.
A move to that area will raise serious questions re whether the high for the 3.3yr cycle is in place, and mkt is trending toward 3.3yr low.
Oddlot
I use a cycle structure of 9/18/36/72/216 days and intraday. The 36day cycle high is in place, with next low due 8/22. FLD procedure for intraday 9 and 18 day lengths both give signals at 2805-2810, with resulting obj of approx 2750 (FLD 18 day meshes with 36day expected date).
I hope that these comments can flesh out the cyclic situation.
Northam, your reputation is excellent, and many of your followers are known to be superior traders. I hope you find my material helpful.
Oddlot
SPX obj now approx 2750 based on FLD 18 day procedure intraday. Meshes with the 36day cycle with next low expected 8/22.
Oddlot
Re XLB: go short at 59.33, risking to 60.33. Will add to short at violation of support at lower levels.
Oddlot
Also look at materials. Oversold and due a bounce, but a good short afterwards.
Oddlot
Re XLE: holding short with expectations of downtrend into mid 2019. Will cover at 65 if available, and make LTBH investment at 64, with stop under 59.
Oddlot
Re XLE: holding short from 75.90 early in Aug. Expect decline towards low mid 2019.
Will cover near 65 if available, and would make a LTBH investment at 64 with stop 59.
Oddlot
GLD opened above my stop, and then declined. Stopped out at 113.37.
Oddlot
Re GLD: placing stop at 113.37.
If hit, move may go to 100. Reentry is always an option
Oddlot
Re GLD: placing stop at 113.37. If stopped out, obj may be as low as 100. Dont know that I believe it, but can always reenter on reversal.
Oddlot
Re FXE: stopped out of long FXE from 112.20 at 109.45.
Re Dax: assuming same cyclical structure as SPX, DAX is in a downswing to bottom of channel surrounding the 3.3yr cycle. That boundary is 10500-10750 currently with slow uptrend.
Oddlot
XLY stopped 112.13; XLK still short, stop 73.13.
Expect 6week high this week, declining to low next week, which will be a buy point.
Oddlot
Short XLE at 75.90 OB, risking to 78.22.
Oddlot
Shorted XLY 110.62, risking to 112.13.
Shorted XLK 71.49, risking to 73.13.
Oddlot
Shorted XLY and XLK
Sold XLY 110.62. risking to 112.13.
Sold XLK 71.49, risking to 73.13
Oddlot
Re SPY: The decline was on dayc19 of an 18day nominal cycle. I expect a tepid bounce, and then more decline. Several sectors have given sell signals, but are also pending bounce. Will look to add various items on minimal bounce. Holding short Russel, long gold, looking to short XLY and XLK
Re sectors:
Holding TWM, a -2x Russel etf.
Waiting on bounce to short XLY and XLK (consumer discretionary and technology). Probably the 18day CCI in intraday.
Oddlot
Apply your approach to some bear ETFs. 3X will kill you, but 1x and 2x are close to normal.
And personally, small stocks with volume and little else do scare me. You might eliminate the smallest caps, the ones with only a story, from your universe.
Oddlot