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SDS bot at 33.67 with stop 33.37. Still looking for the 72day low in Oct.
Oddlot
SDS bot at 33.67 with stop 33.37. Still looking for the 72day low in Oct.
Oddlot
WTI oil is in a LT downtrend, with relatively consistent patterns mimicking LT cycles in equities. A monthly chart with centered MAs of 80/40/20 etc shows a downtrending channel ranging from 85 to 25, and this is month 31 with next low due mid 2019. I suspect the shale oil situation would become dire long before prices reached the lower end of the range.
XLE is in a downtrending channel around the 72day CMA ranging 7675-7150. The 43week channel is uptrending with low approx 7250.
A break to 7200 would probably lead to 65.00, but chart potentials are much lower with a drop below 60 making lower 20's possible if recessionary forces put economy in a tailspin.
Oddlot
Position/rec update:
Short XLE 75.90, stop at 78.33. Last at 74.26
Short SMH 106.40, with stop 113.33. Last 106.68.
Short VEU 52.57, Stop 54.33. Last 51.41.
Short (2) XLB 59.44, stop 61.33. Last 59.41.
Short GLD 113.12, stop 115.33. Last 113.02.
Short UUP 25.22, stop 25.43.
During the week, I was stopped out of SDS at 33.47, and SPY at 290.33.
Obj for top of 43week cycle is approx 3100, and then declining to a low mid 2019. The 72day cyclic low is due early/mid October and will hopefully provide an entry for the last part of this bull move.
Position/rec update:
Short XLE 75.90, stop at 78.33. Last at 74.26
Short SMH 106.40, with stop 113.33. Last 106.68.
Short VEU 52.57, Stop 54.33. Last 51.41.
Short (2) XLB 59.44, stop 61.33. Last 59.41.
Short GLD 113.12, stop 115.33. Last 113.02.
Short UUP 25.22, stop 25.43.
During the week, I was stopped out of SDS at 33.47, and SPY at 290.33.
Obj for top of 43week cycle is approx 3100, and then declining to a low mid 2019. The 72day cyclic low is due early/mid October and will hopefully provide an entry for the last part of this bull move.
Thanks for trying to understand. Sorry I was unable to explain it clearly.
Alternate channel method
Since the mkt blasted through the upper boundary some time ago, an alternate method would be to identify important central points of the channel and draw a line thru them. Imho the relevant points are where centered moving averages of the harmonic set intersect. This happens in July2015 and March3l2018. Prices exceeded the line by approx 225pts. The 225 amount over the extrapolation gives approx 3050 currently, confirming that we have further upside potential.
You are focusing on a 3.5yr cycle, while I use a 3.3yr. Otherwise, very compatible approach.
I use the slope of the average (literally, a line drawn over the last 1-2 months of the average, and then moved and extended) to create a line which is anchored near the prior 3.5yr low. This creates a "channel" surrounding the trend of 3.5yrs, which encloses the cycle riding upon the trend. A parallel line across the prior 3.5yr high completes the channel.
Current expectations for the high of this move remain near 3100, although I expect(?) a low in mid October from which to embark on the last stage of this bull move.
Oddlot
Deva, 2907 target was filled but things are becoming confused. The expectation of mid Oct low would seem to rule out new highs, and the 18day target via FLD is 2835 area. But the FLD9, for the 18day cycle, would generate an obj above 2930 if SPX closes above 2900 area today, with the signal area falling rapidly. If we dont go down from here rather quickly, all expectations will be negated.
Oddlot
SDS stopped out at 33.47 for small loss. Still bearish. Will go again soon.
UUP: holding short at 25.22 with stop at 25.43
GLD: holding short at 113.12 with stop at 115.33. Obj potentially to 103 but will treat it strictly as a trendfollowing trade.
Oddlot
GLD: holding short at 113.12 with stop at 115.33. Obj potentially to 103 but will treat it strictly as a trendfollowing trade.
The recent rally towards 115 occurred with the 60day cyclic high that was due. This consolidation will probably resolve to the downside, and for that reason I am attempting a short position.
Oddlot
Various stories about a "global liquidity crisis" brought about by the Fed's quantitative tightening. Sometimes even the big boys have to sell what they can, not what they want. It happened in 2008 and it could happen again. I am a short and own nothing. That could change quickly, but currently a bear. Holding shorts in SPX, VEU, ETFs in materials, energy, and semis.
Trying to short GLD and the dollar.
Oddlot
Go short UUP 25.20 OB, with stop 25.43
Oddlot
Go short GLD 112.90 OB, with stop 115.33. Lets see if 108 is in the cards.
Oddlot
Go short GLD 112.90 OB, with stop 115.33. Lets see if 108 is in the cards.
Oddlot
Target 2907 based on 4.5day FLD translated to 10min chart. IMHO, the cycle in play is the 18day with high due in approx 8-10 days, and average amplitude is consistent with this target.
Oddlot
Target 2907 based on 4.5day FLD translated to 10min chart. IMHO, the cycle in play is the 18day with high due in approx 8-10 days, and average amplitude is consistent with this target.
Oddlot
Target 2907 based on 4.5day FLD translated to 10min chart. IMHO, the cycle in play is the 18day with high due in approx 8-10 days, and average amplitude is consistent with this target.
Oddlot.
Rally to 2905 area in progress.
The decline of 8 days to low of 2864 implies that the 18day cycle is the one to watch, with a high likely in another 8-10"days. The average (1 std dev) amplitude for the 18day us approx 40pts, giving target of 2904 or a little higher. The underlying trendcisvtye question, and eith the 72day cyclic low due in Oct, the trend is likely to be down. If so, the high is likely 2910 or lower.
The volume by price chart shows highest volume over 18days centered near 2900, so my guess is that it will turn just under 2900.
Oddlot
Rally to 2905 area in progress.
The decline of 8 days to low of 2864 implies that the 18day cycle is the one to watch, with a high likely in another 8-10"days. The average (1 std dev) amplitude for the 18day us approx 40pts, giving target of 2904 or a little higher. The underlying trendcisvtye question, and eith the 72day cyclic low due in Oct, the trend is likely to be down. If so, the high is likely 2910 or lower.
The volume by price chart shows highest volume over 18days centered near 2900, so my guess is that it will turn just under 2900.
Oddlot
Glen, take a look at XLI:XLP weekly over 5-10yr period. Ratio of industrials to staples. A high in 2014 followed by low in early 2016. This ratio peaked in May and started steadily lower.
Perhaps another sign that this mkt is headed lower into 2019.
Oddlot
Added TAO to monitor list, looking to short on rally. Residential credit situation in China is similar to USA 2007.
Added TAO to monitor list, looking to short on rally. Residential credit situation in China is similar to USA 2007.
The expected high on approx day65/Oct1 coincides with the new govt fiscal year and threats by Trump to not sign a budget bill if funding for the wall is not included. The new FY and budgetary concerns may be the excuse for a decline, so expected.
Oddlot.
The expected high on approx day65/Oct1 coincides with the new govt fiscal year and threats by Trump to not sign a budget bill if funding for the wall is not included. The new FY and budgetary concerns may be the excuse for a decline, so expected.
Oddlot.
Expectations for SPX short-term
Monday is day50 from beginning of this, the second of three 72day cycles. The 36day low occurred on time (-2 days) and the next 18day low is scheduled for day 54 (-2?), or Friday.
The superposition of the 36 and 18 day cycles upon the 72day gave a possible high very near the actual high, and the next "possible" date is approx day 65. This should be 18days from the prior high.
Then we go down to the 72day low, at which all of the lows are nested.
I suspect that the pattern from from the low later this week will appear as a consolidation pattern of some type, from which we break down. Leg counts, etc, will come into play at that time. I think there is a reasonable chance of a 2790 target, which if it were realized, would confirm the high on the 43week (and of necessity the 3.3yr) and confirm that the next major event would be the 3.3yr low in mid 2019.
Oddlot
Expectations for SPX short-term
Monday is day50 from beginning of this, the second of three 72day cycles. The 36day low occurred on time (-2 days) and the next 18day low is scheduled for day 54 (-2?), or Friday.
The superposition of the 36 and 18 day cycles upon the 72day gave a possible high very near the actual high, and the next "possible" date is approx day 65. This should be 18days from the prior high.
Then we go down to the 72day low, at which all of the lows are nested.
I suspect that the pattern from from the low later this week will appear as a consolidation pattern of some type, from which we break down. Leg counts, etc, will come into play at that time. I think there is a reasonable chance of a 2790 target, which if it were realized, would confirm the high on the 43week (and of necessity the 3.3yr) and confirm that the next major event would be the 3.3yr low in mid 2019.
Oddlot
I hope that you are well...
Oddlot
Major highs due Now, or soon.
Superpositioning of multiple cycles is the basis for the expectation.
Assume you have two sine waves, one of period L and the other with period L/2, and they begin at the same low point. At the time L/2, the longer cycle is at its theoretical high and the shorter cycle is at its low. The combination of the two is just the addition of the two waves. If the amplitudes are the same, the combination will peak at two points, L/4 on either side of the peak of the longer individual cycle.
When analyzing the harmonic set of equity cycles, you have a repetitive occurrence of one peaking while the next shorter cycle is bottoming, and one must shift the expected high in an iterative fashion. Thankfully, as the wavelength shortens, the amplitude shrinks and 3 or four cycles is as much confusion as you need endure.
An example would be the current market. All cycles started together at the 6th week of 2016, and with a primary wavelength of 6.6yrs, the high of main cycle would be at 3.3yrs, or late May 2019. The 3.3yr cycle low should also be at that point. The combination should result in a high at 1.65yrs from the beginning or approx Nov2017, or 1.65 yrs after May 2019.
This high point is also a low for the L/4 cycle, meaning the high could be 10 months on either side of Nov2017. It was obviously Not Feb2017, but might be Aug2018.
And this continues ad nauseam but the point is that the acceptable theoretical points for the high are Now or shortly to come, or are in mid 2020. As this is the longest running bull market in history, and the most overvalued, the odds favor Now instead of 2020.
How low can it go in 2019??
The rabid bears say 1400 is neutral territory, and the low might be 30-50% under that. I feel that eventually the mkt may go down that far, it won't be in 2019. I feel the low will be 1700-2000, and then rally for 1-2 yrs. Then we try for the apocalyptic outcome.
I expect a major bottom, smelling like panic capitulation in 2nd-3rd week of October, which will likely be a great place to invest for a TRADE but not as a Buy and Forget. This will probably be a Low in Gold, also.
Good luck.
Oddlot
Superposition of cycles suggests MAJOR high.
Assume you have two sine waves, one of period L and the other with period L/2, and they begin at the same low point. At the time L/2, the longer cycle is at its theoretical high and the shorter cycle is at its low. The combination of the two is just the addition of the two waves. If the amplitudes are the same, the combination will peak at two points, L/4 on either side of the peak of the longer individual cycle.
When analyzing the harmonic set of equity cycles, you have a repetitive occurrence of one peaking while the next shorter cycle is bottoming, and one must shift the expected high in an iterative fashion. Thankfully, as the wavelength shortens, the amplitude shrinks and 3 or four cycles is as much confusion as you need endure.
An example would be the current market. All cycles started together at the 6th week of 2016, and with a primary wavelength of 6.6yrs, the high of main cycle would be at 3.3yrs, or late May 2019. The 3.3yr cycle low should also be at that point. The combination should result in a high at 1.65yrs from the beginning or approx Nov2017, or 1.65 yrs after May 2019.
This high point is also a low for the L/4 cycle, meaning the high could be 10 months on either side of Nov2017. It was obviously Not Feb2017, but might be Aug2018.
And this continues ad nauseam but the point is that the acceptable theoretical points for the high are Now or shortly to come, or are in mid 2020. As this is the longest running bull market in history, and the most overvalued, the odds favor Now instead of 2020.
How low can it go in 2019??
The rabid bears say 1400 is neutral territory, and the low might be 30-50% under that. I feel that eventually the mkt may go down that far, it won't be in 2019. I feel the low will be 1700-2000, and then rally for 1-2 yrs. Then we try for the apocalyptic outcome.
I expect a major bottom, smelling like panic capitulation in 2nd-3rd week of October, which will likely be a great place to invest for a TRADE but not as a Buy and Forget. This will probably be a Low in Gold.
Oddlot
The daily FLD 9, transposed to 10min data, will likely give a signal tomorrow. Starting at 2865, ending tomorrow at 2875, and averaging 2872, it will likely signal a move towards 2835 or lower.
Oddlot
The daily FLD 9, transposed to 10min data, will likely give a signal tomorrow. Starting at 2865, ending tomorrow at 2875, and averaging 2872, it will likely signal a move towards 2835 or lower.
Oddlot
The daily FLD 9, transposed to 10min data, will likely give a signal tomorrow. Starting at 2865, ending tomorrow at 2875, and averaging 2872, it will likely signal a move towards 2835 or lower.
Oddlot
Gold in October
Gold has done things that I and few others expected, but current analysis indicates the following:
The longer term patterns are flat. An 8 year cycle hits prior lows accurately, and the centered moving average (CMA)for that time frame is flat. The last such low occurred at 1050 spot, and it is reasonable to expect a move towards that level although probably not exact.
The 96week CMA is in steady downtrend, and the channel around it is consistent with a possible move to 1100-1050.
If appropriate CMA's are extrapolated forward, the point of intersection gives an indication of the extent of the remaining move. That point occurs 50% thru the total move, and indicates a high probability of a continued move of the same size. The weekly CMA96 intersects prices and short term averages at approx 1235, while the projected CMA49 intersects at approx 1245. If 1240 is used for calculation, and a starting figure of 1360 is used (highs touched or barely exceeded 1360 on four occasions before the downtrend started), the move to the halfway point was 120 pts and the likely obj is approx 1120 vs current levels of 1205.
Buying opportunities occur when cycles of different lengths have lows at the same time, and this is called nesting. With sets of harmonic cycles, all members of length less than N are expected to bottom at the same time as N. This creates an exaggerated low, and a rapid recovery from that low.
A nested low of 96weeks and shorter will occur in mid October, which will create a great buying opportunity.
A "panic" low in gold may also represent a buying opportunity in other things. Equities, bonds, and currencies may make significant turns at that time.
Oddlot
Gold in October
Gold has done things that I and few others expected, but current analysis indicates the following:
The longer term patterns are flat. An 8 year cycle hits prior lows accurately, and the centered moving average (CMA)for that time frame is flat. The last such low occurred at 1050 spot, and it is reasonable to expect a move towards that level although probably not exact.
The 96week CMA is in steady downtrend, and the channel around it is consistent with a possible move to 1100-1050.
If appropriate CMA's are extrapolated forward, the point of intersection gives an indication of the extent of the remaining move. That point occurs 50% thru the total move, and indicates a high probability of a continued move of the same size. The weekly CMA96 intersects prices and short term averages at approx 1235, while the projected CMA49 intersects at approx 1245. If 1240 is used for calculation, and a starting figure of 1360 is used (highs touched or barely exceeded 1360 on four occasions before the downtrend started), the move to the halfway point was 120 pts and the likely obj is approx 1120 vs current levels of 1205.
Buying opportunities occur when cycles of different lengths have lows at the same time, and this is called nesting. With sets of harmonic cycles, all members of length less than N are expected to bottom at the same time as N. This creates an exaggerated low, and a rapid recovery from that low.
A nested low of 96weeks and shorter will occur in mid October, which will create a great buying opportunity.
A "panic" low in gold may also represent a buying opportunity in other things. Equities, bonds, and currencies may make significant turns at that time.
Oddlot
OT did the cat eat your homework?