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SPY the oversold condition should cause a rally towards 2860
Go long on stop at 279.13, a pnf buy based on 10min pnf atr200
GLD Reversed to long GLD on stop at 115.33.
Oddlot
GLD Reversed to long GLD on stop at 115.33.
Oddlot
GLD Reversed to long GLD on stop at 115.33.
Oddlot
A rally from oversold conditions is likely, but selling the rally is probably the best idea. Areas of interest (with stop) would be:
SPX 2860 (2950)
XLY 110 (120)
XLK 73 (77)
XLI 78 (81)
XLB 57 (61.5)
XLE 77.5 (79)
XLF 27.5 (28.5)
SMH 103 (111)
With cci65 severely oversold in 5 major sectors, and ma216 trending higher, the bounce will come. Be prepared for the longer term positioning.
Oddlot
That was the wrong thing to do...
That was the wrong thing to do...
That was a fast result. Bad...
SPY long 282.00 for a TRADE. Stop 280.87.
SPY long 282.00 for a TRADE. Stop 280.87.
SPY long 282.00 for a TRADE. Stop 280.87.
The pnf obj (10min pnf atr200) is now 2771.
Agree that ma200 is important. I use ma216 because of the cycle set. If violated on a sustained basis, tech analysts of all varieties will hit the parachutes.
Sorry to hear about your wife.
Oddlot
If the FLD for 86weeks (half of 3.3yrs) is the guide, and it is crossed, then the obj becomes 1900 or lower. If not crossed, then 2400-2500. It is too early for any cyclical projection.
If 2500, then pnf obj of 1800.
You are doing great! Keep it up...
Oddlot
SPX target now 2764
FLD36, for 72day cycle, was crossed at 2853, generating the target. The channel surrounding the 72day cycle is estimated at 2860 and sustained violation of the channel implies a top in the next longer cycle, which is the 216day/43week.
The estimated channel boundary for the 216day cycle is 2780, and violation would imply that the 3.3yr cycle has topped with a low due in 22week of 2019.
The term "dead cat bounce" comes to mind, and a violent bounce would be normal. Resistance at 2880. I have to play this as a downtrend from a 43week high and establish longer-term shorts on the rally. My current recommendations, in place for several weeks, are shorts in XLB, SMH, GLD, and VEU.
Oddlot
SPX target now 2764
FLD36, for 72day cycle, was crossed at 2853, generating the target. The channel surrounding the 72day cycle is estimated at 2860 and sustained violation of the channel implies a top in the next longer cycle, which is the 216day/43week.
The estimated channel boundary for the 216day cycle is 2780, and violation would imply that the 3.3yr cycle has topped with a low due in 22week of 2019.
The term "dead cat bounce" comes to mind, and a violent bounce would be normal. Resistance at 2880. I have to play this as a downtrend from a 43week high and establish longer-term shorts on the rally. My current recommendations, in place for several weeks, are shorts in XLB, SMH, GLD, and VEU.
Oddlot
SPX target now 2764
FLD36, for 72day cycle, was crossed at 2853, generating the target. The channel surrounding the 72day cycle is estimated at 2860 and sustained violation of the channel implies a top in the next longer cycle, which is the 216day/43week.
The estimated channel boundary for the 216day cycle is 2780, and violation would imply that the 3.3yr cycle has topped with a low due in 22week of 2019.
The term "dead cat bounce" comes to mind, and a violent bounce would be normal. Resistance at 2880. I have to play this as a downtrend from a 43week high and establish longer-term shorts on the rally. My current recommendations, in place for several weeks, are shorts in XLB, SMH, GLD, and VEU.
Oddlot
Sorry I lost track of your predictions. Old men like me have a hard time re what day it is.
The avg FLD(86week for 3.3yr) from now til Christmas is approx 2700 so your obj of 250 is reasonable. A break of DPX 2400 implies under 1900, a catastrophe but not unthinkable.
Oddlot
The FLD 18 (36day cycle) projects to 282.5 area, which is not too different from the 2835 SPX projection by pnf methods. Condition are oversold, but I am becoming squeamish and suspect a dead-cat bounce and no fulfillment of the 3180 projection. It is nearly time for the 43week/3.3yr high, if not an 18yr high(??), so this thing could disintegrate with little notice. I will continue the entry on the pnf buy point, but expectations are shrinking and exit may be on an 18day high.
Oddlot
The FLD 18 (36day cycle) projects to 282.5 area, which is not too different from the 2835 SPX projection by pnf methods. Condition are oversold, but I am becoming squeamish and suspect a dead-cat bounce and no fulfillment of the 3180 projection. It is nearly time for the 43week/3.3yr high, if not an 18yr high(??), so this thing could disintegrate with little notice. I will continue the entry on the pnf hy point, but expectations are shrinking and exit may be on an 18day high.
Oddlot
You have repeatedly mentioned 285. The FLD 18 (36day cycle) projects to 282.5 area, which is not too different from the 2835 SPX projection by pnf methods. Agreed re oversold condition, but I am becoming squeamish and suspect a dead-cat bounce and no fulfillment of the 3180 projection. It is nearly time for the 43week/3.3yr high, if not an 18yr high(??), so this thing could disintegrate with little notice.
Oddlot
SPX is very near the scheduled nested lows of 72/36/18/9 et al set of cycles. The cci's for all were severely oversold and a turn is the next event, assuming the trend resumes. I rec buying SPX on the next short term pnf buy signal, and I favor the 10min pnf using atr(200), with a penetration of 2.5atr for a signal. SPX is last at 2883.4 and the buy point would be 2895.13 at this time, risking 30pts from entry. The eventual upside remains 3100 or higher.
Oddlot
SPX is very near the scheduled nested lows of 72/36/18/9 et al set of cycles. The cci's for all were severely oversold and a turn is the next event, assuming the trend resumes. I rec buying SPX on the next short term pnf buy signal, and I favor the 10min pnf using atr(200), with a penetration of 2.5atr for a signal. SPX is last at 2883.4 and the buy point would be 2895.13 at this time, risking 30pts from entry. The eventual upside remains 3100 or higher.
Oddlot
SPX is very near the scheduled nested lows of 72/36/18/9 et al set of cycles. The cci's for all were severely oversold and a turn is the next event, assuming the trend resumes. I rec buying SPX on the next short term pnf buy signal, and I favor the 10min pnf using atr(200), with a penetration of 2.5atr for a signal. SPX is last at 2883.4 and the buy point would be 2895.13 at this time, risking 30pts from entry. The eventual upside remains 3100 or higher.
Oddlot
Thank you for your comments. The SPX chart makes me want to puke, but often in the past such feelings are followed by the mkt turning on a dime and going skyward. The point at which the trend is declared iffy, if not down, is close and may be reached before any upturn. I believe the mkt will turn this week, but whether it is a dead cat bounce, or new highs is yet up he seen. I have a birthday celebration to attend today, and will try to provide more details tomorrow.
Current PNF obj is 2835 SPX using the 10min PNF (200atr). The cci for 72day period (daily) has not reached the oversold level yet, so the pullback continues. A low and resumption of the upmove is expected, probably by the end of next week.
Oddlot
RCurrent PNF obj is 2835 SPX using the 10min PNF (200atr). The cci for 72day period (daily) has not reached the oversold level yet, so the pullback continues. A low and resumption of the upmove is expected, probably by the end of next week.
Oddlot
Current PNF obj is 2835 SPX using the 10min PNF (200atr). The cci for 72day period (daily) has not reached the oversold level yet, so the pullback continues. A low and resumption of the upmove is expected, probably by the end of next week.
Oddlot
Yes. Rally starting by end of next week.
My prelim projection for SPY is 284.90-284.30, and SPX to 2855-2849. One possible approach would be to focus on short-term pnf buy signal after SPY or SPX reaches these levels. I favor 10min using atr(200) for construction, and violation by 2.5 ATR for an action signal to minimize false signals.
Have fun...
Oddlot
My prelim projection for SPY is 284.90-284.30, and SPX to 2855-2849. One possible approach would be to focus on short-term pnf buy signal after SPY or SPX reaches these levels. I favor 10min using atr(200) for construction, and violation by 2.5 ATR for an action signal to minimize false signals.
Have fun...
Oddlot
My prelim projection for SPY is 284.90-284.30, and SPX to 2855-2849. One possible approach would be to focus on short-term pnf buy signal after SPY or SPX reaches these levels. I favor 10min using atr(200) for construction, and violation by 2.5 ATR for an action signal to minimize false signals.
Have fun...
Oddlot
I am not short yet, but waiting on bounce.
I can't argue about the stats of your system. What I do know is that there is a nominal 7yr cycle which is actually two 3.3yr cycles. All of which can and do vary from the nominal value.
Nominal values point to a low at week22 next year, and the actual path may be as you suggest.
The 3.3yr contains 4 of the 43week periods, and this cyclic tendency is the basis for suggesting a high in November. And again, it may play as you suggest.
I believe that the high of the 4th period if 43weeks will be followed by a nested low consisting of lows from the 43, 86, and 172week cycles. Projections for the high of the current (4th) 43week period is the 3180-3250 area.
North, the Thanksgiving comment comes from a 43week time duration from the high early this year. Some tolerance around the 43weeks is expected, so +/- 5weeks would be fine. The main point is that the high should lead to a sustained downtrend into mid 2019.
Oddlot
AMZN sell short at 1988 GTC with stop at 2117. With EV/EBITDA at 41.33 or 8x a reasonable buy point, it is grossly overpriced as well as having reached the objective.
Oddlot
AMZN sell short at 1988 GTC with stop at 2117. With EV/EBITDA at 41.33 or 8x a reasonable buy point, it is grossly overpriced as well as having reached the objective.
Oddlot
AMZN sell short at 1988 GTC with stop at 2117. With EV/EBITDA at 41.33 or 8x a reasonable buy point, it is grossly overpriced as well as having reached the objective.
Oddlot
AMZN reached major obj and is turning. Will probably short the next bounce with stops over the highs.
Oddlot
AMZN reached major obj and is turning. Will probably short the next bounce with stops over the highs.
Oddlot