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SPY the CCI for 13/26/39 week cycles have all given sell signals and it is very likely that a longer term top is in place. A low in late March/early April has been discussed previously, and a 39 week cycle should go down 10-20 weeks so this should not be viewed as a buy the dip opportunity. Rather, sell rallies and hold the shorts for a while.
Thanks, but I have learned much more from you, than you from me.
Oddlot
SPY exit plan: will tentatively look to go long with CCI20 giving BUY signal AND MA slopes continuing to be positive. This is a while in the future.
OBV systems
The original system used the range of the prior 3.5 days to set the trend, and that is now, or pending, short.
The revised system also requires violation of the last 5 day cyclic low (135.50) in order to go from neutral to short. Personally, have used the TL breaks to override the cycle inhibit because of the indication from TL breaks of tops in longer term cycles.
SPY has broken TL's with indications of tops in 13 week and 26 week cycles. CCI20 (13week) and CCI40 (26week) have given sell signals also. The short term OBV systems are flat, or with pending sell signals. And a rally into CCI/StochRSI sell territory for short term entry should be taken for LT holds.
SPY SDS shorted via SDS with SPY crossing 136.47. Daily cci20 is is sell mode, and TL was broken. Using stop at 15.73 SDS.
Oddlot
SPY SDS short equities via long SDS at 16.25, with stop 15.73. Daily CCI20 is selling, and intraday TL crossed about 136.75 SPY. Shorted as SPY hit 136.47
Oddlot
Screening tip: make list(s) on stockcharts based on fundamental criteria, then scan the list(s) with the stockchart scan engine. My aggregate value list is about 80 names, and for grins I screened for those in pnf sell mode. This gives cheap(?) stocks to monitor for buy signals or breakouts.
Fundamental screening is an art form. Read O'Shaughnessy What Works on Wall Street, also The Little Book that Still Beats Wall Street by Joel Greenblatt. Screen them like you peel an onion, removing thin layers per screen. Finviz is free and has lots of data. Afterwards look at the charts! Some look horrible, others have possibilities, some are so overbought you refuse.
Good luck with your stockpicking.
Oddlot
OME Omega Protein is fish processor and produces omega-3 rich products for humans and animals. Waste is mktd as plant fertilizer. Very cheap with p/e of 4, but appropriate would be 9x on estimated 0.84 for a value buy.
Oddlot
SNDK very cheap. 5yr rev rate +11.6% and p/e 12.5; financials are clean. ROA excellent 12.5%. Stock is in pnf downtrend. Would be a screaming BUY on breakout above 54, IMHO.
Oddlot
SPY: OBV system is long, and of course I'm short. Mkt hit resistance zone of BB(100,2) and BB(200,2), and then the Bernanke effect killed the mkt. My point to sell was SPY 136.58 but mkt did not go that low, which would have broken the MA17 trendline and signal a top.
So, afterhours SPY was sitting on my sell point and asia was likely to push lower, so I reversed. Holding SDS at 16.21.
Closed the double long gold UGL, and continue short basic materials via SMN.
Holding HUM, and CVH, and bought ESIC yesterday at 4.71. These are all LT value holdings as long as LT trend remains up.
Good trades.
Oddlot
OBV system out of the shop.
I have been disturbed by the whipsaws due to high sensitivity, so I have strengthened the trendfollowing actions in the following way. The 5minute OBV has a 5.25 day MA/ Bollinger(420,1.0) overlay. Since the +/- 1 deviation is considered random, the trend is set by penetration of the +1/-1 bollinger bands as price moves into significant deviation, and trend remains until price goes thru the opposite side of bollinger channel.
This binary system is combined with a 5day cycle using CMA to ID the cycle extremes. The trend is set by violation of the prior cyclic extreme and remains until the opposite extreme is violated. This is also a binary system.
Positions are taken when both systems agree, held when one continues but with attempts to exit on appropriate CCI signals, and then flat after exit. Initial base position is taken when both systems agree, and trading positions are added thereafter on retracements according to cci/stochrsi signals.
Marishipu re OBV system:
I have been disturbed by the whipsaws due to high sensitivity, so I have strengthened the trendfollowing actions in the following way. The 5minute OBV has a 5.25 day MA/ Bollinger(420,1.0) overlay. Since the +/- 1 deviation is considered random, the trend is set by penetration of the +1/-1 bollinger bands as price moves into significant deviation, and trend remains until price goes thru the opposite side of bollinger channel.
This binary system is combined with a 5day cycle using CMA to ID the cycle extremes. The trend is set by violation of the prior cyclic extreme and remains until the opposite extreme is violated. This is also a binary system.
Positions are taken when both systems agree, held when one continues but with attempts to exit on appropriate CCI signals, and then flat after exit. Initial base position is taken when both systems agree, and trading positions are added thereafter on retracements according to cci/stochrsi signals.
ESIC looks like a long term buy. PE of 7, ROA 12%, 5 YR sales growth 52.3% yr, eps growth almost the same. Q/Q eps +228% on sales +107%. Balance sheet good. Trend up from breakout above 4.72; buy 4.72 with stop under 3.60. Growth rate could support much higher PE.
Oddlot
SSO long 54.60 with stop 53.68; OBV hits new highs on recovery after break this am.
Education vs vocation:
I noticed while being a stockbroker that roughly half of the colleagues were ex-engineers, and that with at least one firm, the research people predominantly were associated with Cornell.
Oddlot, BSEE '70
kiy: re price channels
Strictly trendfollowing. If a cycle is 20 days long, the channel(20) will contain the cycle, and the range will not be violated unless there is a trend longer than 20 days. The trend ID remains until the opposite side of range is violated. Some use a 1/2 cycle length, in this example 10 days, as a stop and treat mkt as trading range until full range is violated again giving new trend ID.
Oddlot
SPX cycle update: see BT Timing board post 19172
SPX cycle update:
The 18 month cycle is due nominally March, but timing becomes more refined as the date approaches and targets from shorter cycles become available in a "nesting" approach. The major cycles will all bottom at the same time, and therefore the target for the "low" is somewhere in the middle of the cluster. Currently there are two of the shorter cycles available: the 26 week and the 13 week, as shown, and the target time is nominally late March.
Bollingers traditionally are 20 data points, with 20 weeks becoming 100 days. However, if one focuses on Cycle periods the 20 week becomes representative of the 26 week period, and the 40 week becomes representative of the 39 week cycle. The bollinger resistance is shown, and is 1378-1389, not very far from here.
The 17 day MA gives a trendline slope, and the violation of the trendline should signal the top has occurred in the 13 week cycle.
SPX cycle update:
The 18 month cycle is due nominally March, but timing becomes more refined as the date approaches and targets from shorter cycles become available in a "nesting" approach. The major cycles will all bottom at the same time, and therefore the target for the "low" is somewhere in the middle of the cluster. Currently there are two of the shorter cycles available: the 26 week and the 13 week, as shown, and the target time is nominally late March.
Bollingers traditionally are 20 data points, with 20 weeks becoming 100 days. However, if one focuses on Cycle periods the 20 week becomes representative of the 26 week period, and the 40 week becomes representative of the 39 week cycle. The bollinger resistance is shown, and is 1378-1389, not very far from here.
The 17 day MA gives a trendline slope, and the violation of the trendline should signal the top has occurred in the 13 week cycle.
kiy re oil cycle
Oil tends toward 18-19 months, although stretching out longer is common. The 18
Month typical points toward April-May low, which is not looking very likely. One possibility is economic drop, followed by drop in energy use, followed by oil slump.
Oddlot
Kiy re nesting of cycles.
Between my prior comments and link/diagram that you found, thete is little to add. Only that a major cyclic low, even if not a significant price decline, is usually followed by a significant price increase. And a violation of the low after a rally would be exceptionally bearish, leading to the decline into 2013/2014 which would be expected from the election cycle and that all things negative have been pushed past the election.
Good trades.
Oddlot
SDS closed long at 16.11, due to new highs on price and OBV for SPY. System is the shop for repairs.
Oddlot
Cycle low on March?
Two Hurst cycles of current relevance are the 18 month and 3yr/36month. From the low of March09, 18 months was due Sept10 while low occurred 3months early. The next low would have been scheduled for Dec10/Jan11, or if counting from where the low should have been in Sept10, the low would be March12. The 3yr/36month is due March 2012, counting from March09.
A basic building block is the 13week/65day cycle (I saw mention of 70-75 average separation between major tops, and that a top is due). That cycle is overdue IMHO for a top, but othet indicators show conditions are ripe, and my shortest term trend (noncyclical) indicator went short near the close. If this is a 13 week high, then the ideal cycle would go down for 4-6 weeks; if this is a "nested cycle" low in March12, what starts as a normal and expected correction could morph into semi-catastrophic decline.
Comments are welcome and solicited.
Oddlot
20nout: fwiw I have agreed with most of your comments and they seem to come from experience. Were you on the former CS and if so, what was your username if you don't mind?
Oddlot
SPY 13week status
The 13 week cycle is overdue, and this is the 13th week. However, the stochrsi(33) has not budged yet and is where the high should/could occur, while the low needs the stochrsi to be at the bottom. Similarly, the CCI 20 daily reflects the 13week/65day and should be much closer to the -100 level, or lower. My guess is that if this is the top, we see 3-6 weeks of decline. We also have some long term lows due late March/early April so the decline could start slow and become catastrophic.
Kiy: re nesting
comment was in general. Dont have nesting ID, but 13week is overdue. CCI daily is 20, and on 30min CCI is 254.
Best,
Oddlot
Mike_Mac re CCI...
IMHO it is one of the best. However, it is based on cycles and the parameter(s) must fit the cycle(s) of interest. Find a cycle visually, verify with DPO, and determine the number of datapoints in your preferred timeframe. For example, a 5 day cycle in a 10minute chart has 200 data points. The parameter is 30% of the total data points in the cycle.
You need to trade with the trend although your trade horizon will affect the trend ID. Wait for the pullback, and enter when CCI crosses the +/-100 reading towards zero.
At longer term extremes, the cycles will nest and the relevant CCIs will give signals sequentially in a short time.
Personally, I require separate confirmation from other methods such as trendlines, or PNF.
Good trades.
Oddlot
Mike_Mac: re OBV: IMHO 1min chart is much more informative/less deceptive than any higher timeframe so check out IWM and others with the 1min chart.
Oddlot
SPY OBV signal possible by close.
By late today, the OBV reference point will be the low hit earlier this AM. This implies a late selloff would create a short signal, and various trendlines would try to confirm depending on depth of selloff. As of now, OBV is still long, and I am again fighting my own system.
Oddlot
GOLD: closed DZZ, and bought UGL 101.14 with stop 93. Still short basic materials via long SMN.
Oddlot