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Plaintiff,
Read your stuff on CLYW so I checked out your other postings. You seem very positive on this stock. Can you point me in the right direction for some quick DD.
Thanks
Cougar6
I'm not. Volume has been relatively low which indicates not a lot of people willing to sell yet. There have been enough things changed from the "old" Calypso to warrent giving them more time.
However, they will not be able to run forever on good faith and blind hope. JMO but I think they will get another two weeks before you will see any real affect on the SP.
Two weeks since the SH meeting. Very quiet today...
No "painting" going on today. Any guesses as to why?
I agree (see my post 5061). I am not worried about it. Don't think they are in it for the short term gain.
Besides, anything that raises general awareness of the stock and its potential is a good thing. We have turned the corner, now we just need to wait it out.
I have to admit that I was hoping to pick up some more shares in the single digits in late July, but that may not happen now.
I tried to find them in the 10SQ's but couldn't. Wanted to know how many shares they had.
I checked out thier web site and it is clear they have a relationship. I doubt Clipper is going to pump and dump based on the following from thier web site:
"Steven Knoller founded Clipper Marketing, Inc. in 2002 with a well-developed background in equity trading, business consulting, marketing research, and investor relations.
Steven began his career as a consulting equity trader assisting numerous investment firms such as Wells Fargo and Piper Jaffray. He has assisted in raising millions of dollars of syndicate offering capital for his clients.
As a member of the Qualitative Researchers of America, Steven provided research consultation and focus group management for a variety of national advertising agencies including BBDO, Campbell Mithun, Hoffman York, and Clarity Coverdale Fury; even helping to bring Boca Raton-based AdSouth, Inc. public.
Steven has a Black Belt certification in Six Sigma. And was part of a consulting group who helped save a $27 million client for Dendrite International (DRTE:Nasdaq) and $10 million increase in annualized sales for Equitilink. Steven has spent over a decade in the financial sector and is widely regarded as a “Small Cap expert with integrity” due to his tough work ethic and success with more than 40 micro and small cap companies including long-standing clients Reliant Home Warranty (RHWC.OB) and Daytonabrands (DYTB.OB) - in their business development, process structure, financing, investor relations, and arranging SEC legal counsel successfully transitioning privately held corporations into the publicly traded equity markets."
Possible, but the outfit pushing this was Clipper Marketing. Not sure who they are, how many share they have, and what thier basis is in the shares. Over 1.4M shares traded today, so unless they have more than that to dump, I would think they would be out today.
Pretty common in pinks. They are so far under the radar that companies often pay firms to do an analysis of the company's prospects. Dutton Associates is another common player in this.
"Dutton Associates is one of the largest issuer-paid equity research firms in the United States and our investment performance is ranked comparable to that of the top Wall Street firms. Our analysts, primarily CFAs with over 20 years of experience at the major securities firms, are among the most experienced on Wall Street."
Notice the term "issuer-paid", meaning that the company issuing the shares is paying for the analysis. What can be worse is that they are being paid in stock, so they have an interest in making the company look good.
Does that mean the analysis is wrong?... You have to read it and figure it out for yourself. What is does do is raise awareness of the stock. After that the company stands on its own.
Hope that helps.
I agree, but I have seen good stocks drop too often. While I am not convinced that the MM Boogyman exists, on several occasions a good stock will drop for no reason about 20-30 days before good news. CHCG and PUDC are good examples.
on a seperate topic, Something good seems to be happening today.
I am not attacking the company's credibility. Not sure how you got that.
And I agree that many of the costs associated with last quarter are one-time costs. But we have not seen what it costs to run the company at full operating capacity, so I will stand by my statement until I see next quarters operating expenses.
As for the drop in price, that is due to psychology. People get nervious if they don't see returns, so they dump and go to something they feel is better. Someone tells them about a hot deal they have to jump on now and they sell thier holdings. I think you may still see SP dip, I just don't think those dips have anything to do with the inherant value of the company.
I don't know much about the change either, but if it does cause a spike, it will be temporary. There are still three months before the next earnings report. That is a long time for people to loose faith. I would not be surprised if we see .07 again before she starts to come up for good. Depends on what news comes out.
Per the letter, "Reliant has also signed an initial agreement with a major Mortgage Broker, who will guarantee a steady income stream from a $100 million per year private mortgage contract, which is being finalized through a commission agreement which will activate the contract." If they can pull 1% off of those mortgages that is enough to pay the bills. All other mortgages closed are profits. I will be watching to see if this deal gets signed and the terms. I would also like to see them drop thier overhead. $2M+ per quarter seems high to me.
Totally agree. The reason I asked the question on profit margin was to guage what we can expect and whether we will be even close to being in the black.
BiscuitEater
Thanks for taking the time to write such a detailed response. I did go back and look at your posts. I try to do that with everyone to get a feel for thier credibility. I think your first post was titled "My first and last post".
I have been to the web site and you are right, but I would rather have the company out getting deals tha making things look pretty.
Anyway, great information. Please keep posting as you seem to be one of the few here who look at the company from both sides.
Again, thanks.
Thier 5 April PR states in part:
"Steven Hamilton, Sr VP announced today, after considerable refinement, Reliant's Canadian subsidiary, Reliant Home Mortgage Canada Inc., will close the funding of its first pool of mortgages on April 16, 2007."
If they closed thier FIRST pool in April, it should not have been a surprise that there was no revenue in March. I am not saying that the launch was a success. It was clearly not a total failure. What I am saying is that everyone was on notice that they should not expected revenue from operations in 1st Quarter.
That I can do,
Thanks
Let me claify,
In the example above, it appears that the author uses 1.5% as the profit from the "revenue". I am just curious if anyone thought that there would be a premium becuase of the type of loans offered by Reliant or a discount due to the fact that some of these loans may be difficult to sell.
BiscuitEater,
I understand your market concerns. I really believe that CLYW needs a licensing agent to push thier solution in the right places.
My question is more technical. Do you believe FMC could be effectively produced with a software solution alone (i.e NewStep Networks)?
I don't like to call the company, and I am not on good terms with God, so I read these boards.
I have been watching this company since last fall and am a recent shareholder. Trying to get some informaiton. Not a mortgage/financial guru. Thought I would start here.
What is the profit margin that one should expect from these mortgages. One percent? two?
BTY, I will stick this one out to thrid quarter. I was really surprised by the drop in SP after the earnings were released. Really surprised that anyone thought there should have been earnings last quarter.
Thanks
I post the question because the information was out there. I am not attacking you, just trying to get a clarification.
To be honest I don't like to call a company to try to get information for key players. First, I would rather have them making contacts and deals rather than talking to me. Second, I don't like trying to force a CEO or CFO into providing me inside information that is going to put them in an awkward legal position. I try to stick to open source informaiton.
Again, I am not attacking you or anyone other reasonable poster on the board.
Thanks for your response.
Final4 - Did he say they are "talking" nine figure deals or did he say that they were going to pitch the deals?
Don't know how to help. I just went up to the link shown above the chat sessions on Investor Hub and it went right through. Even logged in.
I got on. Was there something you were looking for?
Thanks, That makes much more sence.
cTakagawa - I was not at the meeting so could you please elaborate on what was said regarding future deals.
Thanks, the best straight answer I have gotten.
I agree with the "its getting deep in here" statement. I would think that if you really have the deals there is no need to name names. It seems very odd to me that the CEO would make the claims. Generally certain legal liabilities become attached to those statements if not prefaced properly. The whole scenario seems very odd.
Again, thanks for taking the time to answer.
BiscuitEater,
I have never seen a board with this much bad blood. You have almost always been negative, but generally with a technical argument.
Actually, the following statement appears to be about the most positive thing you have written:
“This is no reflection on Claypso although I am still yet to be convinced they will make it long term. I am not stating pro or con at this point. Was not impressed by any thing that came out of the SHM.
All the names mentioned is a whos who of networking Giants and is purely used to try to create a perception.
None of that matters until something substantial is inked and documented by all parties.”
You say that the names mentioned were a “who’s who of networking Giants” but management also said that they were in negotiations for “nine figure deals”. Do you think that was just wishful thinking on the part of management or do you think there is a slim possibility that Calypso could pull this off?
Any other candid thoughts are appreciated.
Cougar6
Thanks for that succinct answer, care to elaborate?
MattM,
I agree with you that the past is what it is. It is generally relevant when dealing with management, since certain people have a hard time changing bad habits.
I have only been in this stock since Thursday so I have very little room to speak but it appears to me that with CLYW we have new management and a new direction, so more than a bit of “clean slate” action in play here. Not as easy to predict the future from the past.
I am always skeptical when people are talking about a five or ten bagger. Generally those wild claims are made by people on the chat sites. In this case they were made by management. Here one deal could yield a twenty bagger, so I am very skeptical, but also curious.
The problem is that, once the deal is inked and announced the big push is over in minutes. The trick is to get in ahead of that event. So it seems to come down to three questions:
1) is the technology real
2) is it so much better that it is worth the money,
3) or is management naive (or worse)
When did you visit the office?
I like CLYW, I own CLYW, but, just playing devil's advocate, if this technology is worth everything everyone says, why isn't one of the big boys simply buying the company? You could have the whole thing for what one of those nine digit licensing agreements go for.
There may be a perfectly reasonable business explination (for example, the Diac lawsuit) for this question, but I don't see it at the moment.
Anyone want to take a stab at this?
The letter is really not that positive. They only closed thier second batch of mortgages 30 May. That is not a lot of revenue.
What is the profit (or commission) they will take from the $100M? 5-7%. That is only 7M a year. Based on last quarters numbers thier overhead is about 10M.
This goes a long way towards creating a foundation, but IMO it won't yield profitability by the end of the quarter.
I have to admit that I was hoping to see a better reaction to the letter by the markets, but I think they are going to want to see more solid proof than just a promise from the company.
No Position Yet,
I have no position yet but have been watching. Everyone talks about the CEO's earnings estimates. Have they just been verbal or are they out in writing somewhere that I can find them?
Also, now that it has dropped below $4.00, what does that mean for the NASDAQ filing?
Thanks
Why the drop now?
Can anyone explain why, less than a week before the big PR push and the suspected attempt to get this stock on the NASDAQ, not to mention the good earning report due out shortly, why this stock should drop now? Obviously I am missing something. There was a filing, but I did not see anything disastrous in it?
What is the deal?
Listing on NASDAQ.
Where did you find information confirming that they have submitted for listing on the NASDAQ?
I will say that I will miss Liang. He at least had the balls to give an honest report that the battery business was not going to make its numbers.
But you are wrong about XU not having what it takes to be a CEO. A short exerpt:"From 1995 to 2002, he was a CEO of Er Zhou Yi Xiang Chemical Co., Ltd. ... Xu was CEO of Er Cheng Machinery Manufacturing from 1985 to 1990. From 1973 to 1985, he was CEO of Er Cheng Magnet Steel Manufacturing." It may have been a few years but he has done the job.
I am not sure what this means for the deal. My initial impression is that it is off, but I am sure there is a lot going on behind the scenes. It would not be the first time CHID has announced a deal only to have it fall through.