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Hey guys and gals, sorry things turned out as expected around here.
Anyway, I just had to mention something for those of you who have actually met Wilf. Maybe this is only funny to me, but hopefully someone still has a sense of humor around here.
I just got done re-watching Superman I & II, the original movies from 78' and 80'. Everytime Gene Hackman would start monologuing it kept reminding me of someone. It drove me nuts trying to figure it out until it finally hit me. It was Wilf. They look and sound fairly similar and the delivery was nearly identical. Wilf is Lex Luther. If you don't believe me go rent the movies!
Certainly there have been a number of great contributions here by many posters who have taken the time to investigate the Hemi story personally. It is probably the primary reason we are all still hanging around and have great expectations for the future.
It would be nice to have those expectation intrude into reality occasionally. Things become a little tenuous when you have to go for long periods of time without any confirmation of the plan. When there has been nothing but delays and bad weather for a year, I don't think it is unreasonable to want a little validation.
I think a lot of folks, including me, were hoping these 3 new wells were going to be that validation. In typical Hemi fashion, it is now months later with nothing yet to hear about. However, I still think these wells could be what we are waiting for. Let's hope so.
Thank you, as much as I hate being lumped in with Badge. While I do agree with some of his points I certainly disapprove of his tactics and have called him on it same as I do anyone else when I think they are full of it.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=28594004
What I find humorous though is how points are ignored while complaining about the tactics. The only response anyone seems to have it to go to Texas and ask KAA.
I find this terribly amusing. In the last few years that I have been playing pennies, that is exactly how I've seen people lose the most money. Many of the big plays that got lots of attention and build-up and then completely tanked started this way. On the surface they all looked like legitimate companies. You can't pull something off like that without having a good story on the surface to begin with. Of course, they are a legitimate company! See, they are pumping oil!!!
However, the other thing I have observed that is most consistent across all of these plays is that individuals are talking directly to the CEO and coming back to the boards with this info. That is one of the biggest red flags of all in the pinkie market, IMO. It isn't the way to get information or do your DD, it is just the opposite. The times when I've seen investors get the most burned this has been the case. The ones who've lost the most are quite often the ones talking to the CEO because they always come back as 'believers'.
I'm not saying I think this is necessarily happening with Hemi, but I do think that trying to pass off talking to the CEO as real DD is simply ludicrous. Especially when said CEO has such a difficult time following up on his press released statements as it is.
Doing your DD involves finding out all of the publicly verifiable information you can. Going to the Kansas operations and seeing things is certainly a way of getting publicly available information. People can draw their conclusions based on what they find out. However, I think some people are trying pass off their conclusions, 'deductions' and assumptions as DD itself. It doesn't work that way in my book.
Wow, now that's really a stretch.
Discussion of KAA's ability as a CEO is 100% relative to the board and I am confident the uber-mods wouldn't disagree. In fact, I think you'll find that most of the people reading this board are curious about many of KAAs decisions.
There is a quickly shrinking, albeit vocal minority who are willing to take the current DD at face value. I don't think there is hardly anyone here who feels it would be asking too much for KAA -who claims to be 'debt free and cash-flow positive'- to release the spring production numbers to show where all this cash flow is coming from.
IMO, there is one thing and one thing only that has ever moved this stock up in any kind of long term trend. That is production numbers showing we are undervalued even looking at those numbers by themselves. In almost every example that has been posted on this board of a large O&G company buying the assets of a smaller one, those assets included producing reserves, not just proven reserves.
No one wants to hear responses about how share price doesn't matter to the business plan (simply not true) and how nothing has changed in the way Hemi has been operating from when we all bought in 18-24 months ago (again not true). The reality is share price does matter, it matters to any business plan that is using equity financing as HMGP is and it matters to an increasing majority of the shareholders who read this board.
You've got a catch22 problem then. The manipulation won't stop until there is buying. There is no reason for them to stop if it keeps working for them.
If the industry or whoever won't buy because there is manipulation then nothing is every going to change.
Don't you think that if the market or more importantly the industry took anything that Hemi was doing seriously, that they would being taking positions in the stock while it was so cheap?
Based on volume and share price I would say they aren't which would mean they don't. If the industry isn't taking Hemi seriously, then wouldn't that mean that by definition whatever Hemi is doing is a joke?
Sadly, it isn't a very funny one. I am still waiting for the punchline, but I think Keith forgot it.
Wow, crazy tight! The 10,1 bollies have completely disappeared/converged. This thing is going to move sometime soon. Up or down will depend on a number of things.
I would say the reasoning is quite simple.
Take the amount that the O/S has been rumored to go up since the last offical PRed count. Subtract from that the AH trades since AUTO got back on the ASK about a month ago. Take what's left and divide that by the average size per day of the AH trade and you get how many days until they run out of shares. Personally I would think it will take longer as the AH trades have been shrinking as the volume drops off.
((OS INCREASE) - (SUM PAST AH TRADE))/(AVG AH TRADE SIZE)
I learned in high school chemistry to always check my units to make sure your equation makes sense.
((SHARES) - (SHARES))/(SHARES/DAY)
(SHARES)/(SHARES/DAYS)
(1)/(1/DAYS)
(DAYS)
Yep, its all good.
Frankly, I agree with you there. I am actually in a wait and see mode right now. I am not yet to the point that I am going to DO anything about my concerns.
Nothing aside from argue with people who say an increasing O/S and highly undervalued share price don't matter, that is. :)
And if what you were saying is true there would be no pinksheet market at all. If they could print and endless supply, anytime, anywhere, any ticker, then everything on the pinks would be trading at .0001. That simply can't be the case.
They were shorting in 2006, I know as I bought shares in 500K blocks. They quit for a few months due to buying pressure. It can happen.
Am I over simplifying it? Maybe. But will we get to FMV without more disclosure? Not on your life.
I'm only saying that I'm content to let management deal with it the way they believe is best...
Good for you. I'm not anymore, not at the rate the O/S is increasing.
So you are saying they increased the O/S 7-8% in a matter of weeks, but they didn't really have to if they didn't want to?
They diluted the value of everyone holdings by 6% or so for some unknown reason and they didn't even have to? Lovely!
Keith has stated that when restricted shares are used it's done at a 5 day running average of the share price. I can't find the reference so that is hearsay. Regardless, any shares used at anything below FMV is dilution plain and simple because less shares could have been used in those cases if we were fairly valued. The more undervalued we are, the worse the dilution is in every share that increases the O/S.
It doesn't matter what HMGP receives in return for those shares, because we could have gotten the same thing using lots less shares if we were even close to FMV.
We could easily have a O/S 45M if we had been using shares at FMV, IMO. Our investment at buyout could be 50% higher that it will be. Instead Hemi issues more shares for whatever reasons at values extremely below FMV and lowers the potential PPS at buyout. In my mind this is exactly what your MM's want. Looks to me they are winning.
Buying pressure will stop NSS. When it is obvious to a large number of people that HMGP is undervalued, you will get buying pressure. We haven't had any except in very short lived cases for over a year.
If the "Industry" had any interest in HMGP we would be seeing some of that same buying pressure. We know it has happened in the past that an other, larger O&G player has taken a position in HMGP. It probably coincided with part of the run in early 2007. Right now there is jack.
It's a very, very simple equation:
Interest in HMGP = Buying Pressure
We aren't seeing it so I have an extremely hard time believing in your geriatric oilman who has any interest in Hemi.
We have a THX failure! the 'intended audience isn't listening'. They ain't buying it. Literally.
Certainly there is information available. Apparently there is even enough (to use your word) information available to make about 4-5 people on this board supremely confident in the outcome of their investment.
Beyond that there is enough information available to make a few hundred more people confident enough to gamble on a position in the stock like me.
What there is not enough of is enough information to impress the market, stop the shorts and move us near FMV. With 29 NOIs going on near Hemi's 2 new wells I don't buy the industry secrecy bull either. KAA doesn't want to release hard information, and he won't, and until he does we won't go very far towards FMV.
I have to completely disagree. When the O/S is increasing, which it apparently is, then the share price matters. How could the company not be dependent on selling shares when the O/S is going up?!?!?!?
So tell me what do you think?
1. The O/S is not really increasing?
2. KAA has convinced who ever is receiving these shares as some kind of compensation to do so at FMV? (i.e. Well, we owe you $50K, we'd like to pay you in 25K restricted shares that should be worth $2 in a couple of years... yeah right.)
To be fair, I can think of one valid use of undervalued shares. That would be to give them to employees who are then motivated to make the company more profitable. However, if KAA really believes we are worth say $2/share then I want to know to whom he just gave away $10,000,000 worth of shares to at pennies on the dollar.
There comes a point also, when the positive attitudes and continued buying can make a difference. It might take more patience, but the fundamentals will end up trumping the rest of it. Those doing the shorting are counting on you to have that "Hmm.... I don't know...." skepticism. The news and fundamentals are what takes away that tool from them, and in turn reassures everyone this is really going on like has been reported.
What's sad is that KAA just doesn't quite get it either. People would have a little more positive attitudes and continue buying if they had a clearer picture of what they really were buying shares in. You have stated a number of times the PRs aren't even directed at shareholders but at the industry.
If comes down to the simple fact that the one thing he won't do is release any information that will help accurately value Hemi and it's holdings. The fear tactics you described being used by the shorts are only possible because of lack of information. The only way to fight FUD is with un-FUDifiable facts about holdings, assets and production.
PS. Does anyone know how to change your user alias? I'm going to change mine to unFUDifiable. What an great word.
Amen
Briefly, it was a huge geological disaster which occurred in the late 1800s and killed over 36,000 people. Somehow, I don't think that was the intent of the reference, though.
This was a very interesting article on the state of the economy. Basically, it says we are living from one hyper-valuated bubble, to the next with fortunes lost each time, as the only way to keep our economy afloat. First the tech boom, then real-estate and next...? The author suggests alternative energy. I think simply the energy sector in general is already showing signs of fitting the bill, IMO.
$8 gas may be only the beginning and stocks such as HMGP and others might be the next GOOGs. A slight difference in scale there, of course, but I think this may be the sector to be in for a while.
Definitely a good read, at least browse the graphs:
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908
Sold out of order. It's pretty standard when a trade wasn't reported in the order it was sold.
Beardeus, glad to see you are getting a second chance at this one! Long time coming, eh? Someone must like you. :)
I'm not sure what the run is going to look like this time, lots of baggage in the chart from the past year, but it certainly is going in the right direction.
GL,
-PE
Agreed. I'm not here to harsh anyone's buzz.
And I agree that it was Hemi's fundamentals that drove the last run and will drive this one. However, in this, their exchange of choice, those fundamentals weren't enough to sustain that last run alone. There were and are too many other factors.
Will this time be different? I wouldn't be here if I didn't believe it possible. As you say the fundamentals have grown stronger. When management follows through publicly with the updated and expanded reserves report they spoke of we will have more of the drive needed to reach FMV.
And what exactly were the 'actions and results of HMGP' that powered the last run?
I am not quite sure where you are coming from with that attitude, having helped shepherd this board to tremendous losses for over a year. Next to the previous moderator, who you are obviously denigrating in your response, no one else has caused more loss of money to HMGP shareholders save KAA himself.
You were taking this attitude with posters at $.50 who were making valid points and who were obviously correct in hindsight:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=17629443
You just don't get it, do you Kelsey? Do us all a favor...Review the HMGP chart action from Dec (or better yet last March)....
Then come back here and gives an assessment that has some credibility.
To be a little more precise it looks like we almost hit 2.4M in volume on a couple of those days, not 3M.
Considering the higher starting price this run, perhaps a few good days over over 1M trading will be enough to turn this around. That is of course 1M without the screwy AH inflation. On the other hand the last turn around saw about an average 10x increase in volume to get it going. I am not sure what was really the trigger, but it may have been the relative change in volume, which means we would have a ways to go.
For the past year it has been quite common for the AH trades to stop for 2-3 days every few weeks. They have stopped for longer periods as well, only to return. There have been many times in the past year where something or other has gotten folks excited and we move up. When the interest dies down everything sinks quickly to new lows. Maybe it is the programmer bias in me, but that smacks of algo trading to me and has since it started.
Is it different this time? I am withholding judgment for now. We certainly don't have anywhere near the volume we did in Dec 2006 at the beginning of the first run. That week saw volumes regularly over 1.5M and up to 3M and that was without the AH trades which falsely inflate the daily volume lately. We also have a lot more baggage/resistance in the chart to overcome.
On the positive side the pSAR flipped on the weekly chart for the first time since August. That looks very promising. As Strongus said, news trumps the chart. If management can keep enough good news flowing to keep up interest we certainly could hit the volume necessary to trigger the algo to give up and possibly start covering like last time, IMO.
Sorry, but IMO that is a load of bunk. There are very simple things any company can do to fight naked shorting, the predominant one being to increase profit and revenues. The current share price actually pretty accurately reflects Hemi's revenues. However, we've been told that increasing revenues is not Hemi's primary 'business plan'.
Secondly, any company that takes their O/S from 36M to 65M within a year darn well better be concerned with their share price. Any so called 'business plan' that supposedly does not depend on share price while simultaneously using shares to grow the business is a very poor business plan, IMO.
If they lay out that big expenditure to try and stop the naked shorting, not only is there no ROI on that money, but it is compounded by leaving less money available to acquire leases, and/or prove up reserves.
If the share price was anywhere near what some folks imply that it should be then we could have recovered from floods and done all the past years leasing with insignificant increases to the O/S. How much more leasing and going after 'oil industry priorities' could they have done with a share price over $.50.
But no, instead KAA's investment got cut by the same percentages as the rest of us. I won't even touch the question of whether or not KAA will fix that little percentage ownership problem for himself. No sense making accusations a head of time, I am willing to wait to the end game to see what he does with the remaining 35M shares.
Hemi management has EVERY reason, EVERY incentive to see their plan through in the best way possible.
Having said all that, could they really have done any differently? Maybe not, they may want the best way possible, but do they have the ability? Did they get hamstrung by circumstances right as they were really getting rolling or was the 'business plan' flawed from the beginning? I'm certainly not the best one to judge, but I am getting really sick of hearing that the share price isn't important to Hemi's business plan.
Why, when it is obvious to most of us you are deliberately misinterpreting the stated definition as it applies to the Collins well - or at least hoping that others will?
The implication is that a declaring a tight hole is a often an ineffective way to keep information secret. It doesn't imply there is anything wrong with wanting to do so. In fact, quite the opposite, it does seem to imply that the need or desire to keep information about a well is fairly common.
Most of us realize that making a wish before blowing out our birthday candles isn't going to be very effective, but it doesn't stop a lot of folks from trying.
Or perhaps spend some time simply detailing out Hemi's share structure and holdings so that the market can accurately price the stock.
"...geological information and management experience confirms that the undervalued stock market price is irrational considering the values and fundamentals of all its assets..."
Really? Prove it, Mr. Anderson. It is my opinion after watching and talking with KAA for over a year that he will do all kinds of things to help the stock price, stupid interviews, TV spots, lame PRs, emails to shareholders, and surprisingly even production numbers. However, the one thing he won't do is release any information that will help accurately value Hemi and it's holdings. IMO, his actions show a studied avoidance of anything along these lines.
Why? Who knows, but I am convinced at this point it is deliberate. He wants to have his cake and to eat it too. He wants the stock price up so he can use shares to advantageously grow the company which is fine, but he wants to do it without publicly detailing out Hemi's assets.
Is he hiding from competitors? hostile bigger fish? the shareholders? I have no clue, but one thing is for certain - the share price isn't going anywhere until he does. I take that back, it isn't going up until he does. Right now with the bollies tightening, and the lack of buying pressure, I can tell you where I think it is going. The chart looks like classic algorithmic boxing in and bottom testing. It will go on and on until there is sufficient buying interest to overcome the trend. This can only happen in one way and only one person can make it happen. Apparently for now he is choosing not to.
PRs? Disclosed holdings? Known share structure?
Who would have thought that could lead to a rising share price??!? Ridiculous!
Personally I much prefer being kept in the dark about how much Hemi holds and what my share of it is as a shareholder.
I am simply amazed at how a stock can lose 90% of its value in 4 months and still have people cheerleadering. That's on top of being down 98% from it's highs. Stocks don't recover from this kind of dilution, folks. Are ya'll still planning $1/share party for this summer now?
I hope most of you old-timers got out during the spike last fall, but sadly I doubt it.
Best of luck to everyone where ever they move on to from here. Maybe someday I'll make it to KW and someone can take me fishing.
PP, I am not. It is the middle of winter. I can't imagine a lot has happened operations-wise that is worth noting. Certainly nothing that would have a dramatic effect on the share price, especially if their weather has been like my weather.
Hopefully they will start into a drilling program this spring, I would like to hear about that eventually.
I'd heard they were shooting for Q3 2007, so at this point Q2 2008 or 2009 would surprise me at all.
I agree completely. They are working as if things will go on indefinitely, however if a buyout offer came tomorrow or even interest in a single particular checker-boarded lease they would take it. If not, the plan goes on to 2010 or beyond.
I don't think their MO or 'business plan' if you prefer includes specific time-lines, rather it is as Kelsey says... Grow the assets while protecting the assets.
Is anyone expecting these FW leases to produce revenue this winter? I don't anything has been said anywhere by Hemi stating they expect to realize anything from these soon.
In fact, I don't personally believe they are expecting to realize much financial gain from them at all. I think the primary goal is to make them more visible and a more attractive buyout target. Others have mentioned this in the past in the context of a nice side effect. I think it not just a side effect, but the whole point.
That's exactly what that PR double talk wants you to think when in reality they only have a contract with one specific hospital that is already in place.
I was just noticing the B/A was fast approaching the .0001 black hole, so this doesn't surprise me.
They have completely screwed over all of their early supporters and investors. I am glad I am not one of them. I know a few people here at least know some of the folks who bought into this at the beginning. Give them my condolences.
Buy on rumor, sell on news, right?
Yes, thanks for the chart. I occasionally wonder if you are still keeping an eye on us over here. Guess so. :)
Amen. I'm getting ready to up to double my investment, but I will wait for the climb rather trying to guess at the bottom.
Certainly if they have them and give us regular updates, then that will be better than nothing at all. :)
Don't get me wrong, I'll be happy to be off the grays where ever we go. It would be nice if it happened this year. We've been hearing the 'they are almost ready' bit for quite some time.
That's the most unfortunate thing I have heard to date. That's a guaranteed pinksheet listing. The last person I would trust with a decision like that is an MM. They are crooks and the pinksheet market is their playground, of course they would recommend a pinksheet listing. MMs have a much harder time manipulating OTCBB.
We will get a pop if they go to the pinks, but the stock won't ever approach fair market value, nothing on the pinks ever does.