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Rod, I tend to agree that the stock is in firmer hands and I certainly don't expect wholesale dumping at any given resistance point. However, there will be areas where the price stalls or retreats as we all know, and the basis for some of that phenomenon will be the unloading of shares by those who wanted to get out earlier but couldn't because of the big pullback we experienced.
As to the volume, it must be giving the manipulators fits. I have noticed greater intra-day price stability of late for HALO. Tough times for flipping at the moment. However, the volume and buying pressure are two sides of the same coin and when we reach a point when the buying pressure starts to wane the volume will likely slow down as well. That's when the shorts will get their sandbox back and we will see the usual attempts to shake the tree. (Excuse the mixed metaphors. LOL!) But again, this is not likely to occur, IMHO, until the range predicted by your fib numbers and the chart. That is to say, somewhere between $9.50-10.50.
Regards,
-Fritz
Nice find, as usual, Siri. Thanks for sharing this!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Rod, I've often heard about using fib retracement theory but I'm not at all familiar with it at this time. I'll get to it soon, though!
I agree with your general assessment that buying pressure continues unabated at least for now. We have been churning through the sevens like a hot knife through butter. The ~$8.00 resistance point will be a good tell. This resistance point should be breached by Friday but that remains to be seen. After that the next major resistance, IMHO, is between $9.00-9.50. I'm basing this on the price by volume indicator on the below weekly chart. There was a lot of cash tied up in HALO at that point and we'll see if those shareholders will sell at their break-even point after having endured this ugly pullback or hold for the big payoff. This approximately backs up your fib numbers if you assume these same folks will hold until they can sell for a little profit at around the $10 mark.
Good luck!
-Fritz
In light of recent events, here is an interesting look back at a little discussion we were having here back in April.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=28722757
Good luck!
-Fritz
Sorry, man, it's a done deal. (Unless you happen to own a controlling interest in Halfmoon Bay and wish to change your mind LOL!)
Nice to see that I am one of a grand total of 45 investors in Electronic Sensor Technology, Inc.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Pimco CEO was on CNBC at the market close and denied the rumors.
He said there was a zero % chance that Lehman would fail.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Be vewy, vewy qwiet. I'm hunting wabbits!
I hate when that happens! LOL!
Looks like I woke the shorts up from their stupor and they decided to fight back end of day. They can't hold back the tides, though, so I don't mind if they dug their hole a little deeper.
That $7.40 pps sure did look pretty this morning!
Taste of things to come.
-Fred
Percy, do you know something I don't?
-Fritz
500m valuation is ~$6.25 pps.
What's your take on why we are running?
-Fritz
Shorts are showing amazing courage in the face of this onslaught.
I'd guess they are sweating but no sign of them breaking ranks just yet. Balls of steel, I must say. I reiterate (and with more certainty) my earlier comment that biotech is in a bull mode, so it's only a matter of a day or so before they face reality and begin to cover or get trampled. They obviously can't wait too long. We might even begin to see signs of this at the end of today's session. Stay tuned!
-Fritz
In the last Jeffries presentation they clearly reserved the independent path as a viable option.
One of HALO's strengths, to quote Dr. Lim, is that their pipeline will prove to have an "efficient path to market". This translates, in my mind, to "cheaper, faster".
How it goes remains to be seen but other sources of income could potentially fund cheetah's progress.
Regards,
-Fritz
Now they have 4 options.
The 4th: becoming another Novo.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Just realized that the weekly chart with the MFI which I made reference to was not linked properly in my original post.
Here is that chart as I intended it to be displayed.
Thanks, Percy. In regards to New River, I would have thought that Mr. Kirk's holdings there would need be included in the 20% cap because he holds a beneficial interest in those shares, albeit indirectly. I'm not certain on this, though, because New River may have other ownership in addition to Mr. Kirk. In any case, the recently filed Amended form 13D does seem to list the New River holdings separately from Mr. Kirk's, thus putting him in the apparent control of 27.1% (19.1 + 8) of HALO stock!
Rod, thanks for the reminder about the ibox! I often keep it minimized for convenience sake but it is a great resource that I'd be foolish to ignore. Thanks for your hard work keeping it current!
Looks like the pps is continuing the breakout which started the latter half of May but which was temporarily interrupted by a generalized market downturn in the last half of June. This time it is moving quite nicely despite the market downdrafts.
I believe that this is very significant and may indicate a "flight to quality" phenomenon which I am sensing in the biotech arena and the market as a whole. HALO is a relatively safe haven at these price levels and I have a notion that big money is re-allocating away from commodities and looking to biotech as a shelter from an extremely unstable and unpredictable market. Thursday we managed to move 245,330 shares on a shortened trading session. According to candle theory (or rather my understanding of candle theory LOL!) Thursday's hammer is bullish in that it shows the attempt to drag the pps down was rebuffed. It appears buyers are definitely out there and demand for HALO stock is strong, IMHO. This, of course, bodes well for coming weeks and we will be pushing up against the $7.00 resistance fairly soon. The slight downturn in the MFI would have normally raised some cautionary comments here but I believe that that is simply an artifact from the shortened trading week. All in my extremely humble opinion, of course!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Siri:
Do the Baker Brothers hold a position in HALO??
-Fritz
It's impossible to extrapolate any meaningful efficacy clues at this stage. There is absolutely no stat sig in regards to that issue.
The real significance, IMHO, is that the max dosage was deemed to be totally safe at 800,000 units. This has an impact on HALO's pipeline well beyond just this this chemophase study.
Good luck and have a pleasant and safe holiday weekend!
-Fritz
Trueheart, thanks for your kind words. This is an extraordinary board and you are one of the regulars here who make it necessary and compelling reading each day.
FWIW, I agree that the 14C has no ultimate bearing on the company's prospects and we'll have the recent selling in our rear-view mirrors soon enough. Like Monty Python's dead parrot, the matter then will be of interest only to historians.
Keep up the great work!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Truheart, thanks.
Did you have a chance to have a word with Steve today?
-Fritz
(PS: no PM capability here)
The poison pill wasn't "triggered". It was simply adopted and made know via a filing on Thurs. June 19th. Fun then ensued.
-Fritz
Tom: you may have been away the last few weeks. We had a very eventful day on Friday June 20th following SEC filing of a DPDW proxy statement on Thursday after hours. A million shares were sold off on that Friday alone and the selling picked up unabated the following week. Today you are seeing the after-effects of all that action.
Read the filing thoroughly. Here is my take given in the heat of battle at that time.
Trueheart later gave a very coherent summary as well.
To date we have no real confirmation of what went on but I will stick by my assessment that the company has in fact adopted an ironclad poison pill. Here was my take last week. It would do well for you to find Truehearts long summary which came a few days later.
Good luck!
-Fritz
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Msg 61619
Thwarted takeover???
Brikk: I'm thinking that this Friday's action was more significant than a mere margin call scenario, nor was it a standard m/m shake. Over one million shares were traded and most of them at $1.00. The daily chart is quite remarkable (see below). Personally I have never seen one look like that where it plummets vertically and flattens as straight as a table top.
It appears to me that there was no coincidence between the price action and the poison pill disclosure. The most plausible explanation in my mind, after pondering it for many hours, is that there was some entity that was in the process of building up a large position in an incipient plan to launch a takeover attempt. Management apparently got wind of it and took the emergent steps which we learned about yesterday, i.e. changes in by-laws and creation of the new class of preferreds. Once this became known to the acquiring entity, they evidently lost interest in holding a large position in DPDW and sold. It was clear that they sold with a limit of $1.00 and the price quickly went to that level. It is possible that another entity, perhaps individuals or institutions close to current DPDW management, moved quickly to absorb those shares and hence the large volume. I suspect that there may be more selling next week since it is likely that the thwarted entity's position was larger than a million shares, but we'll see soon enough.
Interesting turn of events. Since you have had some contact with Mr. Chamberlain perhaps he would be amenable to clarifying this for us?
Good luck!
-Fritz
Brikk's reply:
fred, i like your theory, but i can guarantee you robert chamberlain would never comment on something so speculative, whether it be true or false.
i've seen situations like this in the past where the stock drops quickly to a given level, but never has it stabilized to such a horizontal plane, intraday. i agree it seems like no coincidence.
perhaps a large holder took their exit but arranged with another entity to buy their entire position at or above $1. just a wild guess. next week will be very interesting -- and informative, imo.
Trueheart, I too have assumed that there is a poison pill in place as evidenced by the new class of preferreds recently disclosed along with the other by-law changes. Let us know if you learn something different from your discussion with Steve.
Regards,
-Fritz
Sea-Note, thanks for keeping us updated and shining a little light into the EW corner of DPDW. Much appreciated.
Good luck!
-Fritz
From the AP article:
Additionally, Halozyme could be on the verge of entering into another partnership, the analyst said.
It is currently in a deal with Roche.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080701/halozyme_therapeutics_mover.html?.v=1
Now where do you think he got that idea?
-Fritz
Chemophase Meets Primary Endpoint
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=175436&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1170737&highlight=
-Fred
You're welcome, $tock Weazel!
Good luck!
-Fritz
CLAY is being taken private for $6 a share.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080625/nyw085.html?.v=101
-Fritz
I believe that is a photo of 10Bagger's boat. <grin>
-Fritz
Z-Nose: How does this help ESNR?
BTW, nice price moves recently so apparently someone knows something!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Short position at 7,800,200.
Almost 13% of the float.
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=halo&submit=Short+Quote%99
-Fritz
Excellent, precise and comprehensive summary, Rod. Thanks as always.
It has become very clear to me that my longstanding and substantial investment in HALO is going to be a life changing event.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Jeffries presentation went in quite well. You could sense the interest from the audience. Many times I've listened to this type of presentation (e.g.,from GNVC and NRGX) and heard no questions from the audience despite the compelling nature of their respective data. In addition, Dr. Lim mentioned that there was quite a stir at the ASCO conference regarding the chemophase results.
Of interest to me was the assertion that the combined markets of Cheetah and Phu20 + bisphosphonates was ~$6 Billion world-wide.
That sure made me sit up straight!
During question time it sounded like HALO intends to keep the Cheetah program all to itself, which is fine by me! There are plenty of other partnership opportunities with the rest of the pipeline to keep us funded, and dare I say profitable, until Cheetah comes to market.
Lastly, the regulatory hurdles in all but the HTI501 appear to be quite low and time to market will likely be smooth and swift. The importance of this can not be over emphasized given the schizoid nature of FDA the bureacracy! Dr. Lim mentioned this early on and used the characteristically understated phrase "efficient paths to market".
Chemophase results will be out this week if I heard correctly.
"Stay tuned!!" and Good luck!
-Fritz
Rod, you bet. Thanks.
I hope others will check it out as well so we can hash it out here.
-Fritz
Shorting in the face of insider buying is a rather unorthodox investment strategy, I think most would agree. Does anyone have a rough idea as to the percentage of the float that is sold short at this time?
Rod: I'll definitely check out the Jeffries presentation later this evening. Thanks for the heads up.
Good luck to all longs!
-Fritz
Another 235,400 acquired last Thursday and Friday by R. Kirk.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=175436&p=IROL-secToc&TOC=aHR0cDovL2NjYm4uMTBrd2l6YXJkLmNvbS94bWwvY29udGVudHMueG1sP2lwYWdlPTU3NDEyODcmcmVwbz10ZW5r
The more you know, the less you don't know.
Siri, It was sure nice to see that bid support on a miserable day like Friday. At this rate R. Kirk can keep some luft under our wings for a few critical months, even if the rest of the market goes to hell.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Thwarted takeover???
Brikk: I'm thinking that this Friday's action was more significant than a mere margin call scenario, nor was it a standard m/m shake. Over one million shares were traded and most of them at $1.00. The daily chart is quite remarkable (see below). Personally I have never seen one look like that where it plummets vertically and flattens as straight as a table top.
It appears to me that there was no coincidence between the price action and the poison pill disclosure. The most plausible explanation in my mind, after pondering it for many hours, is that there was some entity that was in the process of building up a large position in an incipient plan to launch a takeover attempt. Management apparently got wind of it and took the emergent steps which we learned about yesterday, i.e. changes in by-laws and creation of the new class of preferreds. Once this became known to the acquiring entity, they evidently lost interest in holding a large position in DPDW and sold. It was clear that they sold with a limit of $1.00 and the price quickly went to that level. It is possible that another entity, perhaps individuals or institutions close to current DPDW management, moved quickly to absorb those shares and hence the large volume. I suspect that there may be more selling next week since it is likely that the thwarted entity's position was larger than a million shares, but we'll see soon enough.
Interesting turn of events. Since you have had some contact with Mr. Chamberlain perhaps he would be amenable to clarifying this for us?
Good luck!
-Fritz
Your statement: Thew oil market also sold off today
is misleading. RIG, NOV, and OLL finished green today, though SLB
was down .70%.
-Fritz
That's right, JoeSmith, if you trust this management group to handle the preferreds as intended - i.e. as a poison pill - then
no worries. Today I expressed my opinion by picking up a bunch more shares at a buck a piece.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Your welcome. Buying opportunity here, folks!
-Fritz