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Insider buy: New form 4
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=175436&p=irol-sec
Director Engler purchased 10,000 shares this week and now owns a total of $65,000 shares. Smart man.
Good luck!
-Fritz
HALO Chart:We crossed the 50 day moving average confirming a bullish trend. (see below.)
Consistent with the overall market trend, we seem to have weathered the forced selling storm. Money is moving back into the stock as evidenced by the Acc/Dist line.
Moving up on moderate volume is also bullish as the ask is thin at each level. No substantial resistance points between here and $6.00. All IMHO.
Good luck!
-Fritz
fgnoms:
This is not the Biodel board. Such conversations are of topic and should be held elsewhere.
-Fritz
Thanks for the clarification rkrw.
Good luck!
-Fritz
10Bagger, while I respect your posts and your vast experience, in my opinion, your refusal to see Flotation as part of DPDW's "core business" is utterly irrational. As I posted earlier, DPDW owns it outright. All Flotation profits go right to the DPDW bottom line.
If one has 3 children is the youngest then not a part of the "core family"?
If not, how long must the poor thing wait until it reaches that coveted status?
-Fritz
Why do we have to take Flotation out of the equation?
We own it outright. Its profits are our profits.
-Fritz
I don't have a ready answer on your Humulin question, but I believe it is facing a patent expiration on the near horizon. It is an interesting point, though, and I'm sure we'll drill into it as time permits. Perhaps someone with some knowledge in this area can enlighten us.
As to your gratuitous comment on Biodel (And may I remind you that Biodel's go-it-alone Phase 3 trial ended in failure.: This is either fuzzy thinking or a subtle attempt to spread fear and uncertainty. You are implying that Biodel's fate is a predictor of Halozyme's because they attack the same target, ie.e, diabetes. I believe you are fully cognizant of the fact that the technologies are vastly different. So much for fuzzy thinking, then.
-Fritz
What I like most about T/A and chart patterns is that I can skip reading all those quarterly reports and trade news magazines.
LOL! Those Q's are so boring and give me a headache!
BTW: Those who looked at Bernie Madoff's bullish chart patterns (and, boy, were they bullish!) bought into his fund enthusiastically.
Those who lifted the skirts for a closer look stayed away.
-Fritz
If you understood that a large portion of your chart shows historical data which is patently immaterial to the technical analysis of DPDW, on what do you base your claim that this stock is going to $.05?
Can you articulate a reason that you picked that as your target?
-Fritz
Since Cheetah was unveiled, Dr. Lim has stated consistently that they intend to use other income streams to finance their independent efforts to bring it to fruition. Your opinion that they can't do it is not based on any known facts at this point in time. I grant you that it is a potentially difficult proposition, but to say they can't overcome the hurdles is mere speculation. For now I'll give Dr. Lim the edge.
-Fritz
The screenshots will continue.
And many thanks to you for that, JoeSmith!
Good luck!
-Fritz
The fact that your chart contains data that pertains to a worthless shell corporation that pre-existed DPDW speaks to the depth of your knowledge regarding Deep Down, Inc. and I'll value your opinion accordingly.
Even the most dedicated TA trader out there would agree that worthless data input results in worthless data output. Chartist or not, you can't ignore the most basic fundamentals and expect to come out ahead.
Good luck!
-Fritz
RK, I appreciate the fact that there is a more subtle interplay between a company and it's competitors than one would normally assume. However in "cheetah's" case,
A.) the competition failed and
B.) the competition's platform was based on a different technology.
When a checkmark can be placed next to both of those clauses, then the equation is positive for HALO, IMHO.
Good luck!
-Fred
Idaho, your point
the time factor is really referring to the pharmacokinetics of the the drug, not a time factor of convenience for the patient. The million dollar question is: Will there be a decrease in the long term progression of diabetic complications with a combination drug-
was going to be my exact response. This is the holy grail of diabetes research, i.e., mimicking the body's normal response to a carbohydrate load. The fact that we have not yet met that challenge is the reason why so many diabetics suffer devastating complications and shortened life spans. Dr. Lim never fails to overtly state that the "quicker response" is for the purpose of mimicking the body's natural mechanisms.
Good luck!
-Fritz
I think it is logical to assume a reasonably large premium for best in class insulin product. Based on my layman's knowledge of diabetes, any significant improvement in mimicking the body's natural insulin response must automatically go to the head of the line as the preferred therapy. Failure to do so unjustifiably subjects patients to the vast array of deleterious effects caused by the disease.
Good luck!
-Fritz
I have a callous on my DPDW buy button.
-Fritz
Good point. I was thinking that it would be wise to wait til the vol starts drying up (pun noted but ignored. LOL) before going with the puts. But I also think DRYS is over shooting the BDI and there appears to be a lot of emotional exuberance focused on DRYS itself in contrast to the overall BDI. Agree with your point about being careful with puts in an up market, though. Don't fight the tape.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Greetings, guys. Been lurking and enjoying your collective expertise.
Time for some DRYS puts??
-Fritz
shotgun, thanks for responding.
my email addy is: gophred [at] operamail.com
-Fritz
Chart of the day
Looking back 4 days ago at that 1.2 million share volume, one obviously has to wonder if the SEC sees what I see.
fgnoms, your burn rate projections are unsupported by any known facts or guidance from management. Tread lightly here. This is not the Yahoo board.
-Fritz
shotguwilly, do you have a link for that?
Thanks!
-Fritz
Thanks for the clinical update on "cheetah", Rod. Halozyme continues to follow through.
Today's news from Roche is very positive on a number of fronts.
It builds stronger confidence that the Roche partnership is on solid ground and that the full potential of the deal may yet be fulfilled. The original deal licensed rHUph20 to Roche for a total of 11 (or was it 13?) targets. Roche has moved to begin use on the 4th such target and doubtless this means they are not going to stop there.
Secondly, today's news shows that the Roche partnership continues to provide a nice income stream to finance other HALO endeavors. We are now fully funded for the next 28 months at today's burn rate of $10 million/Q. If you've ever experienced the pleasures of investing in a biotech that was chronically short of cash then you know just how important this income stream is to the health of your investment in HALO. The fact is that our outstanding share count has not increased for years and dilution problems are not on the table as we go forward. This is the type of sound foundation that turns a three dollar stock into a sixty dollar stock.
Thirdly, moving one target into the clinic and selecting a fourth target shows the pharma world at large that Roche, slow behemoth that it is, is happy with it's pre-clinical results using rHUph20. This is a very important proof of concept signal to other potential partners that should prod them to see the value of a collaboration with Halozyme. Don't forget the original announcement of the Roche deal two years back. When asked by an analyst how many more compounds may beneficially be
co-formulated with rHUph20, Dr. Lim said approximately 1000. This is the idea that moved this stock to $10.00 and moved R. Kirk to start investing in Halozyme. This potential has been further affirmed by today's news.
All in my humble opinion.
Good luck!
-Fritz
There are many infamous days in the history of the human race, unfortunately. Given the opportunity, every nation has been a perpetrator as well as a victim.
-Fritz
Excellent points, jds. Thanks for your insights.
The market is poised for a strong comeback, IMHO.
It looks like forced selling by hedge funds is just about over.
We may see a Santa Claus rally in the next week or two. More importantly, with the advent of the New Year we will likely have a sustained uptrend with lower volatility as trillions of sidelined cash begins to re-enter the market.
As long as DPDW remains profitable and management continues to hew to their long term strategy of growth, I feel we will be OK.
Good luck!
-Fritz
10bagger, thanks for your thoughts which are always appreciated.
My take on valuation is focused on the more hard headed and concrete concept of earnings per share. This Q we've gone positive with $.01 eps. Earnings should remain positive going forward with debt issues behind us and the jewel of Flotec continuing to generate significant earnings.
Thus, assuming a stable eps of $.01 per Quarter, we get a minimum of $.04 eps per year.
At a conservative multiple of 10 we therefore have a company that is currently worth $.40 per share. Change the multiplier to a more traditional 15 and we're at .$60 pps.
Go to an optimistic (remember optimism?) 30 and we're at a $1.20 pps.
At any rate, you might have trouble finding shares here at your target of $.14. I believe New Years will bring stabilization and sanity back to the market, as Hedge funds will no longer be liquidating. Fundamental analysis will once again take prominence and you will see DPDW's price reflect the above equations, IMHO.
Good luck!
-Fritz
The company was languishing with virtually no sales through the first half of 2008.
Some months ago the company essentially changed hands, and with a new ownership in place we have seen some improvement in sales.
If they can score some sizable contracts we will indeed see a nice move up. If we go back to the doldrums of the past then, of course, we will once again sag.
I hope the company didn't hire that email blast. Those attempts to increase pps always end badly.
This is a real company with a real product and the insiders have put their cash on the line, so I am hanging in here expecting the new blood to come through with some nice sales contracts. The Z=Nose devices should be selling themselves in this day and age.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Yes, if I recall correctly the bonuses are triggered by a minimum $7.00 pps.
As for Kirk, I believe he is already at the 20% limit of his holdings as stipulated by the company by-laws, so we won't be seeing any form 4's from him, IMHO.
That $7.00 pps could arrive overnight and just in time for Xmas.
One can hope, anyway, LOL!
Good luck!
-Fritz
They were giving AAA ratings to all those MBS's and credit default swaps. Their treatment of DPDW is consistent at least. They have standards to uphold! LOL!
-Fritz
To those doubt that we are trading at absurd pps levels, consider this: We have $1.00 per share of cash in the bank with no debt. Thus, at today's $2.84 close, the market values the rest of HALO's assets at $1.84.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Piper Jaffray presentation today.
Dr. Lim reiterates Roche news will be given before years end.
Within HALO, research on the science related to this partnership has quadrupled during 2008.
$5 million milestone from Baxter due early 2009.
Cash position good for 2 two years at current burn rate.
Insulin program ("Cheetah") may result in partnership to market fast acting insulin (humulog) while regular insulin (humulin) may be kept in-house. PII Study results available at ADA conference in June '09.
In addition, some of the fast acting insulin patents are expiring thus giving potential motivation for partners to step up. (HALO's composition of matter protection for this product expires in 2024.)
No safety/toxicity issues have been encountered.
Stay tuned!
-Fritz
On the contrary, I think someone is buying.
Anticipating good news, perhaps.
We'll see. Soon, I believe!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Unusual Volume today. Something is afoot methinks.
Good luck!
-Fritz
JDS ,got it, thanks, and I, of course, agree 100%.
BTW, glad you made it out of the hospital in good order!
Good luck!
-Fritz
JDS, can you be more specific as to why you are even more bullish than yesterday?
Thanks and Good luck!
-Fritz
Monday is December 1st. Roche news is imminent, IMHO.
Stay tuned and Good luck!
-Fritz
Rockitt, I do believe these late filings are at least partially responsible for the failure to get a declaration of effectiveness for the private placement. I feel that instead of fiddling yet again with the web site, management should focus on hiring competent legal counsel to successfully interface with the SEC. Currently it seems that they've been relying on some local good ol' boys who are conducting a trial by error approach to this and, as you point out, it's getting mighty expensive.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Idaho: Good to hear from you.
This is a previously filed shelf registration that was due to expire. (By law they expire after 3 years.) What we have here is simply a filing to keep the shelf registration alive for another 3 year term.
Of course a shelf registration is a vehicle which enables new stock to be issued when and if the company deems it advantageous to do so. There is no requirement that stock be issued, it just preserves the option to do so.
To quote investopedia:
"By using shelf registration, the firm can fulfill all registration-related procedures beforehand and go to market quickly when conditions become more favorable."
IMHO, there is no current need for HALO to issue new stock for financing company operations at this time.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Looks like it was filed 10 months late.
It's the second one we've seen in the last few days.
This may be why the private placement registration has not yet been declared effective. Sloppy housekeeping to say the least.
-Fritz
From the S-1:
EXPLANATORY NOTE
Halozyme Therapeutics Inc., a Nevada corporation, to which the registrant is a successor in accordance with Rule 414(d) promulgated under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), previously filed a Registration Statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-125731) on June 10, 2005 (the “Prior Registration Statement”). The Prior Registration Statement originally registered up to an aggregate dollar amount of $50,000,000 of securities, but the Prior Registration Statement will only be effective until December 1, 2008 pursuant to the rules of the Securities and Exchange Commission. This Registration Statement is intended to renew and replace the Prior Registration Statement and the Prior Registration Statement will be terminated upon the effectiveness of this Registration Statement. Pursuant to Rule 457(p) under the Securities Act, fees paid under the Prior Registration Statement associated with unsold securities offset the total dollar amount of the filing fee associated with this Registration Statement.