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Looks like the old adage still applies:
"Sell in May and go away." LOL!
-Fritz
The Week Ahead For The FX Market - Light Data/CB Meetings/G8 Sydney,July 5:
Data And Equities The dog days of the Northern Summer are upon the
markets with little in the way of key data and a lull before the US company
reporting season shifts into high gear later in the month. Despite the lull in
key data and equity market events, the FX market will key on a few events that
could influence sentiment and create some volatility.
The data calendar is a bit bare in the week ahead with US ISM non-
manufacturing on Monday and US Trade and Univ of Michigan consumer sentiment out
on Friday the only key data events in the US in the week ahead. The Eurozone
calendar is also pretty thin with Revised Q1 EZ GDP on Wednesday and German
inflation data on Thursday the only data snaps of note. It is a fairly busy week
in the UK with IP data out on Tuesday and UK Trades out on Thursday. The key UK
event will be the BOE decision on Thursday. In Japan, Leading Indicators will be
released on Monday while Machinery Orders and Current Account will be released
on Wednesday. The earning season unofficially kicks off on Wednesday when Alcoa
reports their earnings after-hours. Despite the lack of US data and key events
on Wall Street in the coming week, investor sentiment and Wall Street"s
performance will have a strong impact on currencies. If Wall Street continues to
slump it will support the USD and JPY against the EUR, AUD and NZD.
Central Bank Meetings The key events for the FX markets will be the RBA
meeting on Tuesday, the BOE meeting on Thursday and the G8 meeting in Italy that
begins on Wednesday and runs through Friday. The RBA is widely expected to leave
rates on hold so the statement following the likely decision to keep rates on
hold will be key. Since the last meeting, there has been some positive data
including a surprising GDP rise, strong consumer confidence numbers and solid
Retail Sales. The Aus data wasn"t all good however with unemployment rising and
the RBA is keeping a very close eye on the job sector. Many feel that the market
is being too aggressive in pricing in rate hikes in 2010 and the RBA might
emphasize in their statement that they stand ready to ease again on any sign of
deterioration in the local and/or global economic outlooks. If the RBA is dovish
enough for the local bill market to scale back future rate hike expectations, it
would weigh on AUD sentiment to some extent.
The BOE meeting on Thursday is also expected to result in a "no-change"
decision, but the market will eagerly await guidance from the BOE regarding its
QE plans. Most expect the BOE to take up the extra 25 BLN GBP allocated to them,
which would bring up their Asset Purchase Programme to 150 BLN GBP. There were
rumours on Thursday and Friday that they might increase by 50 BLN GBP to 175
BLN. The GBP sold off on this speculation and would likely do so again if it
turned out to be the case. If the BOE increased by 25 BLN as expected, the GBP
could make some gains on short covering.
G8 Reports last week that China was requesting that the role of the US dollar
as sole reserve currency be discussed at the G8 meeting sent the USD lower with
the EUR/USD pushing up to 1.4200. The report also suggested that China wanted
the communique to address the idea of coming up with an alternative "supra-
global" currency. Reuters reported on the weekend that according to a G8 source,
the role of the USD as the world"s reserve currency is unlikely to be included
in the communique and most of the G8 had little interest in discussing the
subject. Some analysts feel that a few of the G8 participants may go out of
their way to make statements supporting the USD as the reserve currency to
compensate for those questioning it. The list of countries nervous about their
USD holdings continues to grow with an advisor to India"s PM saying on Friday
that India might reduce the weight of the USD in the make up of the INR basket.
--John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com
G8 Showing Little Interest In USD Reserve CCY Debate - Reuters Sydney,
July 5: A source involved in preparation for this week"s G8 meeting told Reuters
on Friday that there was little interest among G8 participants to take up
China"s call for a debate on the status of the US dollar as the sole reserve
currency. The source said on the condition of anonymity: "There is a pretty
broad consensus with the G8 that this is not the right time to experiment with
reserve currencies, however attractive it might seem."
The role of the USD as reserve currency and the ongoing diversification of
USD reserves by emerging market central banks has been a USD-negative theme in
recent months. The USD broadly fell on Wednesday after G8 sources revealed that
China asked to debate the US dollar role as reserve currency. The USD ended the
week stronger due to the rise in risk aversion prompted by poor US job numbers,
a somber outlook for the EZ economy from the ECB and weaker than expected
European data on Friday.
If concerns over the slow recovery of the global economy persist and the
USD reserve currency debate fades, the USD could extend gains in the week ahead
--John.Noonan@thomsonreuetrs.com
Thanks, Spec! Yeoman's work and much appreciated!
The thing that I find interesting about Butler's presentation was the context. Because he was talking to an audience who could see right through any smoke and mirrors, one has to give great weight to his analysis of DPDW's financial evolution and future prospects. Very inspiring!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Thanks for your trenchant comments, Uncle. Both insightful and helpful.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Uncle, nice post. I'm curious though about the basis for your statement
" I also think they've had their fill of private placements, so anything other than organic growth will be fueled by debt going forward which again underscores the importance of a strong balance sheet and quality relationships with lenders"
Would you expand your thoughts on this?
Good luck!
-Fritz
10K shares @ $.15 so I guess the answer is...maybe.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&cb=1246332228&symbol=NB^DPDW&java_vm=sun&fp=10.0.22
-Fritz
I tell you, we have to hire Billy Mays to get a shout-out for this little orphan.
Trueheart
Billy Mays is unavailable. He died yesterday. Perhaps Steve Haag can apply to replace him.
-Fritz
MOA had me scratching my head also, but your theory is as logical as any: open the pipes and let it flush out. The dermatology indications for ruPH20 are just now coming into focus and can be a real gold mine, IMHO. Quick phase testing should be the order of the day with these products since they present very little systemic issues.
Night school was 23 years ago and worked out ok. I'm nearing retirement as a gov't atty. Slinging wrenches was ok too, but the kicker there was being subject to layoffs every few years. I was a machinist for 8 years total; the majority of that time in the auto and ship building industries. Needless to say it is highly doubtful that I'd be looking at any sort of pension now had I stayed in that line of work. I enjoyed it, though. As a skilled trade it was an interesting and fulfilling way to spend one's working day.
-Fritz
Back some years ago when I was working as a machinist, I had a chronic case of contact dermatitis from the cutting oils and solvents that were impossible to avoid. It was a rather uncomfortable condition featuring large painful pimples on the arms and legs. I finally cured the condition by going to law school at night. LOL!
-Fritz
Info on nickel contact Dermatitis from the nickel industry:
==========================================================
2.1 WHAT IS ALLERGIC CONTACT DERMATITIS (ACD)?
Many chemical agents such as poison ivy, rubber accelerators, epoxy resins, certain solvents, certain perfumes and some metals (nickel, chromate, gold and mercury are examples) are able to cause allergic contact dermatitis (ACD). This condition is characterized by a broad range of skin symptoms ranging from dryness, chapping and inflammation to eczema and blisters. Discomfort is caused by skin inflammation and itching. There are usually social stigmas present due to the discolourations and eruptions of local areas of the skin that are visible to others.
Nickel ACD is not an inherited condition. It is related to intimate and prolonged skin contact (i.e., exposure) by nickel metal or nickel soluble salts. Nickel ACD was first noticed in occupational settings where soluble forms of nickel came into contact with workers' skin. Individuals working in electroplating shops, in battery manufacturing and with nickel catalysts were the most susceptible to exposure.
Non-occupational nickel dermal sensitization is also well known. It was first observed in individuals who had skin contact with clothing items having nickel-coated buckles, zippers and clasps. Increased incidence of nickel ACD occurred with increasing use of nickel-plated jewellery and, most significantly, with the increase in the practice of ear lobe piercing, which often involves inserting nickel-containing studs into the wound to prevent closure during healing. Once healed, with the stud removed, additional contact with nickel in the ear-pierced area routinely occurs by wearing earrings that have nickel-coated posts.
2.2 WHAT ARE THE CONDITIONS NECESSARY FOR INDUCING NICKEL ACD?
The development of nickel ACD requires that an individual become immunologically sensitized to nickel. This is termed the induction phase or sensitization phase and takes from 1 to 3 weeks of intimate skin contact with a form of nickel that can provide sufficient amount of soluble nickel ions to the skin primarily via sweat. The quantity of nickel ions that is sufficient to induce sensitivity varies with the individual. If the skin is already damaged, sensitization will be induced more quickly and by lower amounts of the solubilized nickel. Temperature, the presence of other allergic conditions, race, sex and age may also be determining factors on the susceptibility for and the speed of sensitization to nickel. Induction of ACD is more common if exposure is combined with skin irritants and/or moist skin.
A sensitized individual, when re-exposed to nickel ions on the skin in sufficient amounts, may have an allergic response within a matter of hours. This is termed the elicitation phase, which often occurs at a much lower concentration of nickel than required for inducing sensitization in the first place. The elicitation of nickel ACD can occur in skin remote from the site of contact with nickel.(1)
While systemic elicitation of ACD in sensitized individuals by direct skin contact is well documented, there exists some controversy(2) about the ability of nickel to elicit a systemic allergic response when taken orally, intravenously or inhaled. Only about 1-10% of dietary nickel is absorbed by the body. Average daily ingested intake of nickel is about 200 mg. A few studies have shown that nickel-sensitive individuals orally given >5000 micrograms nickel (as NiSO4) as a single dose had a dermal allergic response. While such exposures are far in excess of those encountered in normal diets, some researchers suggest that dietary control of nickel intake may help in the ongoing treatment of nickel ACD caused by other sources. Nickel at 1-3 mg by intravenous administration has shown severe ACD in sensitized patients.
A correlation between nickel ACD and asthma due to respiratory exposure to soluble nickel is not found. This is likely the result of different mechanisms: respiratory sensitization is known to be a type 1 mediated immuniological reaction, whereas the skin involves a type 4 reaction.
2.3 WHAT PORTION OF THE POPULATION MAY BE AT RISK?
Studies of the prevalence of nickel sensitivity generally show that 5-15% of women and 0.5-1% of men are nickel sensitive.(3)
Public health advocates are using these figures to project that over 10% of the world's population, that is, hundreds of millions of people, are at risk of being sensitized to nickel. This projection, however, fails to take into account the method of exposure that has likely caused the current prevalence. There is widespread unanimity among dermatologists that "the principal way in which sensitization can be induced in susceptible individuals appears to be by contact with a high concentration of sweat-soluble nickel from a localized area."(4)
Nickel-plated jewellery, nickel-releasing ear-piercing studs and nickel-plated clothing clasps are viewed as the items responsible for the current prevalence of nickel sensitivity. Body-piercing practices are increasing in North America and Europe. The significant differences in prevalence between females and males is correlated with the much higher prevalence of ear-piercing among women, particularly in European cultures, but other factors such as hormone differences may also play a role.(5)
One of the chief questions is: If the use of nickel-releasing materials in jewellery and ear-piercing studs were eliminated, what would be the resulting long-term risk of nickel ACD among the population? As such controls are now being imposed in certain countries, it will be several years before meaningful data can be collected to answer this question. However, dermatologists specializing in nickel ACD have stated that "regulations modelled after the EU [European Union] Nickel Directive will likely be successful and should be closely followed over several years to document the effectiveness of such approaches".(4)
2.4 WHAT REGULATORY CONTROLS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE?
In 1991, Denmark forbade the sale of nickel-releasing objects that contact the skin and which release >0.5 micrograms/cm2/ week as measured by a dimethylglyoxime test.(6)
Updated October 2004 [The European Union "Nickel Directive" (94/27/EC) was amended by the European Commission on 27 September 2004 and will take effect on 1 September 2005. The essential change was to change a prohibition on nickel content in post assemblies to a prohibition based on nickel release. The amended Nickel Directive prohibits the use of nickel:
1. in post assemblies used during epithelialization (ear-piercing) if the release of nickel is greater than a limit to be determined by the European Committee for Standardisation in the near future. It is expected that the release limit for post assemblies will be less than noted in b. and c. below.]
2. in products intended to come into direct and prolonged contact with the skin (e.g., earrings, necklaces, watch straps, zippers) if the release of nickel is >0.5 µg/cm2/week.
3. in coated products in (b), unless the coating is sufficient to ensure that nickel release will not exceed 0.5 µg/cm2/week for a period of two years of normal use of the product.
It should be noted that the 0.5 µg Ni/cm2/week release rate likely would not protect 100% of sensitized people from elicitation of ACD. However, clinical data indicates that the vast majority of sensitized individuals would not experience ACD at this level of nickel release and the vast majority of individuals not previously sensitized require substantially higher concentrations than 0.5 µg Ni/cm2/week to be released to the skin for sensitization to occur.(7)
2.5 WHAT ARE THE NICKEL INDUSTRY'S BELIEFS CONCERNING NICKEL ACD?
The nickel industry:
* accepts that nickel ACD can be a significant health and social problem for individuals who have become sensitized.
* accepts the opinion of experts in dermatology that induction of nickel dermal sensitivity is caused principally by prolonged and intimate contact by the skin with a sweat-soluble form of nickel.
* accepts the opinion of experts that the use of nickel in ear-piercing studs, jewellery and clothing clasps and zippers is the prevailing method of inducing nickel ACD. We support regulations such as the EU Directive to restrict the contact that nickel-releasing jewellery has with skin.
* supports the use of protective equipment and training for workers routinely handling nickel substances in industrial environments.
* concurs with the Consensus Document from the 1997 Nickel Dermatitis Workshop that "transient, short-term contact with nickel-containing articles such as coinage, keys, handles, tools and other equipment does not appear to be a factor in the induction of an allergic contact dermatitis within the general population. If the contact is of short duration and infrequent, the risk of sensitization is negligible, and the risk of the elicitation of dermatitis is limited."(4)
* concurs with the Workshop Consensus Document, which pointed out that in situations where a nickel product in dermal contact is expected to release in sweat > 0.5 µg Ni/cm2/week, "nickel producers or manufacturers should inform customers of this potential and work with them to manage or remove the risk to nickel-sensitive individuals."(4)
* believes that adoption of regulations such as the Nickel Directive in the EU will result in a reduction in the prevalence of nickel ACD to an acceptable level.
* is not aware of large numbers of cases of nickel ACD having been associated with nickel in coinage despite the more than a century of use in billions of coins handled by billions of people. In particular, we find no epidemiological report of adverse effects in the Canadian population from having pure nickel 5, 10 and 25 cent coins in circulation for decades. Nor are we aware of any adverse dermatological effects in the U.S. population from having a 25% Ni-Cu clad 25 cent coin.
* believes that the provocation studies carried out in Sweden (by C. Lidén), where coins or tools are kept in intensive contact with the skin of sensitized individuals and which elicit an allergic response, are not relevant to coinage or tool use by the general population. In such cases where sensitized individuals are required, because of employment, to handle coinage virtually continuously throughout a working day, we believe that protective equipment (gloves) would be as much a benefit for hygienic purposes as for preventing nickel ACD elicitation. For the great majority of the general population, transient skin contact with nickel- containing coins or tools is unlikely to result in a dose sufficient to cause ACD.
2.6 WHAT SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION IS NEEDED?
2.6.1 PRESENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE
* It is difficult to use animals to study nickel ACD because animals display different immune responses than do humans. For ethical reasons, it is difficult to expose human subjects to a substance that may compromise their health. Scientists therefore have a dilemma. They would like to understand the mechanisms involved in human nickel ACD, but they are not confident that the animals available for experimentation are good surrogates.
* The current thinking is that Ni by itself is not antigenic, but rather that nickel complexes involving histidines or proteins are bound to Langerhans' cells. These cells, located in the basal layer of the epidermis, actively participate in cutaneous immune regulation and surveillance and are responsible for antigen processing and presenting the antigen to T-lymphocyte cells. The bound Langerhans' cells migrate to regional lymph nodes where further processing of the antigen occurs and ultimately a population of altered nickel-specific T-lymphocytes are created and recirculated where they may enter peripheral tissue (including the skin). At this point the individual is "sensitized".
* In the sensitized individual, when antigen-specific T-lymphocytes encounter the antigen, they release lymphokines, which are proteins that cause a wide variety of actions on other cells including stimulation of macrophages and natural killer cells and other responses. This results in tissue inflammation and other allergic responses in an attempt to rid the body of the foreign entity. This integrated response is what causes the allergic dermatitis.
* The condition of the skin is very important in nickel ACD response. Intact skin with normal barriers is less susceptible (i.e., less permeable to nickel ions) to developing an ACD than skin that is broken or otherwise abnormal. Heat, humidity and increased sweat promote the likelihood and speed with which nickel ions are presented to the skin.(8)
* There is no known means of reversing immuno-activation (the sensitized condition). However, because the precise mechanism by which nickel ions and Langerhans' cells and T-lymphocytes interact is not understood, dermatologists are reluctant to conclude that such a reversal is biologically impossible. The feeling is that knowledge about the mechanism will result in awareness of how to "turn off" the immune system to nickel.
* There is evidence that immunotolerance is possible. First, it is noteworthy that the nickel-producing and nickel-using industries very rarely have workers presenting symptoms of nickel ACD. It would be expected that a group of workers routinely coming into direct skin contact with various forms of nickel metal and salts would display ACD. The fact that it is not seen may be due to a tolerance that the workers acquire over time via an alternate route of exposure (inhalation or ingestion) that causes no allergic reaction by the immune system, even when higher nickel exposures are received later. Second, literature(9) indicates that dental braces made from a high-nickel alloys (e.g. Ni-Cr with 60-80% Ni) resulted in Ni-tolerance in girls subsequently having their ears pierced compared to a high nickel sensitivity in girls who had their ears pierced, but did not wear such dental braces prior to ear-piercing. This tolerance may be caused by a mechanism involving low nickel exposure orally over time. Third, immunotolerance in animals (mice) has been shown by nickel exposure either intravenously or orally, with T-lymphocytes in Ni-tolerant mice being transferable to other mice to make them Ni-tolerant.
* Diagnosis of nickel-sensitivity is done via the patch test, which establishes contact of soluble nickel against a small portion of occluded skin. This is done under a specified procedure(10) to limit misinterpretation due to irritation rather than allergic response. An appropriate concentration of a solution of nickel sulphate is placed on a metallic or filter paper disc backed by aluminum foil (impermeable to water) and attached to the subject's upper back or upper arms by adhesive tape so that the skin area under test is completely covered. The patch is left in place for two days and then removed; the skin is graded for the severity of inflammation. There is some concern that unsensitized people can become sensitized by using this test. It is also capable of giving both false negative and false positive results. Nevertheless, it is by far the most routine diagnostic test for determining whether a person is nickel-sensitive.
* In the 1960s another test, called the lymphocyte proliferation test (LPT), or the lymphocyte transformation test (LTT), was developed. Its advantage is that it uses a blood sample from a suspected nickel-sensitized individual and is performed in-vitro, thus avoiding the risk of having nickel in contact with the skin. The LPT (or LTT) is based on the fact that nickel-sensitized individuals have T-lymphocytes primed and ready for the nickel antigen being presented. The test pretreats the blood sample so as to concentrate the T-lymphocytes and then incubates them with a concentration of Ni . In the nickel-sensitive person, nickel's presence will cause the primed T-lymphocytes to "turn-on" and elicit an immune response. They "turn-on" by doing several things, one of which is to divide rapidly (proliferate). If a radioactively labelled DNA precursor iododeoxyuridine is also present in the culture, the new T-lymphocytes will use this to synthesize new DNA for their daughter cells. Following separation of the T-lymphocytes, an increase in radioactivity above a measured control (to account for normal cell division) is indicative of high cell proliferation, which means the original T-lymphocytes reacted to the nickel present. This test is only now becoming a clinical tool and more work is required to correlate it with patch test results and to make it reliable.
2.6.2 RESEARCH NEEDED
1.
2. A critical review of nickel ACD is needed. Such a review would focus on what populations are at risk by what means of exposure.
3. Epidemiological studies are required on those European populations that have had controls on nickel release in jewellery. These surveys would be done as a function of time and age to determine the regulatory effectiveness in reducing nickel ACD incidence. Such studies can be done now in Denmark because of the regulations that were promulgated in 1991 and should follow Europe-wide in a number of years for a follow-up of the Nickel Directive.
4. Work on immunotolerance should focus on determining which nickel alloys were used in the dental braces known to result in Ni-tolerance and studying the rate of nickel ion release under conditions present in the mouth. New work should also be started on populations using dental braces containing nickel to follow the status of the immune system as a function of time. By such studies it may be possible to determine how immunotolerance occurs.
5. A better definition of "prolonged contact" is needed. It is believed that nickel sensitization occurs when a soluble form of nickel contacts the skin in a prolonged and intimate manner and nickel ions penetrate the skin. Quantitative measures of this are needed by measuring the nickel transported through the skin and by correlating such nickel concentrations and time with the onset of nickel sensitivity. Either patch tests or LTT tests can be used to determine when sensitization occurs.
6. Methods for measuring the amount of nickel residing on the skin needs to be improved. Present methods using cellophane tape to strip the nickel off the skin are crude. Improvements will help in the assessment of nickel exposures required to induce or elicit ACD response.
7. Immunotolerance to nickel should be researched. This is probably best done using a population of workers at a new industrial operation where species of nickel are present. By using air monitoring, urine monitoring and skin measurements, together with LTT blood (and cytokine analysis), it may be possible to determine what species of nickel and what route of exposure may be operating to make nickel workers tolerant.
8. Fundamental work on the ability of different Ni-containing substances to provide soluble nickel in conditions present on the skin is required to rank the risk of ACD occurring for the substances. Of particular importance is determining how various stainless steels behave.
9. Improved knowledge about the mechanism of nickel ACD is needed. With such knowledge it may be possible to clearly understand immunosuppression and immunotolerance to nickel and to create treatments so that nickel sensitization never occurs or is reversible in people already sensitized.
3. References
1. Occupational Medicine, 3rd Edition, ed. by C. Zenz, Mosky: Toronto, p.99 (1994)
2. Menne, T., Veien, N., Sjolin, K-E and Maibach, H.I., Amer. J. of Contact Dermatitis, 5 (1), pp. 1-12 (1994)
3. Nickel and the Skin: Immunology and Toxicology, ed. by T. Menne and H.I. Maibach, CRC Press: Boca Raton, p. 118 (1989)
4. Consensus Document from the NiPERA-sponsored Nickel Dermatitis Workshop, March 17-18, 1997, Brussels
5. Kwangsukstith, C. and Maibach, H.I., "Effect of age and sex on the induction and elicitation of allergic contact dermatitis", Contact Dermatitis, 33, pp. 289-298 (1995)
6. Kanerva, L. et al., Contact Dermatitis, 31, pp. 299-303 (1994)
7. Gawkrodger, D.J., "Nickel dermatitis: how much nickel is safe?", Contact Dermatitis, 35, pp. 267-271 (1996)
8. Hemingway, J.D. and Molokhia, M.M., "The dissolution of metallic nickel in artificial sweat", Contact Dermatitis, 16, pp. 99-105 (1987)
9. von Hoojstraten, I.M.W. et al., "Reduced frequency of nickel allergy upon oral nickel contact at an early age", Clin. Exp. Immunol., 85, pp. 441-45 (1991)
10. Cronin, E., Contact Dermatitis, Churchill-Livingstone: London, 12 (1980)
http://www.nickelallergy.org/index.cfm/ci_id/99/la_id/1.htm
Wow, nice call, Rod! Gap filled as predicted! Nice close today on big volume!
I continue to be impressed by the money flow and price action here. I won't reiterate my theories lest I be labeled a "conspiracy" theorist. LOL! So, 'nuf said for now. To all longs: Enjoy your weekend! (chart below)
Good luck!
-Fritz
With the offering being about 7% of the shares outstanding, there is a good chance we will get to see a form 4 in a day or so. Another peek under the tent.
Good luck!
-Fritz
7% Dilution is sparking this 17% selloff?
A bit overdone I would say.
-Fritz
No hostile takeover scenario is possible here. Management has insured against that via a poison pill setup. Secondly, money has and will continue to flow into HALO coffers through existing deals.
-Fritz
I must admit I'm baffled but, as yet, I don't feel blind-sided. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Management has not demonstrated a history of screwing shareholders so I'm willing to be patient to see what's behind this.
One shot in the dark theory that came to me as I was driving to my hockey game tonight:
Assume that HALO is engaged in a big deal of some sort, such as negotiations to sell the whole ball of wax or engage with a major player in one of our main pipeline products. Then, assume that the other party is playing a little hardball with the price, trying to squeeze HALO management with veiled threats of "take the deal now or it'll get worse later".
Now if this is what's going on, imagine HALO, with R. Kirk's hard-nosed negotiating experience, saying to the other party:
"We don't need your stinking money, we're able to raise capital on our own. Don't believe us? OK, wham, we just raised 30 million. Now whataya got?"
A shot across the bow, so to speak...
Like I said, just mere speculation, but you can't discount the buying here of late. Money flow has been nothing short of prodigious. I pondered in a post here last week that now would be a ripe time for such a deal to be contemplated. Perhaps we are getting a little glimpse under the tent?
Good luck!
-Fritz
Idaho, interesting news indeed.
Here is a link to the PR.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Halozyme-Therapeutics-bw-168159123.html?x=0&.v=1
It is labeled a "public offering" so I guess it's not reserved for option grants for company officers. On the other hand we don't need the money to keep the lights on, since that has not been an issue for a long time. The amount of shares is rather small, and I'd say will net the company about $30 million after underwriting expenses (to Jeffries! LOL).
What could be going on? It is notable that the price action of late has been quite remarkable. Someone has been buying with relentless determination. Even today, as you mentioned, the close was strong while the overall market was flopping.
So what do we need $30 million for? Hmmmmm..........
Good luck!
-Fritz
Judging from that beautiful volume spike on Friday, it appears that there is at least one other person who enjoyed Dr. Lim's Jeffries presentation this week!
Good luck!
-Fritz
OK, Rod, your turn! LOL! The consolidation I was looking for is accomplished. What a nice close for the week! Volume is back and so is the pps! Next week we move into the eights on the way to nine??
Good luck!
-Fritz
(chart below)
I just got through listening to the presentation and following along with the slide presentation. I must say, Dr. Lim really nailed it. This was the most succinct and clear talk I've heard from him to date. In typical understated fashion he laid out a compelling case specifically directed at investors, rather than scientists.
I strongly encourage everyone who has an interest in HALO to check this out as it is an extremely encouraging and unambiguously bullish presentation. Several of us here on the HALO board were remarking just a few days ago that HALO's value is coming more and more into focus. Dr. Lim today underlined that thesis in spades. No waffling, no shades of meaning, no qualified "ifs" and "buts". IMHO he really hit a home run today and I was really glad to witness it.
Good luck!
-Fritz
UPB, that's what I originally thought but was wrong in retrospect. My kids will tell you that that's a common occurrence. LOL! I do think that this E/U retracement has just about run it's course and continue to be short.
Good luck!
-Fritz
I thought the chart was self explanatory.
-Fitz
Very happy to see volume picking up. It's showing up right on time to carry us into breakout territory.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Stop hunting. Notice how it went right up to an obvious stop point at $1.3850 then pulled right back? Amazing how people deny that this happens. LOL!
-Fritz
jk21 you got it. Inverse H&S is a particular bottoming pattern following a sell off or down trend. If the neck line is convincingly pierced then you can usually count on a nice run.
Here is another example from another board: along with my comments from April 25th, 2009. I originally noted the Inverse H&S when the right shoulder was at $6.23 and the head was at $3.93. The stock recently hit $8.09. (Mods: Hope you don't find this post to be O/T as it, in my opinion, pertains to the existing discussion and analysis of the DPDW chart.)
----------------------------------------------------------
Nice chart. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is on the right. Left shoulder marked by $6.41 high, the right by the $6.23 high. If we breakout over $6.41 we're off to the races, IMHO. A close above $7.00 will pierce that down trend line thereby changing the whole look of that chart. Stay tuned.
-Fritz
Was a nice close and no lame paint job either! Over 100K shares hitting the ask.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&cb=1245103855&symbol=NB^DPDW
-Fritz
Penguin, agreed. All relevant indicators pointing north, IMHO.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Not a typo, but maybe a mite optimistic? LOL! But we are getting close, IMHO, taking into consideration the bullish indicators on that chart and the price action momentum in general. You've got to grant that with the market down significantly today we are showing considerable strength in the face of this downdraft. All things considered, we are in fact getting close to a breakout. AIMHO.
Good luck!
-Fritz
PS: as to my choice of $.175 -
I've discounted the spike over $.19 as an anomoly. The chart discloses a classic inverse H&S setup - very bullish! The head is at $.076 and the top of the neckline is the $.175 level. Breakout occurs if we pierce that level with convincing volume.
JK21: Hi, I don't have PM capability.
I've discounted the spike over $.19 as an anomoly. The chart discloses a classic inverse H&S setup - very bullish! The head is at $.076 and the top of the neckline is the $.175 level. Breakout occurs if we pierce that level with convincing volume. What do you think?
-Fritz
A close over $.175 this week qualifies as a technical breakout, IMHO. Getting close. Keep an eye on volume which must improve if we're going to push through.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Do you own real estate? I do. It is appraised by the tax assessor at less than half of its current market value. Market value and tax assessments are frequently unrelated, and thus your point here (i.e. that Ron gouged DPDW shareholders with this transaction) is not necessarily valid.
-Fritz
I think most here would agree that HALO is at a most interesting, I would say riveting, phase in its development as a company. It is quite evident that HALO's value is more concrete than ever in its history.
This is a point in time when R. Kirk's expertise in the strategic planning of the company might be brought to bear. Does anyone have any thoughts on the potential for a buyout here and now?
Query to anyone who would know: Was New River Pharmaceuticals - Kirk's old company before he sold it for a king's ransom - in an analogous position when the buyer pulled the trigger?
Good luck!
-Fritz
This pattern is effectively a pause in an uptrend. The price has gotten ahead of itself with a steep rise; therefore market activity takes a break before continuing the uptrend. This pause is reflected in the decreasing trading volume. Similarly, a spike in volume marks the resumption of the uptrend.
I think the last line quoted above matches where we are right now. I agree that we will experience another leg up (and many more after that! LOL!) The only question is the timing of this next move. I would not be alarmed if we sag into the lower 7's with low volume as a little profit taking takes place. I am skeptical of a breakout as soon as next week but I'll be happy to buy you a beer if you are correct! As your post indicates, the next real move will feature another notable high volume day or days. Stay tuned!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Halofan, I definitely agree that rationality does not always play a role in stock behavior. It's hard to say what this buyer knew when he went on his shopping spree these last few weeks. But I'm happy we saw this thing begin to reflect at least a portion of the valuation we all know is coming to fruition. Halozyme's true value is becoming more and more apparent as each month goes by. One look at this beautiful chart tells the whole story. (See below.)
Good luck!
-Fritz
Thanks, Spec! eom
Somehow I missed this. Is there a link?
Thanks, folks!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Epic: the inverse head and shoulder is exactly what I like about that chart. A very strong technical indicator showing a breakout is setting up. Keep an eye on money flow and volume to add gas to the fire.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Rod, I'd like to see this go to $9 in the near term but I don't necessarily agree that it will. The daily price action has been interesting for the last few days in that we have been largely green throughout the day only to watch the close turn red. I've noticed that volume is drying up at this level and I believe the real buyers have had their orders filled. What we are seeing now, IMHO, is the late comers to the party trying to play HALO as a momo play. Their presence here is another sign that we have hit a peak - for now, at least. I observed several weeks ago that we were going to see a breakout and then pause at $7.50 and I think we have accomplished that. Time to consolidate. This may be a while. I don't think Jefferies will bring much more of a push. The next leg up will require a new news development. You are the master of the clinical development calendar so I'll defer to you as to your estimation as to when that might be. Just as "research is better than bull$hit", news trumps T/A! LOL!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Kitt, in answer to your perplexity, one thing that you must realize is that there is no broad electronic market in FX. As a retailer you are trading only against your broker, be it Oanda, FXCM, or DbFx.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Kitt: just as you have surmised, stop hunting is standard procedure with all FX dealers. It's part of their bread and butter. Unfortunately no investigation will be forthcoming since there are virtually no regulations in FX world and thus no rules have been violated. I've adopted the same strategy as you have, more or less, in that my stops are either non-existent or far out of reach of stop hunters. My results have significantly improved, just as yours have.
Good luck!
-Fritz