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I believe the silence of all relevant parties (Yellen, S. Thompson) is strategic to keep the share prices down. The goal is to surprise everyone, and a trading halt on the R/R announcement would be the biggest surprise possible.
I don't think he's right about that. I just posted the Trump link because you asked what Agenda47 is.
There is also the question of which December you mean. If Trump wins the election, he won't be able to take action until January 2025.
A trading halt prior to the announcement of recap/release would fit perfectly with the FHFA's and the administration's hostility toward shareholders. I believe the prices of Fannie and Freddie commons were deliberately manipulated downward to maximize dilution - for the benefit of the government (= bigger share of the pie).
If the shares were still freely tradable at the time of the announcement, they would rise sharply - and all the years of strategic price suppression would be wiped out. That's certainly not in the "evil" government's best interest (would enrich "evil" hedge funds like Pershing).
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-ending-veteran-homelessness-in-america
"....Joe Biden puts illegal aliens before homeless Veterans and we cannot let this happen any longer. The American Veteran is one of our greats. These are great, great people. We have to take care of them.
When I am reelected, this national scandal will end. On Day One, I will sign an Executive Order to cut off Joe Biden's massive spigot of funding for shelter and transport of illegal aliens and redirect a portion of those savings, a very large portion I might add, to provide shelter and treatment for homeless American Veterans. I will make it a personal mission to totally eradicate Veterans’ homelessness in America by the end of next term...."
So that means the FHFA is paying the legal fees and court costs to defend its wrongs out of Fannie and Freddie's coffers, while the plaintiffs in the Lamberth lawsuit have to pay 20-30% of what they are owed out of their own pockets to fight for their rights?
You obviously misunderstood me. I do not support Calabria's policy of keeping the GSEs small with excessive capital requirements. However, I think what he has written in his book is eye-opening. It gives a sense of what ideas and strategies the secretive top people in the Trump administration, including Mnuchin, really had regarding recap/release.
Even if someone other than Calabria becomes FHFA director in a second Trump administration (which is very likely), it is safe to assume that what Catman wrote in his book will continue to reflect the prevailing policies and (behind closed doors) ideas. It is a look at the past, but also a look at the future.
It was last Friday. Lamberth now has several weeks to decide which pen color he will use to sign the final judgement. Procrastination is his specialty.
I think no one can reliably predict that except government insiders.
I don't even care
I highly doubt that. The recap/release news will come on a weekend and there will be no trading in the following week(s).
You are right. I should have written: "tentative offer"
I would rather say that Calabria was pushed to the wall by Mnuchin, although I won't deny that Calabria was also a talker who, like Sandra, lacked action.
Would you sell if Catman becomes the next FHFA director again?
It is very entertaining for me to see how references to undisputed facts (unjustified price difference between FMCC and FNMA) are rewarded with tons of shit 💩 emoticons.
Neurologists might suspect that there is a direct link between BS-poisoned brains and the corresponding mouse-clicking hands
I'm sticking with the scenarios presented in Calabria's book. He wrote HERA and could even become the new FHFA director if Trump wins. So I suggest it's worth listening to him. Ignore him at your own risk.
Level 2 nonsense may be relevant to day traders. However, constantly staring at (meaningless) intraday price movements will not prevent the legacy commons from losing even more value. In the event of an SPS-to-common conversion, I estimate that commons could lose another 90%, leading to equivalent prices of less than a nickel. Level 2 nonsense may only help to exit now at still favorable prices.
I just compared it to legislation in other countries.
In many countries around the world, the law is such that if you lose a case, the losing party has to pay all the costs. So I do not understand why Hume and Co. are asking for 20 to 30 per cent of the amount in dispute from the plaintiffs who have won the case. FnF and/or FHFA should pay the full amount.
Schnauze, Holger!
If Lamberth actually dared to do this ("ice over" an unanimous jury), he could provoke unwanted media attention. The NYT could publish a story about it. Then things quickly backfire.
More media attention would certainly help, but I doubt that the FnF saga can be convincingly turned into a TV drama. One problem, for example, is that there are a bewildering number of main characters, from Hank Paulson to DeMarco to Mnuchin to Calabria to Sandra Thompson to Yellen. The plot is extremely complicated and IMHO too abstract to be turned into a touching TV drama.
Another problem is that the government's lies, implicitly repeated even by Lamberth ("FnF were the cause of the 2008 banking crisis"), have become so entrenched in the public consciousness that it is almost impossible to counter them with clarification -- whether you choose traditional education or an emotional medium like TV drama.
And, of course, the government would have no interest in seeing such a TV drama become a blockbuster. No thief on the loose is interested in having his last crime filmed.
Offensive emojis 🤡 💩 👺 are jabs at the angry quivering heart 💔of iHub's one and only upstanding Knight 🫏 (of the Sad Countenance).
To me, the "king" is the one who presents the most convincing, logical, and well-documented arguments. There really is no shortage of clueless quacks here.
The offer was made to selected large shareholders, not to the public. Nobody cares what Joe Sixpack thinks with his three shares.
Anyway, the money from the NWS has already been spent and therefore cannot be held in escrow - as Carlos suggests.
Sure. But you know - better than anyone else here - that pps can change throughout the trading day.
Ostriches also only feel safe when they have their heads buried deep in the ground. On the Internet, this phenomenon is known as a filter bubble.
There is a general rule: exceptions are always allowed if they bring in money for the government.
The problem with many (counter) arguments here is that they are based on older contracts or agreements, but overlook the fact that these can be amended by new Letter Agreements between Treasury and FHFA (if both agree) to reflect the circumstances and needs of the time. So the whole thing is in flux. There is no point in being legally stuck in the 1980s.
Also, JPS cannot be converted to commons by contract. You can find it explicitly printed there. However, they can - if 2/3 of JPS holders agree to such a conversion. So anyone who searches the old contracts and finds some "proofs" there is not revealing eternal truths.
Nevertheless, the JPS holders remain contractually protected because changes to the contracts can only be enforced with a 2/3 majority. If the majority finds these changes disadvantageous, nothing will be changed.
If they do intend to act, I think they would want to surprise everyone. There could have been discussions about recap/release behind closed doors, including the search for Wall Street investors. All of a sudden recap/release is presented, like the NWS coming out of the blue.
By the way, Wall Street investors don't give a shit if legacy shareholders get screwed.
Go? Fannie was born in 1938 and is now in a wheelchair following a robbery.