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He doesn't know himself. He just thought it somehow sounded quite good and hid his own uncertainty by giving the news two likes.
Sorry, but in conservatorship they can't "just turn back on the dividends and call it good".
No. Even without receivership, the LP could be converted to commons upon recap/release (in whole or partial).
If you want to fight windmills, like your secondary ID Sancho Panza, it's a good idea to wait until the storm dies down, because the windmills will turn more slowly.
That's the theory. In the case of FnF, the storm is the conservatorship. Upon recap/release, when the storm dies down, the legacy commons (and their holders) won't spin anymore, because they will be replaced by new commons with tickers FNM (Fannie) and FMC (Freddie).
You'll be standing in the field with your lance and you won't know where to throw it. Nobody will even want to negotiate with you. If you were Japanese, it would be the time to turn the deadly weapon on yourself.
Wrong. For Fannie commons, it's $0.00000000. They get no compensation at all, so interest (PJI) is zero anyway.
It is true that we are all gambling, but the risks are different - depending on the share class.
The whole thing boils down to a bet on whether there are more shares than idiots or more idiots than shares
The "Greater Fool Theory" ends with the last of the fools ("clowns") trying to get out at a good price. If you're hoping that someone else is that clown, you may discover that it's you - no matter how loud you blow the horns with choo-choo level 2 BS.
If Bradford and I were really as stupid as you claim, why are hedge fund managers (like Ackman and Pagliara) supposedly paying for our posts, as you also claim?
There is at least progress in your own analytical skills, as you now seem to think that I am a separate ID, previously you claimed that Bradford and I were the same person.
The next step on your path to enlightenment would be to expose the separate account plan as your own crackpot 🥳 idea.
If you post on any OTC board that the common stock is going to be worthless, you're right 95% of the time. So it's no great achievement to be a pessimist here. The statistics are on your side, even if you don't know the details.
The only reason why Fannie and Freddie commons will "only" be heavily diluted (and not become completely worthless) is that the government would otherwise earn nothing at all.
But your "separate account" has to disappear before recap/release takes place - otherwise no one would subscribe to the IPO. How do you envision the elimination of the "separate account" in practice? Will there be any conversions? Like converting LP (fully or partially) to commons?
In the case of an SPS to commons conversion, commons would be heavily diluted, but not wiped out.. The goal of this action would be to increase government ownership to 99.5%.
There will be no receivership because FnF have $120 billion in cash. It is true that the Liquidation Preference (LP) has increased by the same amount (now over $300 billion). But the LP is only partially on the balance sheets (the $191 billion in SPS), and what is on the shadow balance sheets is irrelevant to day-to-day operations.
Receivership could only be considered if available cash falls below zero. That would require thousands of loans in the MBS to go bad. But since FnF have been constantly selling unperforming loans to Wall Street, the MBS are relatively crisis-proof. So the probability of bankruptcy is close to zero.
NavyCommander is wrong in his assertion that the JPS would be paid in the event of a receivership and the commons would become worthless - and that therefore JPS holders would favor receivership. Fact is: In the event of a receivership, both the JPS and the commons would become worthless.
The LP is a partially off-balance sheet accounting item for which it is unclear what purpose it serves. Upon recap/release the government could write it off in whole or in part, and probably convert the rest to commons. The extent to which the LP becomes a financial burden is therefore a political decision. I hardly believe that the government would let FnF go bankrupt because of it.
OMG Sandra mnuchin'...?
There will only be one release to celebrate (later: remember), and the date is still in the future.
Look at the MA(200) in the chart I posted, + high volume + bullish RSI
LOL.
800 FNMFM bought at 3.10
300 FNMFM sold at 2.11
Spread: 2.50 / 4.45 (100 x 100)
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FNMFM/quote#trade-data
11/22/2023 13:31:37
2.11
-0.99 300
11/07/2023 14:28:19
3.10
0.00 100
11/07/2023 14:28:08
3.10
0.00 100
11/07/2023 14:27:51
3.10
0.00 100
11/07/2023 14:27:33
3.10
0.00 100
11/07/2023 14:27:03
3.10
0.00 100
11/07/2023 14:25:01
3.10
0.00 100
11/07/2023 14:24:10
3.10
0.00 100
11/07/2023 14:23:43
3.10
0.00 100
to da moon 🚀🌜️🔭: FMCKM +0.1900 +11.6564%
fwiw
FNMAT bullish reversal
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=FNMAT&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1700685312015
FNMAS bullish on high volume
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=FNMAS&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1700684720996
If that's true, why have Fannie and Freddie already factored the Lamberth lawsuit payments into their balance sheets?
If Lamberth had that $50,000 a day deducted from his salary, it would speed up his final judgment considerably.
Definitely stinking up the joint.
No. Dec 7 Sandra sighs "release". It is a deep sigh because the future is uncertain and there is still far too much safety and soundness missing.
2 + 2 = 22. So if the warrants are cancelled, fair value of commons is $110. Simple math. 🤪
And? Alrighty lightened up?
Gravity is merciless.
If you own a stock that could plunge to less than a nickel at any moment, it makes sense to trade and take advantage of any short-term irrational exuberance via pump and dump.
However, if you hold stocks that will eventually rise to par value ($25), you could care less which way the price goes.
You'd be better off learning the basics of value investing.