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I agree. Looking for a move to $6.50-7 range on positive data.
Murocman
I'm thinking about it. I have a small gain now. Depends on how it trades going forward. I think chances are high the data will be good. Not so sure how the stock will react.
Murocman
I doubt it will go that low. Phase II topline results for two trials due anytime now.
Murocman
They did not have a specific price listed and stated they would sell until the shares were exhausted or they decided to terminate....sounds more ATMish to me.
Murocman
I looked through the prospectus quickly and I think it said they would raise $11.5M if the offering was fully subscribed. That would equate to a price of $0.28 per share FWIW.
Murocman
The Bull case is to raise money before strong results that will create demand for shares to soak up the dilution and still raise the floor price. The Bear case is do it now in case results are bad and shares become much cheaper.
I'm long and therefore a bull. This is not atypical for a biotech company as they need to prepare for success and be able to fund future trials and continue to advance their pipeline.
My two cents,
Murocman
Chart looks great...a very nice cup w/handle with decreasing volume in the handle. A positive earnings surprise (stronger than expected LymphoSeek sales or very string forecasts) would be a catalyst that should provide some very nice upside into the $4-5 range IMO.
GLTA,
Murocman
Ignorance and impatience is the path to riches for those that do their homework and buy when others sell!
Best of luck. This is a good place to be.
Murocman
Need a PR or this will fall back.
GLTA,
Murocman
www.worldmelananoma2013.com
My mistake...thought I'd seen it from 4-5 in the program. Just looked again and it is 3-4 CEST.
Murocman
On the agenda at the conference website, 18 July. Easy to find via Google.
Murocman
Presentation is 4-5 CEST, so starts at 10 AM EST.
Murocman
Presentation is 1000-1100 EST so should be an immediate catalyst.
GLTA,
Murocman
Trial not to begin enrolling until Fall 2013 according to a poster on Yahoo, so I went and checked the Investor presentation that was update 18 June, and it looks like they are right. Slides 21 and 29 both refer to trials getting underway in the Fall. Looks like the only short-term catalyst could be uplisting, but am not holding my breath.
The delay combined with the market momentum might provide an opportunity for a lower entry/chance to add shares IMO.
GLTA,
Murocman
Only what the CEO has said, and he has historically been over optimistic with his timelines. Therein lies the risk. If we get to 4 July'ish and no news of uplisting or trial start, the stock may very well get punished and would provide a great entry point.
Murocman
Per last CC, CEO expects up list in next 30-60 days, but added he thought it would be soon.
There are also several SA articles that highlight the same thing.
If you bother to do a little DD or even read some previous posts you could answer your own question.
GLTU,
Murocman
And could be the catalyst for the aforementioned buyout or partnership!
GLTA,
Murocman
Thanks. While the deal with Amgen is promising, I think it will take awhile to generate meaningful revenues. Uptake wii depend largely on cost of test and reimbursement by insurance.
As far as the chart, I'm not seeing what you are. Volume is pitifully low and the stock is illiquid. Until volume hits the 100s of thousands of shares per day, indicating institutional interest, I don't see a reason to expect a lasting price spike.
GLTU,
Murocman
What is new/unknown about Transgenomic's tests being used as an accurate genetic alternative for cancer identification? Just trying to hone in on what the catalyst is here? Abstracts have been out since mid May and there hasn't been any volume spike that would indicate increased interest or anticipation of new data being released. Furthermore, I can't find any indication in the company PR's or presentations that ASCO is a major data release event for them. If there is something else out there, please illuminate me.
Thanks & GLTA,
Murocman
Yes it did. Went from $3-4 range to $8-9 range. Was fortunate to make a nice profit on the move. Hoping ONCS does the same.
Murocman
It will be interesting to see if the company can land a big pharma partner (like THLD did) prior to Phase II data release. That is the potential big driver between now and mid July IMO.
GLTA
Murocman
Yes...but not presenting or exhibiting so I wouldn't expect it to be a catalyst.
GLTU,
Murocman
If no PR related to ASCO, I think we run between $.26-.29 until there is trial and/or partnership news.
Murocman
Thank you for posting.
Murocman
It would be great if they were. I have not been able to find any confirmation of that digging around the ASCO site. Any light anyone else could shed would be great.
Murocman
Does it strike anyone else as curious that Oncosec lists ASCO on their events calendar yet they aren't an exhibitor or presenting any data?
Beyond being a great networking venue to potentially garner some interest in a partnership, I'm not seeing this as any kind of catalyst-type event for the company.
Anyone have a different view?
GLTA,
Muroman
Depends on the catalyst. Unless something unexpected happens at ASCO, I think the major near-term driver would be a partnership. Depending on with whom and the terms, I think $0.50-0.75 would be a reasonable range to rally into.
GLTU,
Murocman
They are not on the exhibitor list, but their events timeline says they are attending.
Murocman
Per ASCO website...abstracts get released on 15 May at 6 PM CST. Companies cannot release details until that time unless previously approved by ASCO. This could/should be a hard catalyst, with the P21 being a wildcard near-term event as far as timing. Beyond that, I'd expect we see a run-up into ASCO at the end of May.
GLTA,
Murocman
While I agree it was not simply small retail investors that moved $1M worth of volume on Friday, I find it a bit hard to believe that an interview talking about why the company moved to CA would stoke that kind of interest.
I would think it would take something more fundamental and substantive to generate what we saw on Friday. The point being, I think there may be some news afoot far more important than a company taking root on the left coast. I have no idea what that is, but the volume is very encouraging, and this could run hard with the right kind of news.
GLTA,
Murocman
Something's afoot....almost 1M shares traded in first 30 minutes.
Murocman
Based on my DD of the efficacy and safety, I am having a very hard time seeing this as anything other than highly approvable.
Having just gotten caught in the Celsion disaster, I am very leery of holding through binary events, but this seems very solid.
What am I missing?
GLTA,
Murocman
Absolutely! If they are recommending to clients, this train probably still has a ways to go!
GLTA,
murocman
I'm not so sure unless this guy has a large institutional following. The volume today was around $8 M total which seems high to be all retail, especially given the average.
GLTA,
Murocman
Agreed. Near-term support is at $1.80 (which has been holding very well so far). I think anything below $2 will prove to be a very good entry.
GLTA,
Murocman
They could. It is certainly not unprecedented for the FDA to approve drugs early, especially if they have priority review.
That said no way of knowing and will definitely be a surprise on timing. As you said, all the better to be in now.
GLTA,
Murocman
I agree. If no word of ADCOM by 1 March, then focus will shift to possible early approval. Based on some previous anecdotal experience, I would expect that could occur up to six weeks early.
GLTA,
Murocman
Read that! If we don't hear anything about an ADCOM by the end of the month, I think it's safe to assume there won't be one. The the focus would shift to early approval (which I happen to think is a very good possibility.
Murocman