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Permas said Aug would be bad. Ya bad for them.
Todays pop was enough to satisfy the systems minimum requirements for an I/T hi. Only problem is the timing is wrong. Looks like a traders market is coming.
silver and all PMs had a nice bounce off the projected low, which the point was projected over 2 weeks ago. Yes timing does work it's all in the markers which keep hitting over 95% of the time. . Traders make money, permas get hauled away on stretchers.
Since my PMs target and exit were made in early June the long bonds and the dollar have been the easy trades for the group. Doubt if many saw this.
Been busy with a school house addition, no additional comments for public consumption per the Snp, my last post on them was a response to U in late July.
Now the dimwits in DC are concerned about gas prices, something I posted several months ago was going to be an issue. But the irony is China Joe tried to shut off part of the oil flow in the states now goes to OPEC to bail his stupid ass out. What a moron. How does this work in his green world? Dipchit.
And if you think I haven't been playing gas and oil futures all year guess again.
A year ago we finally had energy independence. Yup right down the drain with these idiots. I said they'll do anything to promote their agendas and posted you'll pay for it.
A year ago I said many would be sorry for how the elections could play out. Give it another decade or so and it'll be too late. Those wanting handouts will have to accept the strings that come with it.
So glad we worked the past decade or so insulating our community from what the hypocrites in DC might try to do to the AMERICAN worker.
Oh well we are having fun watching everyone else that said I had no clue now scramble to pickup the pieces. Most people live for today or what they can get today but are not willing to put out a little effort for tomorrow. LOL
If most people knew what was hidden in this bill they might not be too happy. Should add one has little to do with the other. Previous spooz comments still apply.
ugly gap filled and then some. Next 2 weeks will give lots of info of what's to come.
silver has an ugly gap I'd like to see filled.
Now the permas are trying to spin their call for a bearish July as a success. ROFL
Watching silver with interest,
gl
When I told my gang 5K might come in before anything serious happens they were ready to reserve me a padded cell.
Never got back to work on my long-term stuff. Trying to finish my community projects by Nov. Letting the kids trade off the markers. I've been messing around a bit with PMs and dollar swings..
But why not 10K? It's all relative depending on your time frame. In time markets tend to go up.
Yet we've had secular and cyclical bear markets that last a couple years and a couple decades. Look at Japan. The tech sector from the 2000 top took over a decade to be exceeded. The 1929 top took years to be regained. PMs has been a traders market for some time.
A few months ago I revealed we had been looking at 4500-ish and we're getting into the meat of it. So is this a key area or is 5K more important? Having done nothing with my long term stuff for months I'll speculate both are key levels. So somewhere in here we have a deeper correction then onward again would keep things alive. Usually my hunches play out and I think within a week or 2 we'll know.
When doing these projections liquidity is never figured in. This is when gold bulls who are usually perma bears on the general market get messed up as they can't see the cycles but try to make fundamentals work.
In early June I sent out an alert of a correction coming. . There were disbelievers so shortly after in PMs I said it would be minor in the big picture but the next correction would stand out.
Going into mid July I posted all assets can correct. Timing was perfect, again.
People blame moves in both directions on market manipulation and algos, how silly.. Every time you buy or sell something the market is being manipulated be it from a big player or small. When the herd gets going who's manipulating?
Those that whine about manipulation are on the wrong side. If you learn how to read the market and realize what's going on underneath all the noise, a lot of this can be done without knowing where the markers are..
Last weeks hint of a correction might be the last freebie for a while. Too many want the free hand out without contributing.
Cycles rule.
GL
Gold bulls are probably wondering what happened since early June.
I tried to tell some that it doesn't matter how much money you throw around, the cycles will hit and corrections will happen regardless of the asset.
Rather than pound my head against the wall I let my crew know what's coming and go about my business.
This theme will be repeated in the not too distant future.
GL
Since my exit of PMs in early June it's been a traders market. yup yup yup
Happy 4th.
On the surface it could appear that way. But in reality Slick Willy was playing a shell game with social security funds AKA stealing from Peter to pay Paul. But once 911 hit that game didn't work. Bushwhacker tried it even though he campaigned that he wouldn't. Frikin politicians.
While the 90s weren't terrible there was still an imbalance. The time period from 1976 to 2001 was good. No major issues to deal with from mid 1973 until 911. Add in gridlock in the early 90s and spending was curtailed to some degree.
If I recall 2015 or 16 had a surplus but I doubt that could past the litmus test.
I did jump ahead of myself with the 1830s comment. Was reading some papers my grand father left with me. In them it talks about a financial issue in 1837. Mid 1860s things improved going into the 1870s. Then a real estate bubble. In the 1920s we were again gaining after paying off WW1 and on and on. In most it explains the why and hows, which interests me.
What stood out to me about 1836 was most of that surplus was given to the states versus any tariff cut. It was argued for several years. The pay out amounts depended on the states population. Some suggestion it was paid out in quarterly installments. In some areas public schools benefited the most. In a few cases the funds for schools lasted well in the 1860s. Most of this money was from the sale of land and tariffs.
The irony is this event helped lead to a financial panic in 1837.
I continue to believe if we don't learn from our past, we'll learn nothing. Like the headless chicken farm in DC that worsens every cycle. Career politicians suck.
Think the last time we had a balanced budget was 1835 or 6.
PMs took a nice dive since my last post on them. Late Fri. my shorts were covered. Turn due soon.
No further comments are offered.
You can also go further back to the gay 90s, the first decade of the 20th century was a bit messy. Then the Fed was formed and it got worse. I'm a big history buff.
If we can't learn from history we've learned nothing. Look at Washington DC. Sometimes I think DC's a headless chicken farm.
What's the definition of insanity?
Well it sure is getting boring, must almost be time to liven things up a bit.
I'm working on the fly so bear with me. The only way I currently see a higher hi in Dec is a good mid year correction.
Per taxes I've always believed in a balanced budget. Had I run any of my businesses like the Federal Government has the past 40 years I'd be broke. What bank will look at any individual or small business and give them money on their word? 150 years ago it might have worked..
An interesting proposal was released bringing a flat tax on corporations. Everyone should shoulder the burden. But this brings in a double edged sword. Raise corporate taxes and they'll again move overseas or the cost of business will get passed down to the consumer. That brings in another issue as Americans are so GD cheap they dont care where it's made, they just want it cheap.
I had a sign on my office wall in the late 70s, Buy American the next job you save might be your own. Well that got laughed at.
WE could have a tax law that gets around the overseas issue. But either way this could make the consumer pay the tax thru higher cost of goods and in some cases those that can't afford any expenditure increase pay more or go without. Those that can least afford it will get hit the hardest.
Maybe look at how Ireland does things.
We must remember the tax laws were written and/or passed by many that are whining about the same laws.
We still have this tug of war between job growth and worker willingness and/or availability.
As per the PMs and this free money thing, which I don't like as this also makes things more expensive for some that can't afford it, is reason to be holding some type of inflation hedge. This was partially why I hammered the table on oil last year and even earlier this year. The left trying to shutoff the flow was another reason but our leaders will fly all over the place for photo ops..
I've never seen where government intervention causes things to just keep going up. Cycles will have their effect. Intervention causes these wild swings, which I briefly mentioned in Jan or early Feb. But I was looking for a PM top of some sort in early June. Maybe my post was "IT". I had a few minutes so mentioned my target was hit. But when we say "A" top or "THE" top is a matter of perspective. I'm in the "A" top camp but the overall upside from mid week is probably not great before a bigger correction comes into play.
I've been leaning slightly to the PM sector topping out after the general market does before the next good correction in both.
Regarding the general market I've not done any serious big pic work since early Feb. We got most of my projection points and we were generally bullish into late April since mid last year. Without looking at all the data I don't want to mention anything that could be wrong. These projects of mine have kept me busy.
I'll PM you a thought in a few days if I have something to add.. Gotta' run. Only here because I like to pick thru the jobs reports while they're fresh.
XAU has taken out last years hi, full filling another call. The call was for PMs in general to take a run at last years hi, not gold or silver.
Now all big pic calls have been fulfilled leaving nothing on the board. Doesn't mean much. But as I've said before with no participation I'll be making few, if any public calls in the future.
Let those of us that understand the true meaning of Memorial Day never forget why we can enjoy this long weekend.
To my fallen brothers, I'll never forget you.
Many dont get it and I'm not surprised considering the way things have been going. Harris should be ashamed of herself..
In late Nov I expected the pms, to go after the Aug hi. XAU is almost there. Silver almost there. Gold dragon' its ass like a sick puppy. Another reaction soon would not surprise me.
Many tried to tell me it could not happen due to the cycles. Well?????? My cycles said it should so I made the call.
Yesterday I had an interesting chat with a few old buddies of mine. We got talking about the expanded unemployment bennies causing supply issues.
The lack of interest in employment due to expanded benefits is something I've seen on 2 occasions with my job offers. Was looking for some construction help on a big project I have. WAS!!!! Sick of dealing with lazy people.
3 employers that I personally know have told me of this problem. My tire dealer told me of an applicant having to talk to his girl friend about a job offer since he's still getting unemployment.
The nanny state can kill more than it helps if they don't get their act together. Some feel there is a deliberate attempt to prove we need a nanny state by letting it go to hell at some point. With the lazy-ness I'm seeing out side our group little will surprise me.
Sure glad we don't rely on much from the outside. And why I keep trading is beyond me. The wife keeps telling me to quit and enjoy my retirement.
Retirement? Ain't got time for that. But now it appears those getting free money will have to at least perform a few job searches every week. This might slowly ease this supply issue.
Ya the upper end of my last projection was hit after the last jobs report.
Last fall a few of us were PMing the likely hood of 4600. Mid last year I did have 4550-ish on the table. I have a wave count that allows 5K before anything serious happens but I don't give Elliot a lot of weight.
A couple weeks ago I started a post about 4400 but took it down due to a data issue. Since I do my big picture projections off monthly data It'll wait a bit. FWIW I think we'll get in that area before the next serious move down but it could take some time to get there.
Going into Feb I mentioned the likely hood of big swings. No change to this outlook. We have a traders market again and it should last for a while.
I'll add it's wrong to focus solely on inflation. PPI index shows a different picture. Jobs are still an issue. Plus people not wanting to work due to expanded benefits is another issue. The ongoing supply line issue partially due to free money gives me a real mix to look at.. But the knee jerk reactions off these "in hind sight" reports sure are fun to trade.
March 11 said oil would regroup and go up again.
YUP YUP YUP thank our leaders.
Gosh we need a third party with balls.
Hot CPI was expected in our camp,
Had mentioned before all the free money will come to a head at some point..
Normally not nice to be bearish on the jobs report. Permas just ain't gettin' it!
Tell me the markers dont work. Almost 5% unleveraged today in the miners.
U can make double the money playing hit and run knowing how the makers sit versus buy and sweat it out.
Nice pullback from the last PMs marker. Could start to stabilize soon but the big rush is gonna' be a while IMO.
Action at that point was typical. Bulls might have some work to do before much higher prices are seen.
I can see higher numbers after some corrective actions. However, this comment is based off work from several weeks ago, thus I need to run thru some stuff before I can come out with something so bold as I did a year ago.
Bitcoin I don't trade or follow any more. But I can see a bitcoin correction bring interest back into the metals. Just a hunch.
Give me a few weeks, got a lot of spring projects going on. The kids are running the show.
Well into my main target area.
O/T
Thanks to Warp Speed
those in our area that wanted a covid vaccination now have them. Many of us older folks have had the 2 required shots with the expected s/t side effects not unlike those from the flu and shingles vacs.
L/T? TWT but we expect at least annual booster shots
Sure,
My conservative system says 4005 +/- 30. My aggressive system says 4150 +/- 100. Think I made some comment a couple months back about my upper levels being drawn down a bit from what I was seeing last year.
The revised numbers were worked up in early Jan. so I might have to give them some wiggle room. and depending on the next few weeks I might run them again. Got some interesting timing points coming up
Permas were looking for a bad Jan and Feb. All we did was trade trade trade. Again a perma attitude will get you in trouble.
Now they say 4000 was a shoe in. On this very site, last April I said 4300 was coming, some of my projections have changed a bit but,,,
Maybe I need to show them HOW I DO IT> NAW
Not as good? HM no I would not be as good as you when using charts. I like to look at it as having several systems rolled into one to give optional ways of looking at things.
The markers, which I haven't posted for some time are cycle points. Sometimes they are very reactive but at times they only offer a stalling point. I have 4 ways to find them which is why sometimes I posted a date like the 26-ish or 26-29 as the 4 programs don't always agree.. But when 3 of the 4 agree it's usually all in long or short.
I've seen people use charts in a strong trending market and keep getting stopped out. In a choppy market they have value if set correctly. But how do you know the chop is ending or a trending market is going into a chop? So for me knowing where we are in the big picture is important.
That brings in why I said the dollar was becoming a tradable issue as the big picture was turning bullish a few months back. Not mentioned here but I was heavy in consumer products the past 2 months as well due to what the foundation of the sector looked like.
When I find issues setting up that I dont have worry about chop chop chop like the current consumer products trade which I sold a bunch on Fri, the dollar, oil for the last year until a couple weeks ago, I'm all in and I could care less what the spooz, PMs or whatever are doing.
If I have time to sit by the computer part of the day, I'll put my trader shoes on.
By using upcoming markers, along with a twice a day read on some issues, price movement and an evening summary of the underlying issues gives me a lot of freedom during the day, which is when I'm working on my community projects. I can ignore the market for all but maybe 10 minutes during the trading day.
The evening review takes about an hour, which many find too tedious and the work needed is why I don't answer the "HOW DO YOU DO IT? questions. I felt offering the markers was enough but that drew flack so I stopped publishing markers in public. Kind of the one rotten apple spoiled it for everyone else theme.
Remember this system has been massaged for over 50 years with serious updates twice a year.. So it had better work.
Some should learn how to trade currencies. In late Nov. I said the dollar would become more tradable.
I can see no one wants to make money so I'll make fewer public comments about tradable events/issues.
Fed didn't kill the miner rally but the last marker sure stuck
Dont know why you'd say that. Selling in front of the Fed is usually s/t bullish. Pattern works about 85% of the time.