Retired
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Got a PM that I'll share. It asks about fed tightening, their backing off on bond purchases etc. With all this how do I maintain a bullish attitude.
First you need to study history and how raising rates is not bearish, to a point.. Then it'll be very clear.
Another is we're all time record lows for interest rates, this will at least keep things flatish for some time. Currently there are only 3 hikes baked in, yes baked in.
This big picture flattish theme is something that is starting to show in some bigger pic work. Will be several weeks before I finish. This involves a lot of work that few are willing to do nor have any idea how it's done.
But all my big pic thoughts for the past few years have played out, permas have no idea.
When the permas turn bullish get the hell out.
Todays pop was what was needed, per the time cycles and some other work of mine, for confirmation of this holding into mid Jan. Doesn't have to go a lot higher, just overall hold up. If this theme plays out the next correction will have every top caller in the world out saying I told you so.
Looking more like a 3 of 5 since we broke 80 today but the B is possible.
Permas will be walking bow legged before this is done. Every pullback brings comments like this is it. The mid Dec dip had the fools declaring the end. I should tell them how I do it, nah
whip saw into mid Jan, then,,,,,,,,,, nah just another correction is how I still see.
Thanks for the pic. Good ole Clint, The last few weeks I've been taking a mid afternoon break 2-3 times a week and watching Rawhide in my shop while shooting a couple games of pool..
I'm ignoring the headless chicken farm in DC for a while. What they do or dont do over the next few weeks is likely irrelevant unless they do something real stupid.
Just more chop is likely. Some weakness later this week would not surprise me.
If anything is done to medicare that'll be suicide. Something we've been forced to pay into all our lives and then being cut could start some serious issues for those that back it. It would have to phased in per age much as social security being phased out..
Kick parts of Obama Care to the crap pile, which is where it belongs and allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices would be a start. Allow insurance groups to work in multi states would help. But show me a politician that doesnt take drug money,,,,,,,,,,,,,
The government knows better how to regulate our lives then their own issues. But as long as THEY can practice insider trading all is well.
Brings me to a thought I heard in a nursing home. Too many with their hand out, was said by one old lady and I agree. and then said But dont cut my benefits, typical lefty comment...............
Watch mid Jan. Might be important.
Merry X-mas.
Many thought no x-mas rally this year. Many were looking at 2018 and that was possible but I said whipping into mid Dec was likely and that hit.
Taking out 4710 leaves open 4800 but gives us 2 options. This a B wave off the dec low or a 3 within a 5 with a 4 and 5 to follow. If a 3 of 5 then 5 K is still possible before a bigger correction.
Pick your poison.
Permas must be reading their charts upside down. Where is this horrible Dec? No wonder they want to know how I do it.
Xmas is like the last s/t hi in respect to another symmetry play we are running.
traders make money permas get sea sick. Did say Dec would be choppy, had to be with all the markers we have every 2-4 days
Can hear my grandfather rolling in his grave.
He'd probably say it's just another way to buy votes but in reality hurting those they claim to help. Hypocrites
Follows in line with how our current set of commies think.
In all fairness, a couple months ago the permas revised their dec outlook to 3800, still way off the mark,.
I had said the year would end bad unless we had a mid year correction, which was Sep.
I only made bearish comments twice. Early Sep and again in mid Nov. I publicly revealed a top call but never pounded the table.
Then as we ended Nov I said whipsawing was good.
Out to plow snow and enjoy life.
GL
HMMMNM maybe, TWT
Before I go I'll reveal the permas were looking for 2500 or so by mid Dec. Where they come up with these wild dreams is beyond me. But last year when i first said 4300 many looked at me like I was nuts.
When I said 5K might hit before a meaningful correction the looks got real strange.
Might do some big pic work in Jan or feb. been almost a year.
GL
Was asked about the odds of 5K. Look, I've given a lot with nothing coming back regarding contributing. I gave a top signal near the recent hi near 4750. That leaves a possible 250 points +/-. Let greed or whatever rule how you play this.
Will be scarce until next spring. Those that have played along have the markers and my detailed thoughts.
Taking out last weeks low does not change the big count. This was more a s/t idea. Only taking out the Oct low will change the bull count. My bear count is, well you don't want to know.
The guys have been doing pretty well with this. I told them to expect lots of head fakes in both directions for a while. They are using my day trade system very well, missed one exit but they're ok.
I've not in much during market hours but sure would love to get in on the fun.
Was asked if we hit 5K what type of pullback to expect. Hell if I know but it should be a dandy.
Was mentioned in PMs we might gyrate until mid month. Very possible.
count is still bullish, hmmm
whipsawing is good, preferred in fact as long as we dont break last weeks low.
After reading your PM I remembered this post. I never said one way or the other and I have done no big work since Jan.
We've been playing the s/t wiggles and the I/T swings since early Sep.
But did take a far amount off our 401Ks and other general investments in early Nov. as 5K was a big target I generated last Spring and posted it in late July. Seldom do I hold big money for the last few points as we could fall short.
But in general your outlook from early Sep has played out. Good show.
From here on confirmation might take a couple months to paint its own picture without any analysis.
See gas futures got hit 0.28 on Fri. Would have been a good short but I'm only playing the spooz, which paid well too. Curious what the pumps will do by Wed.
And like I said in Mid Oct, avoid crude and play the SnP swings to make serious money.
My real time on site calls will continue to become fewer.
Too many hang on old wall street proverbs Like,,,, Thanksgiving week is the most bullish week of the year.
Years ago the above was true for over a century aprx 70-80% of the time. But about 40 years ago there was a slow shift and about 20 years ago the shift has further worsened, which I blame it on computers. Lately betting bullish on turkey week has been almost a coin flip. I feel this trend will again change in a few years.
There's another old proverb, Thanksgiving is for the bears and X-mas is for the bulls.
To further complicate proverbs, when turkey week is bad we have a bad December like 2018 as the most recent example,
But anyway we were looking for turkey volatility and it hit. Some will blame the new Covid variant on this dip but I will continue to argue cycles rule and we still hit the s/t swings with high accuracy.
My last top spotter alert was again spot on but the key is for how long..
Cycles rule.
permas still haven't figured out PMs are a traders market as I suggested last summer.
and the dollar won, cycles rule
Targets projected in mid oct. nearly made. PMers know the bigger route.
Get involved if you want to make money,
Now with the dollar and PMs/Gold both up again today one has to ask, which will continue or either one and why. Will cycles win or fundaments.
The long dollar trade had been an ez money play for the insiders for months.
HMMM?
Happy vets day to all my brothers
If anyone thought miners etc would not pop on the CPI report, well,,,,,,
but the dollar popped too, shows that this is a signal the fed must step in.
When the leftists marxists were told no out of the world spending program would happen the market goes up. Hard to argue against it even if the markers had bottomed near that same time..
Mid Oct said to back off crude and only play the spooz, yup working great and should until the next poi
TNA has been another great symmetry trade for the insiders. Many more exist.
Great example of market symmetry as we approach our next marker and possible s/t hi.. Near equal time down and up. To date, both legs contain a near mirror image within them with a 3-4 day counter-trend wiggle.
Target numbers for this sym trade generated in Mid Oct. are close. No sell signal yet but the pattern is near complete.
In fact there are many sym trades out there. Next one might only be a s/t wiggle.
Bet most ignored the NYA. Too many focus on the spooz and gold and penny stocks
Symmetery play working fine as we approach the next marker. Will it turn or stall?
Crude over 82 still our easiest EZ money trade, it might take another breather soon.
Playing the wiggles in the spooz for the next couple months is probably where the big money will still be made if you have the markers.
Despite the wiggles, taking out last weeks hi keeps the symmetry play on track.
The permas were betting on a bearish week, ``sigh``
Market symmetry is working better than expected. Follow the markers.
Crude hits 80. Maybe china Joe should shutoff another pipeline,
Meanwhile Joey and violence advocate Harris continue to fly around the country like no issues exist. Don't planes use oil? Don't planes pollute?
Wonder what the next leg will give us.
Who told the generation that built absolutely nothing that they can tear down everything they don’t like?
Kin of fits with those that want to know how I do it but give nothing in return, so they get tid bits at most until they step up and show some effort..
Taking first profits at the buck stops here trade. PMer's that worked with me were told I'm full long the dollar in early Sep. Done right after I posted the models saying time to be aware of the general market.
Taking first load home, appropriate levels of exits remain
A couple times over the spring and summer the dollar was mentioned as an easy trade.
who needs the spooz other than for s/t trade right now.
Our oil trade did very well too, where that stops?
Lots of easy money out there.
I probably could care less about the spooz. With my schedule plus lack of interest to watch the market very often there's easier and more money to be made in other areas.
GL
Oil smokin' since the last post which was right in front of the last bottom.
Dumb asses at DCs headless chicken farm have no clue what they're doing to those that can least afford it.
In reality they want to make them more reliant on the government teat. Tried to tell many this over a year ago.
Have not done any big pic work since Jan. so I can't answer your question. Busy with the community and since the market in most cases has been working fairly close to expectations I didn't see the need.
The kids have been doing all the work and I won't plagiarize their efforts.
I/T usually means a couple weeks to a couple months. The signal I had fulfilled the minimum requirements for an I/T hi so more is possible as I've stated several times before.
Cycles don't give a good indication of price levels, that is more complex and requires a passage of time thru what is thought to be a corrective period before they can get projected with accuracy. Many told me 4500 would not come in my life time.
In theory you could be right about holding up into Nov. If that happens then it might go sideways for a while before another oops.
How the market reacts at the marker points is very telling. A low of some degree right in here makes a lot of sense.
Had a couple PMs laughing about my hi yield plays from March of last year. Ya go ahead and laugh, look at em now. Add in the dividends and that beats most of em">
YUP fewer and few big pic calls will be offered since it appears they are amusing.