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@VP Harris:
“So, Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia, Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong…”
This who Biden sent to stop a war.
Man we are in trouble. . Are we this stupid to elect people like this? I just dont believe it but heard this with my own 2 hair filled ears.
Since I last mentioned oil, which was at the late Nov. low we're up about 70%. Wonder what it'll look like at the next marker/. Best ez money trade in 2 years and most missed it all.
So the Feb low was 4115, right where I posted no more shorts or about ES4100. That was a real time posting, doubt if some of the wise guys were able to make that swing point from full short to full long.
Was that a big low? HMMM maybe Still will be a great traders market for some time.
Back to my projects, letting the kids do the trading for me.
GL
over 600 round trip handles in less than a week,,,,, ya guess the markers do work
taking some time off, let the kids play for the scraps
Some dont believe in the marker system.. -128 on the open, no guess work needed
Thanks, It's all math..
Knowing where the markers are along with the underlying issues eliminates a lot nonsense. Sometimes finding the polarity for s/t moves is a bit hard when you start looking out more than 2-3 weeks. But as we move thru the maze we keep updating the counts, which allows us to be heavy handed.
Curious what the fri/Sat marker does. Like I said in my Fri. AM PM I'm pulling back again. Could be another whippy week.
235 handles in 25 hours, lol
Seldom do I post this. Last night the power timers said 2 days to a low. The underlying issues have been fantastic in calling the past few whipsaw plays but the cycles don't exactly agree this time. While we were looking down in late Feb some of this decline is news related so we could get a wild snap back in the next few days. Yup backing off the shorts again.
Will be back to silent mode until,,,,,,,,,,
this decline is no surprise to us. In early Feb we told the crew to expect the secondary hi to retreat into later Feb. Even gave a real time alert of the secondary hi 30 hours in advance.
Did more big pic work today, finding some new swing points.
been saying for several weeks we're heading into a traders market, new work suggests the same
Thanks for the kind words, so refreshing.
Economic historian? well sort of.. I am a big believer in history as was my grandfather and his father because history does repeat. Have said many times if you can't learn from history you'll know squat... The library of notes I'll be passing down is getting pretty deep.
A bit O/T. Some try to re-write history. You can't change the past and you can't run away from your future. However, you can make your future better if your remember past mistakes then work together to not repeat them.
Think in 1836, if I recall we had a surplus and it was given to the states. Then we went into a depression. Printing money was part of the cause followed by more debt due to the depression.
I could write a book about the debt issue. It would be highly controversial. But a few thoughts.
20 trillion spent in 14 years brings our debt to 30 T or so depending on the source. It'll probably get us, possibly in a few years and I'll wager non of the hot shot economists will see it coming. That's about $90K debt per person, to date .. A side note. From the late 50s thru about 1980 we spent $1T on developing nukes. Likely equal to 7-8 T today.
Household debt is at least 50% of what the national debt is and depending on the source maybe 65%.
Some say you can't mix household and national debt due to corporations, off shore taxes, tariffs etc.etc blah blah .. I might be going down a rabbit hole with this but it's my hole and I have my rubber duck. . It has to come to a head at some point, either we all default and start over or dig deeper or have nearly free money and live with inflation.
Not all inflation is bad. It's a natural occurrence, to some degree.
Some say raise corporate taxes. Do that and corporations will pass it on with higher cost of goods, again making it harder for those that can least afford it. Just like I said would happen with gas prices. Just another way for the left to talk smart and try to buy votes.
How stupid does Congress think we are? Must be pretty stupid as some stay in office for an eternity.
We need term limits for every office.
Got a 100 year loan? I remember when they were written for large land purchases and there has been some re-emergence of it.. That's basically what happened the past 20 years. Pass it on to our children and their children until,,,,,.. Sound sustainable if the average worker is responsible for all this debt, plus he has to pay rent or maintain a home, feed his family, pay utilities etc etc.?
,
There's nothing wrong with credit when used responsibly.
Nanny governments, which we are close to becoming will say they know how to better manage your life. Mean while in truth they try to obtain their personal objectives, practice insider trading and screw everyone for their personal gain..
Ever see a member of the headless chicken farm become poorer while in office?
No one knows how to save anymore. The left saw to this in the 30s. Here we go again, let the government do it for you while they steal from the SS coffers but then say SS is becoming a problem. Some that NEVER worked are collecting, I can go along with some of these payments but not many... At one point it was discussed being able to partially opt from SS. Had I the option even as a teenager I would have totally opted out were it possible.
Few young folks realize how the trend of our government can limit your freedom of choice,,,,,,, as history has shown.
I NEVER hedge my statements.
Been doing some big pic work but far from finished. Had a couple close calls on 2 s/t swing points lately so felt it's time to update some of this. Been over a year.
Maybe do more in May or after planting season. But looking like a bigger trading range than originally thought.
The next 2 markers look important more so for the second one.
repost.
Last hi alert was another winner.
Despite the BS I came back and gave one more freebie this month.
Some will say I got lucky due to the news. Again I always say somehow the news fits the cycles. 50+ years of doing this and at times it still amazes me.
However, PMers knew in early Feb where the secondary hi was due and when the next tradable low should hit..
Posted in early Feb in one my whipsaw alerts, //// Just having a chance to glance at things now, it appears we have another mid Jan type setup.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167723405
Why did I say this? Symmetry was written all over it,, a lesson that got interrupted.. plus the cycles confirmed the projection pattern.
Upside L/T targets are moving. But this keeps the s/t wave --PROJECTION-- rates over 95% accurate.
Staying mostly on the projection track with the sun low Tues hi. \ whipsaw or,,,,,,,,
Per my PM the market is doing about as expected. Symmetry into and out of the posted whipsaw trade has been almost perfect. and yes I have my calendar fixed.
It is amazing how entitled some people think they are.. and as I said,,, been there.. Had something similar happen to me but I had little tolerance for my parasite. He found out REAL fast this ram rod wouldn't play his game. The guy that forwarded the article reads this site and knew of my past issue with a neighbor about 40 years ago. He said, Kind of ironic huh?
There's an old saying something like, When everyone is angry with you, you must be doing something wrong to everyone or doing something very right. Seen it on this board and in real life. Many say it's jealousy camouflaged by anger.
I've said the debt is an issue and it will get us, but that's a ways off. I've paid surtax many times but never let it concern me about Medicare but I'm an old bastard too..
Time to shut my pie hole before I go on a rant,
Enjoying my time away but had to take a peak.
As I was leaving town it came to my attention that some seem to be concerned about my audience. So I'm taking a few moments out of my travel plans to address this.
Will repeat, I have nothing to gain by being here but am willing to help those that work with me!
If some had a clue what I did with my schedule during Jan. opex to try and keep some from smoking their account they'd shut their trap.
Since I stopped giving out most of the key and pivot dates, the participation is very low. I have no intent to spend the time needed to give it all away again. Those that did work with me have an arrangement with my nephew and no, he's not taking any more on.. A couple PMs here and there go out from myself when my schedule allows.
Over a year ago I was getting bull shit from a perma bear that wanted to know how I do it. I refused to open my playbook and she got nasty. At that time I nearly said screw it. But my love for the market and the simplicity in understanding the cycles and how it all fits together drew me back. Yet that issue did cause me to be less open.
A few weeks ago I mentioned I was backing away from posting on any frequent basis. I hinted that my input might drop to once a month or so. Recent issues has escalated this process and this statement is not hedged either.
BS will continue to be deleted by one of my monitors or myself. This attitude will remain.
Should this be the final post, so be it. Would be no skin off my nose.
Received the following question , which I'll share. The timing of this is ironic.
I am very concerned about people under 50. I do wonder if you have a similar concern. The only president who was open about the debt was H.W. Walker Bush and he was not reelected. I would like to know your thoughts if it is not too much trouble. Some people think the US will just muddle thru and I understand that belief .
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
So many younger people are expecting to get assistance or IOW live off the government teat. Ask any lefty and most will tell you everything should be free. Like free education. I would work, pay for a year of college and go back to work. Think I can get a refund on those expenses? HA But try to find any today that'll put their nose to the grindstone, heck not even if you held a gun to their head, lazy bumbs.
To be frank if I were younger I'd be concerned that the parasites might be coming after me. Not to sound callous, even though it will by some, by the time they get to be my age I'll be long gone.
Too many today want to play video games, walk around with a cell phone bumping into others and do nothing but get their free lunch.,,,,,,,, But then are fast to whine or point fingers at others when things go against them.
You reap what you sow.
This article was forwarded to me.
“Our old neighbor, Mr. B., passed away last year. “They eventually sold the house, and the new neighbors moved into the house in the fall. We noticed they didn’t have any lawn mowers or snow blowers, so we told them that they should get those things sooner rather than later since we typically start getting snow in November.”
“A few times when I was out mowing, the neighbor asked me to mow their lawn, and I obliged but told him that they should really consider getting their own yard tools or calling a service. We just had a huge snowfall and are expected to get more this weekend.”
Despite the warnings, the neighbors did not prepare for the poor weather.
“The neighbor came to my house early on Sunday morning and banged on my door asking when I was going to be out snow blowing as they need to get to work,” the Reddit poster wrote. “I told the neighbors that I was not going out to shovel/snow blow any time soon, so they may want to dig their cars out so they could get to work. He told me that they didn’t have any shovels and explained that they were relying on me to come over and take care of it.”
“I told him that I was not planning on doing that, told him that he could borrow a shovel if he would like, but I was going back to bed. When I did go out to shovel and snow blow several hours later, I did not do their driveway. The neighbors are now angry at me, and he confronted me outside, saying that it was my fault that they had to call out of work.”
Yup been there.
Back to PMs for a while.
Posting here is done out of the goodness of my heart. When I see someone is about to get smoked I will step in and try to steer them away from it as I did in the middle of the Jan opex week.. After the dusts settles I will go back and review what happened, which I did.
I'm willing to help but there is no tolerance to any any sideways smart ass comments directed to me or anyone else.
From real world sources, that I will not disclose.
VST is very short term, 12-36 hours and usually on the short side. The whipsaw pattern calls near highs are not highly reliable, maybe 60%. When bottoms are being put in they're easy to spot and we'll normally play it pretty hard as we seldom miss them. When it appears a top is near we pay attention to the count but use our intraday systems to act on it or not. Many times I'll back off some, use that cash to put on a hedge and see how it plays out. The deeper we are into a cycle will determine how aggressive I get.
Many times these whips seem to come from nowhere, but I've said for years the cycles will usually front run news events. When we can count it out and it hits, that says something about the caliber of our work. Many try to play on cycles alone and that usually gets them in trouble.
I don't know if the Fed is in a corner but I don't see them ripping off the band aid.. Things have mostly followed projections and the market is expecting some inflation restrictions.
Thanks about the community. Lucky? Ah well I am dedicated to it and busted my ass to make sure it was done right for everyone. Almost 15 years into it. The first 3 years were the hardest. The recent expansion went fairly well as we have lot of trades people living here. No one ever seems to have an issue when it's time to lend a hand, which is part of the like minded idea everyone agrees to before given the option to buy in.
Think I'll apply for an old farts position. Heard there's an opening for a stump sitter and being able to read a calendar is not part of the criteria. I should be able to handle that without hedging anything or getting smoked due to a bad decision.
Holy crap, talk about stoooopid. I've been very busy siding a new house by myself, We had a nice break in the weather so I'm doing some outdoor work,
Got MY calendar all messed up, Was thinking today is Thurs. WRONG, even though we did pull back a bit on the AM report. Tomorrow is the day we could see a whipsaw or start of a pullback.
Good thing the kids are doing the trading. My nephew said, what's the worry unk? Today should be fine, overall. Ya gesh
Think this ole fart will go back to his hammer and nails. Can't read a darn calendar.
Was looking for a whipsaw and it might have been Wed morning. We are now entering a timing window where we could stall or reverse.
Looked at the power indicators this morning and they are saying more up. Got a big report in a minute that could do something, The kids took some off the table here.
Mid Feb looks important, more when I get caught up, haven't been paying a lot of attention. Kids running the show.
It should be, the whipsaw is a VST pattern play. Timing cycles give us until Sun/Mon for a s/t hi with today/early tomorrow as the earliest.
Just having a chance to glance at things now, it appears we have another mid Jan type setup.
and still see a shot at 5K again
will soon know
2 weeks ago said early Feb should be positive, as the cycles said so and it is positive, and if it was positive we might be looking at at whipsaw.
If we get a whipsaw into Fri the upside could be limited again.
This morning dip and whip could be it but if we finish strong than tomorrow is more likely.
You're freebie for this month and I reserve the damn right to be wrong 5% of the time.
Cycles rule 95% of the time.
So I get a PM about data and new jobs etc. Hell I'll put out there.
Who can trust what these headless chicken shit assholes say???
They've already been exposed for announcing false data numerous times, most recently the quarterly GDP
When a business had 50 employees and then had to close down or partially shutdown causing 25 layoffs, then hired back 10, the libturds say THEY created 10 new jobs. In reality we still lost 15. Fuzzy math like chicken hawk retard Bushwacker used to use.
I work with real world data, has kept me on the right side for 52 years.
ONO
I never saw an economist that could trade the market. Stats are great but they NEVER see corrections coming. Case in point my former tax accountant was an economist from a big bank in NY... Feb of 2000 I was in his office and we got talking about the markets. I said a big dip is coming, he gave me an endless list of why I was wrong. I asked if he wanted to bet a C-note on this, he refused, said it was gambling. I laughed and shut up.
When I hear the word smoke, that tells me you're on the wrong side. I was giving hints all over the place that Jan was bad into the fed, said to be watching mid Jan, said weeks before if we hold into mid Jan but not at the late Dec levels it aint good, and it wasnt. Said opex could be bad and it was, mid opex week was looking for a 50 point pop, we got it plus a bit and said fed week would be a whipsawer and it was.
CYCLES RULE!
Even mentioned 2-3 times that 4800 was it, also said we might take another shot at the 5K area but it'll probably be another sell.,
I have NOT done much big picture work yet, most of what I'm working with is almost a year old. Odd are I'll not do any more until this fall unless things start to work against me.
My trading group gets the good work. Internet freebies will continue to be basic and NO I will NOT fire up my old sub service as I do not want to be tied to this damn computer every day..
CYCLES RULE>
So on to inflation. and I'll repeat, the current inflation cycle should start to slack off. But a little history of what I did almost 2 and 3 years ago.
First if some recall I bought a large farm next to our original homestead. Why? I saw it coming. Had mentioned that I sold our motorhome so I'd have time to work on projects.
Then I saw a need for new equipment, so about 18-20 months ago I went on a buying spree, bet I saved the community over $350K by buying equipment, cars and 2 trucks before we needed them. Now I've been selling our used and worn out shit for good prices. I caught a little heat from some that don't understand how markets work but now most have seen the light.
From my personal account I bought truck loads of lumber and building supplies in March 2020, yup right when I was telling everyone on this site we were in the middle of a once in a lifetime event. I got all the families together that had bought 5 acre plots and drew up estimates, bought enough to carry us thru all of our expansion projects going into mid 2023 almost enough to finish everything in our long term plans. That alone saved the average family here about $40K.
CYCLES RULE.
Last year when I said a correction was coming, I'd get PMs about how it can't happen, but we had several. Now when I say correction, it's almost panic as the Jan dip opened some eyes. But I did say 5K was likely before we'd get a correction worth talking about.
NOTE I'm still using the word correction.
Sure it's a bear market rally? I'll give it even odds. For the S/T yes it is.
But this again all goes back to ones own time frame. Some permas will hold thru anything bulls and bears.
Per interest rates I'd love to see the Fed rip the bandaid off with 2% increase over the next 18 months but it wont happen. We cant have these government communist freebees with higher interest rates. Keep the rates low and the government can borrow money almost for free.
Per inflation it's an event few saw coming but those in our inner circles were very aware of inflation coming. Why did I pound the table so hard on oil almost 2 years ago and have stayed with it? Pretty simple but the economist never saw it coming.
The inflation cycle will start to slack off soon but not fully subside. All the price increases coming at us will NOT hold the market up.. I'll say it again, we are heading into a traders market that few have seen or experienced.
Traders market means trade trade trade
The wage increases will offset the prices increases. It's a constant game.
Per the Japanese theme, I mentioned it a few months ago.
CYCLES RULE<
More when I get a minute.
The members of the headless chicken farm says no inflation in food prices???
Beef has doubled in price...
Bacon has gone up in the last quarter...
Milk fish, eggs and poultry are mush higher than a year ago...
Fresh fruits and vegetables still rising in price...
Food producers have announced price increases in products in the next few months...
Beverages and sports drinks are rising beginning in March...
Kraft Foods announced processed meat (lunchmeat) price increases up to 30% in a few weeks...
But those lying maggots say there's no food inflation... Of course not since those of US that WORK, ya a 4 letter word to some, provide for them.
Sure am glad I listened to my step daughter over 12-13 years ago and formed this community. As of last spring we're probably 90% self sufficient so those bastards can't hurt us much other than invade us.
Said Fed week would be whippy, kids are making a small fortune. Markers work!
Still say a traders market like few have seen is coming.
.
and another part of the puzzle was done this week. Had been wondering if 4800-ish was a B wave off the Dec low or a 3 of 5. Either way it was posted 2-3 times the upside was limited...We came close to a long term target of 5K before we'd get a correction worth mentioning, which was projected a year ago.
The Bs have it.
The next level to work off is the Oct low for more clarity and using symmetry should tell you what's next. Ya you have to figure it out yourself..
A few days before the Jan hi I said 4800 was it. I do have a count that allows a shot at that hi in the not too distant future. If it happens in a certain time period down again. This is a traders market like we've not seen for years.
Going into midweek I was looking for 50 point pop. Got 60-70 depending cash or futures which was close enough to confirm other things.
Said Jan opex could be a problem.
Back to my hobbies.
Last night in my haste I made an error. Was thinking of 2 things at the same time. The spooz could have some issues next week but then recover in early feb.
An early Feb pop might turn into a whipsaw. Seeing lots of turns for several weeks.
good question, timing is right or almost there for a s/t low. Earnings going into full gear now. Jan opex has a history of issues about 70% of the time.
Fed next week might take us into another whippy situation and as you mentioned early Feb could have some issues.
I preach to the gang to keep a schedule of events to come, inflation reports, jobs, fed minutes etc. etc. they all give us a whip or saw depending.
The guys are lightly long but holding some shorts from 4800-ish, more of hedge trade right now.
Miners and oil, wow.. Miners are IMO still a traders market but not for much longer if things play out as expected over the next few months.
Now that I have everyone pissed off, I'll give you a little secret.
Today was a Fun day for s/t bears, For those that need help look at the symmetry the market has shown since the Oct Low.
We had a sym trade this fall that made a killing for us. I mentioned sym trade 4-5 times, WHAMMO what a beautiful thing.
There's a bit of code talk here, I'm not just giving out the answer some are looking for.
The first correction was expected at 4500-ish we went over by 50 so 4550-ish and corrected 200 points. ,.
The next target was 4800 and we expected another correction, so far about 225 points. The timing bands says this is the 2nd of 3 corrective bands within a 3 wave down leg of an IT cycle.. for wave IV
Assume we have a 50 point rebound this week that would give us 4625, but a 3rd leg is still coming another 200?? points down, possibly but 3rd are usually the short leg in a multi week correction within an overall bull. if so it bottoms around 4425-4475.
If you look at a daily chart there's a crap load of support near 4500 or the original peak before any corrective activity worth talking about was expected to happen.
You can use FIB#s and extensions but they don't work as well as symmetry. And always use futures numbers, than convert to cash price if you want more accuracy.
This part you have to figure out yourself. If you use time symmetry you' come damn close to when the timing cycles say the next big pivot hits. Lets see if anyone can find it..
Symmetry,and algrebra can give you 80% of the answers,. .
This is not how I do projections but a "kind of barnyard way" to do it. You'll find it works close enough for typical investing as to when it's time to add to longs.
You can use the same info, reversed to find when the next top should hit after the downside is for certain done. i
that'll be $50
FYI/Note/
Was asked about expected price levels for a correction. I'm backing away from this except for those that work with me. However, for me it's more about time than price, which I've mentioned SEVERAL times. When it's viewed as a correction I don't get excited but will trade it or have my nephew do the swings for me if my schedule conflicts.
There's more work into obtaining these levels, sometimes a year in advance than most could imagine. You'll find guys that put up a level, have it broken and change their outlook day after day, something I do maybe once in 20 times.
For the past 8-9 months or so I've been focusing more on the EZ money trades. These are the ones I do not have to watch the market more than 2-3 times a week and sometimes much less. No one has given any feedback on these plays for almost a year so it's now reserved for myself and the group.
The real money is playing these slow EZ money trades or playing the s/t wiggles in the market.
I've mentioned that my schedule does make it easy for me to watch the market every day during normal hours. The guys do this off my markers and they have it figured out..
Again I'll be giving fewer big pic calls, but will not totally walk away, just yet.
and since I last mentioned Crude, up, up and away again. 1 of 2 EZ money trades we've been in while everyone gets whipsawed to death.
Near term softness would not surprise me but more upside is still likely. Sorry but facts are facts and some can't handle the truth as to why crude stays up.
Next crude marker I'll be silent. No hints since there's no apparent interest in EZ money
WAs looking for 4800, got 4818. Close enough for me. so 3 0f 5, now a 4 with a 5 to come or was that a B. Can still count it either way but a new count is forming. either way the upside is still limited as was suggest last week.
I'm still not posting all the twists and turns, that's for the trading group.
There's a statement that should be framed and hung on the office wall. It is so very true.