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ya this little pop changes a couple things. Whipsaw time?
thanks
Ya I guess not too bad, wasn't fully loaded for it like I usually do.
have come up with 3 possible key dates for the I/T, one was publicly mentioned. Much like Jan/Feb when we had a slew of hits one of them should work. Still working .
Hmmm well late sep and late oct were my last big markers. Still working on future markers looking for the next I/T hi like we hit in early Sep. Dec could get a bit whippy.
Was able to put some hedges on Sun nite for a couple days, I think
and still holding my March spider, diamond and other hi yield unleveraged plays.
those big numbers we discussed in April and a couple months back still compute but one system backed off a couple hundred points. sooooo
well, today I took my first set of profits on the PM sector from turkey time. Not getting bearish just need some time to finalize my counts and raise some cash for other things of interest.
After reviewing weekly data the spoz counts are all over the map. Daily counts are shifting so it might take me well over a week to get up to speed..
New trade for the PM group might take a couple weeks to fully develop. This might be easier than I thought once the corner is seen.
Came to within a coupe points of our lower side target.
In a perfect world we'll correct fast than pop into next Fri-Mon 3750ish, then correct harder, in a perfect world.
Worked out fairly close,
still getting my markers lined up, take me about a week maybe a bit more to complete.
Wonder if Harry Truman is stirring in his grave. All the bullshit going on makes me wonder.
oh ya this is nice working weather. Worked a couple hours, will go in for lunch in a bit then go back out again for a couple hours. Hey I got Internet in my workshop now. Whoo hoo
Have to give my step daughter credit for the communal idea.
So true, It also helps to know your local boards and zoning people. I told them I was coming in with an emergency application and they approved it in 3 days. Most times you'll wait 2 months or more.
Weather has been on our side. Think we only had 4 rain days. Nice here today, cool about 15 above but I'm heading out in a few minutes to do some stuff for a few hours. Can always tack on some siding or something.
And I have to give the young bucks credit. When I give them a job there's no fuss. Many of us are tradesmen, got 2 gals that are top notch electricians.. We work well together and get more done in a couple weeks then most contractors do in a month. We dont have labor issues, its a community thing and everyone does what they can.
My buddys' wife, the lumber guy worked with a real estate developer for many years. So right there I get a lot of tips that have been very helpful as she worked in our county..
Go see if I can find nutcase Norton
3700+ then correct? Bull count says consolidate a day or 2 then pop and correct.. Bear counts says todays hi was it for a while. Biased bull count but still working on marker points.
Been out of the loop for a while, kids been running the show.
got 2 counts going on the PMs. Ya fine I'll figure it out
Ya POW right in the kisser... We busted our asses to get the sites prepared, roadway, separate driveways, septic systems, water lines and got 3 homes up and wrapped before the weather turns. We got started with foundation work in early Aug. so it was priority. Still got indoor stuff but they're liveable. Next spring we'll be busy with 4 homes but will have all summer to do them.
Next spring the girls want to convert an old storage building into a rec hall. They got a rec hall but with everyone having covid babies next spring and summer plus new people moving in next year they'll need more space.
Time to tie the knot on these young guys. I got a rusty jack knife, maybe the threat of that is all that's needed..
Problem is my shed is full of building materials for next springs projects. Have a friend that's in the lumber business. Last April I told him we were buying the farm next door and expanding. Right then and there he said to get my plywood order, insulation board, appliances and other items in right away. He said a squeeze is coming and boy was he right. Materials are coming thru again but some stuff is still expensive.
I guess next summer I'll be adding on the rec hall. They ain't getting my storage shed.
Love the old Honeymooners. Still watch them once or twice a week.
ah shit life just happened, gonna' get pulled away for a while. Woman have a new project for me. Shit we built 3 new homes this fall. If I have too much idle time they find me, thanks to my wife in most cases.
Working on some things for another ez money trade like energy was in late Oct. Nothing really pops out right now. Play the chops works. Today could be a key date but unsure for how long.
When we sold our leveraged energy stuff near turkey day I switched over to the PMs. Not sure if this is gonna' be ez. I expect it to chop for a while and if it does that's good for the bigger picture. Still working out the markers here.
go see what the hell the girls want. #$%^&&
you trading or taking a long winters nap? Got some interesting markers if you are.
hey stranger how's it going? Deer hunting just ended here, lots guys going for their bucks. We had a good haul this year, better than most probably means we'll get crap come bow season in a few weeks.
HAPPY THANSKGIVING
Those that played along probably had their best month since April.
energy plays just smoking' since our late oct entry. Sold our leveraged plays today for allocation to other areas.
It pays to work together.
energy stocks keeps working, that was our private group ez money play while everything else chops. Likely need to start hedges soon.
GL
Vax news not giving the market the usual swell any more even though
sun was a pivot. Need more good news.
depends on when and where the I/T lo comes in. Have many markers to deal with for a while,
So the call was for GDX to hit 45 and then kaboom. Been a great traders market though. Given time we should take out the old hi, given time but it aint ready yet.
One thing that messes people up with big cap energy like XLE and oil itself is they dont always cycle together. Note XLE put in a higher hi since late Oct. while oil is putting in a lower hi so far.
EZ money trade up 35% for the PM group, cashing in some xle, yup energy was the ez play,
the easy money trade up 30% since oct 30.... lots more to come after a good whipsaw
permas havent made a dime in months. Nice pop off the last marker , oh well back to work
like taking candy from a baby, just need to know how the markers are stacked. Has little to do with the frikin elections
last publicly posted marker was for late Oct. Expect lots of whipsawing for a while.
Have talked of the easy trades in the past, which only a few gave a shit about. No one likes to make easy money as I've seen it. The next easy sector trade should be fitting and it will likely piss off the lefties.
first target reached
see no one wants to make money, well ok honey
Rain day, just looking over the kids shoulder.
In late aug PMs the call was for the next low in mid-ish Sep. and up. lo came in a couple days later than originally projected but So far on track
perma bears got caught flat footed, In PMs we had a s/t target of 3570ish overshot by 20 points. No biggie. Permas bulls dont believe it.
Traders market has returned for many many weeks. Permas will argue to end of the world what it means. Sideways markets build cause, but that goes both ways.. Our underlying indicators and knowing where the markers are give us all the clues we need.
Market got interesting again. We did overshoot our s/t targets by 18 points, oh well
permas that got shook out in the early April whipsaw must be kicking themselves.
In PMs we were looking for 3520,
got bigger numbers,,, out there.
No biggie, it was raining and is again right now so I took a few minutes to see how things are going. So far all is as planned.
keeping busy
Got a rain day. All projections remain on track,
Will be busy developing a new property for the next couple years.
I'll continue PMs with those that have worked with me as time allows.
Should someone want to take over as moderator and do what ever they want with this site I'll step aside.
Hey bud, this Bud's for you ``clink``. Actually it's a Miller.
Back when I told the gang I was expecting 45-ish on GDX one of the guys asked if he could have a pound of what I was smoking. Boy I'm going to rub it in with him when I get back.
Today we hit one of our upside objectives and surpassed it a bit. Still have one left for the near term.. and still have bigger ones, out there.
I should apologize. I get a bit testy when no one else gives anything in return. Reminds me of the days I ran a sub service, lots of hand holding but when you're paid for your work that's expected.
It won't be long and I'll not be looking at s/t stuff anyway. I'll get into this after I get home.
45 was a target we generated in early May.....
Due to lack of board participation I'm keeping further thoughts with gold etc. private with the home group . I've said it before, no participation the less I offer.. Maybe in a few weeks I'll expand on this thought.
I was gonna' say something like, how'd you like the last whipsaw call?, but had to be fast was unsure how long I'd keep my connection..Here at a diner things are fine.
Probably had a brain fart and didn't say anything about the cycles being fast. . Been busy that's my lame brain excuse and I'm sticking to it.. This type of activity is fairly normal coming out of a big low. Add in the fed juice and it's gets more extreme. Best example of this acceleration in time was in late June when I said up into early July, then PMd we'd hold into mid July. The last post fed whipsaw alert is another. Said the 1-3 day short play after the fed should change, that short lasted 18 hours and I made that alert right at the low by simply counting hourly bars.. It's a math thing that gets rather involved.
When s/t cycles run fast I like to use the hare and tortoise comparison.
The next 2 markers are buggin' me. If the cycles are still running fast, and I think they are, they might be another topping phase, which was my bias before leaving home. Not having access to my system I can only guess what my nephew is seeing..
Put a hedge against my l/t stuff today. I'll give it 3 days to work. It's just a hedge, for now as I see no sell signal after the close. Doesn't mean we wont get another fast whip.