Retired
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Couple of my partners have been short bonds for months, they just closed most of them, holding a core until whenever. I dont trade bonds much other than hiyield/junk but do pay attention to them.
Covid threw a few monkey wrenches into things. I though that the fed might look at raising rates by now. The market it saying it must happen. Once it does then I think the long side will be a play maybe later this year..
But it doesn't change my interest in PMs.
Oil etc has been one hell of a money maker. We had a reaction right after my last post about it, should be another soon, might be a bigger one this time but bigger picture I'm still a bull. The more money these dumb asses throw away the worse it'll end for the consumer.
I told my gang near the 2020 lows be ready to pay if you want to play. Gas prices haven't gone up as much as they usually do in comparison to oil but they should catchup before it ends. Every time these hypocrites do this shit the sheep don't realize it's their way of leveraging an agenda at our expense..
Took a couple hours and did some marker work,,, but far from done.
I'll share this in public, today or tomorrow is the earliest an I/T lo can come in for gold.
Other issues are holding well and even out performing, which boosts my interest in the overall groupings related to the XAU...
Might be a tease for a while.
Ya boy good question,
Well speaking strictly about gold,, Price wise I was thinking 1600/40, we got close. This goes then mid 1500s
Going into late Nov. the dollar was expected to turn into a traders market and so far it has. This makes me hesitate and have been playing 1-5 day swings off my s/t system with the dollar and PMs since late Nov. Have not traded gold itself, just the ETFs and Rydex with good results as it only takes me 5 minutes a day to play.
However, for sometime I've felt March or April would bring in another I/T low with bias to March.... I've not taken the time to work out the markers to be more precise.
Bonds should be the key.
I should work on those markers, have been busy remodeling a kitchen. But if my SnP markers mean anything the crazy swings should continue for a while.
PMers refer to nephews charts. I'll be getting busy again, spring is in the air.
Wife had first covid shot, Moderna, about 2 weeks ago. No issues to date. 4 others here have the same results.
I'm waiting a while longer.
After many months my first target on crude has been hit. Reaction? No sell signal yet but,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Last post was exactly at a Key point. PMers knew it
Markers are working very well. Traders market galore again
Find it interesting how politics can influence some weak minds. Many libs were complaining last summer that the markets would go up into the elections while some cons were saying the same. We had pointed out months in advance a major turn was due in late Sep and/or late Oct. but gave no direction to those that didnt contribute.
I've seen many miss out on moves due the hate of a certain political figure. The bush rally was probably the most hated rally ever.
Let the markets tell you what is happening thru cycles and the underlying issues... Throw your politics in the trash when trading and your wallet will thank you.. Simple as that.
Back to my chores
In early Dec I mentioned Harry Truman, that was a code to the PM group that the buck stops here trade was coming into play soon. Now the dollar has flown the coup. That might turn into a traders market soon.
Ya want the good trades you have to get involved.
Oil keeps going, bought every pull back the past few months.
Couple weeks ago the big defender of union jobs blasted a bunch of oil jobs to hell and oil keeps going.
Those that have my big pic outlook, per price projections remains unchanged.
Previously mentioned PMs remain fairly easy to swing with. Markers have been running about 90%, not bad in my view. Not being greedy and taking some profits even if it looks early is working fine.
Still see this as a traders market for a bit longer.
Have to chuckle a bit, after the last pop they added silver shares to dilute things, which makes no difference to me. Those that can't read the writing on the wall will have a problem.
As Jan goes so goes the year?? Jan was nothing but a traders market. Markers said it'd be whippy.
Now 3 days and we almost made up for 3.5 weeks of sideways to up after the expected correction. Too much too fast?
12 hours after my post we tagged the new years lo and POW.
Markers still working after 6 whipsaws
The early Jan lo holding is somewhat important for the S/T.
4 weeks ago I said a correction was likely in a couple weeks.
The last warning of a correction posted last Sun nite was spot on. Markers have been working darn well.
GL
and whipped it again 5 times in 5 days. What a riot
and these whipsaws could continue for some time.
GL without the markers
and the 4th big swing in 4 days as the markers said.
markers said jan could be whippy. 3 big swings in 3 days,
markers were right and those that had em made a bundle
a 4th is possible
We get a little mid month correction and the bears came out of the woodwork. Not yet guys. Getting our higher hi as projected.
Having fun trading the dollar and PMs.
Fri we hit our projection from the long play called for off the post fed dip but generated another possibly slightly higher hi.
Dec was expected to be whippy and like Dec Jan might get whippy if the markers are right.
Moving all projects points forward a day sets up more whipsaws
Whenever you come back, the last 4-5 days action cemented most of my I/T thoughts. However it is slowly changing my late Feb thinking. Mid Feb should confirm.
Energy has been my big trade since late Oct. Think the easy money has been made. Sold a fair amount today, still holding l/t plays plus a bit extra in dividends players as I dont think the I/T hi is in.
Might let myself get stopped out of any remaining newer buys. Todays sell gives me more cash to s/t trade with too.
Last March I posted at several points this is a once in a lifetime event.
Permas were betting heavily in options for a disaster in Dec, proves again how a permanent attitude just does not work.
Mid year I posted late Sep and or late Oct would be important, which I'm sure most got faked out on.
I never once talked bearish after mid March. Was looking for corrections a couple times and that was all. In fact I mentioned several times I'm still holding my March buys. Took my first profits last week to raise trading cash as posted.
This year could again have lots of big swings.
Busy with indoor work until spring. The holidays are done, back to work.
Got markers updated thru mid Feb.
Now I can take a break for a few weeks.
Yesterdays pop was the minimum expectations the PM group was aware of and yesterday was a marker so I used the pop to unload a few l/t things and started a short build. We have many markers over the next couple weeks any of which could begin a correction.
I am selling more of my March buys right in here due to being cash poor, not enough cash for a good hedge setup..
further public comments withheld until the air clears. Those that contribute get the markers etc.
Got all markers updated thru Jan.??
PMs continue to be fairly easy to trade since late Nov.
up 100+ points in a week
markers dont lie making adjustments
Happy new year
After the Fed we were looking for a dip to possibly 3600. The mid month lo held which is somewhat important. Interesting to see how things react at the upcoming markers.
Talked of energy many times, still outperforming while everything else chops. Some easy money trade.
PMs coming off their expected cycle low which last Fri. I mentioned was due early this week.
Spooz should be near another hi of sorts.
Taking another board break until???
Happy holidays.
Said I was cautious of shorting near fridays low. And the whipsawing call has worked well, The S/T PMd call was whip up into the Fed.
Now the rubber meets the road. More whipping or another bear whipping.
enjoy your time away.
Whipsaw markets require a strong stomach.
Look at the German Dax then compare it to the Nyse, Dow and SnP. Seeing what might be a problem at least to these old eyes.. See if you spot anything but I'm having problems with the higher targets at least for this burn. The lower #s still seem to fit.
Getting the markers updated, will get them out when done, probably by X-mas.
Hey Chuck, I'm an old grand fathered in member but am unable to find this company. Good luck
What's really sick is no mention of the JFK assassination and Pearl Harbor day was skimmed over by the low life media. Just sickening how biased they've become.
rant over
Pretty sure the PMs cycle is getting pushed out like we discussed.
the original count was for a hi early this week, ya sorta hit. drop into early thurs. pop today, low mon or tues up into opex but whipsawing all the way into x-mas.
3625 first S
Alt counts says Tues/Wed was the I/T hi but still lots of whipping to trade on.. sort of working that way but I'm being cautious with my shorts right here.
PMs looking like they want to do their final rally. Counts says a lo early next week but most of these s/t cycles were still running fast..
Doing this fast and on the run. Lots to do here and the weather is still allowing lots of outside work.
Get er' done!
the Tues afternoon pop did change my counts. I'm not very bullish any more. Not enough time to get into it and fully sort it out yet