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Could be an interesting day in the EUR.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/greek-pensioners-start-bank-runs-after-payments-delayed-10218114.html
Yep.
Thats one reason I have moved to the longer time frames, to stop missing out the money.
What happened to that 121 TP number?
Looks like the fed statement may send it moving lower.
A Little reading info for anyone interested.
Trying to make sense of the bond sell off today.
The correlations are broken. The dollar is dumping on a soft GDP report; the thinking being that the Fed will wait longer to hike because of a soft economy.
Makes sense right?
It does until you look at the bond market. It's doing the opposite. Treasury yields are ripping higher, implying a more hawkish Fed.
US 10-year yields instantly plunged to 1.99% from 2.03% on the GDP data but have promptly rebounded to 2.06%, the highest in 5 weeks.
It's a similar story at the front end with 2-year yields at a one-month high. Even Dec Eurodollar futures are down today after a little spike on GDP. It implies the bond market doesn't believe the Fed will be more dovish.
Or is it a massive unwind of a big macro trade?
Major macro traders like Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach have been touting German Bund shorts and there is something going on in Europe. Bond yields there have shot higher, with German 10s up 12 basis points to 0.285% today alone.
That could have FX implications as well.
"It appears many foreign buyers of Bunds did so on a currency-hedged basis while many holders of Treasuries did so un-hedged, thinking additional USD gains would augment the yield advantage," writes Bob Sinche of Amherst Pierpont today.
So if those unwind, it means that Bund as foreign buyers sell Bunds, they'll have to buy euros and sell dollars to take the hedge off. That's probably the best bet for what's happening today.
[German bunds] German Bunds -- looks like a rush to the exits, no?
The short version.
We know that FX traders are short euros and long dollars but it's also a gigantic trade in bond markets. All the foreigners who front-ran ECB QE via German bonds are getting out of the trade. Because they hedged the FX side of the trade by selling euros and buying USD, they have to reverse the trade.
By the same token, many Europeans may have bought Treasuries unhedged, expecting the euro to keep falling but they're now feeling the FX squeeze.
Even shorter version.
All evidence points to this as a pure euro short squeeze.
I hope you are correct because I am currently hung way short. Got busy this morning and with that pop the price got away from me. To far down to jump ship now. Had one like this a few years ago and I just held tight and went from a 2k loss to a 11k win. No guts no glory I guess.
Not to sure about that, someone wants the dollar down all of a sudden for some reason.
Those trend lines should help with the entry and exits.
I can give you a few reasons which some people may not like, but I am going to say it anyway. One is you are human and inquisitive like most of us. Someone post something new and we want to give it a try which is the reason I am down considerably in EU right now. I tried something new instead of sticking with what I know. Once I drew my trend lines I knew I had messed up. But that is my fault. Two, the boards are the downfall of many new traders. We get on these boards and start reading and someone like SG and pennies who has been trading for years starts posting different stuff and we try to follow them on their trading strategies and fail. Everyone should find their own and stick to it which is the reason I rarely post anymore, I tend to get caught up in trying different indicators and get burnt. And three we tend to try and trade to much, I have learned that with the daily and 4 hour time frames it slows our trading down. With the chart I showed you, I try to enter at the trend lines and set my stops outside of them so if they do not hold I am out and don't get caught in a big move because the trend line break tends to be explosive many times.
I will post a chart so you can see an example of what I am talking about when I have a chance. The easiest thing is look for the intersections at the trend lines.
Heavyweight, if I might make a suggestion to help with the tops and bottoms and something that has helped me is drawing trend lines on the daily chart. You will be surprised at how accurate they usually are. I usually look for a 5 wave sequence at hitting the upper and lower trend line with the fifth wave usually being the final hit before a big move one way or the other. Just a thought.
The tank appears to be beginning.
That almost looks like bollinger bands instead of the cog indicator.
Found a thread about the COG system being used with some different indicators along with a variation of the COG that supposedly does not repaint.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=113602
Yep, in one terminal.
Nopt sure why, but i have 2 or 3 indicator files.
I finally got it to work, I had put it in the wrong indicator file. Thanks
ok, thanks.
pennies is there something special about getting the COG indicator to load into MT4. I put it in, but it does not show up when I try to add it to my chart.
Thanks
Pennies can you post you settings on this chart, looks pretty interesting.
It changes from a short on Friday to a Long tonight, interesting.
Looks like we have the perfect setup showing on GBP/AUD. Showed up Friday. Your system is showing short and so is the trend lines.
I see it hit my .99 and stupid me closed out last night before bed.
Nice call, looks like my trend lines did not hold.
Yep you too, thanks.
Below the trend line so the noise does not stop me out. Did use your system this morning and made some pips. I like the system and I am trying to tie it and the trend lines together. I like two signals giving the same answer.
Thats why I was asking, my chart was showing .99 first. Thanks,
The the link below is a chart of why I am asking?
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/2953439/audcad-h4-oanda-division1
What time frame are you using to make a decision to go short.
I would think they would expect the customer to cover the negative balance in their account even though the broker is on the hook.
Got this from oanda after the big move. Seems they are good to the point of forgiving some clients negative balances.
"Early on January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) sent global financial markets into turmoil with a surprise move to eliminate its three-year-old cap on the franc (CHF).
In the wake of this unprecedented market event, OANDA demonstrated its ongoing commitment to doing right by its clients. Despite suffering losses and vanishing liquidity in the institutional hedging market, OANDA remained true to its 14-year legacy of transparency, integrity and fairness to our clients. OANDA did not re-quote or amend any CHF cross client trades. We even took the further step of forgiving all negative client balances that were caused when clients could not close out their positions fast enough (where permitted by regulations). "
As a very well capitalized broker, we are proud to report that it is business as usual at OANDA: client trading, deposits and withdrawals are processing normally.
OANDA is proud of its strong reputation for fairness and integrity. We thank our customers for their continued loyalty and welcome new traders who want to experience outstanding service and execution.
Specific questions about individual fxTrade accounts will be addressed by our Client Experience team via http://www.oanda.com/corp/contact/.
Thank you for trading with OANDA,
signature
Ed
President and CEO, OANDA Corporation
It's just like most contest, it's rigged.
Yep, through common sense out the door.
Kiwi at it again.
Ok, thanks.
Anyone else notice what GN did on mt4 at the end of the day, for some reason it dropped, but td does not show the drop. Looks lie a penny stock painter from when I was trading those crazy things.
You and me both, I have gotten stuck in GN and can not get it to move up so I can get out.