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thats same timezone as nasdaq?
Plenty shorts action last 10 minutes yesterday
probably more during theday as well
still very encouraged by the csco and avnx reports
jdsu as in the questions by the analyst admitted to still having some production restraints
with finney's planned production rampupand the lawsuitsi reckon the forward statements and outlook should be very positive in contrast to those by jdsu, whichc did have a strong quarter as well, just absolutely nowhere near the good shape that fnsr is in now
What char software do you use btw?
still using foreign broker atm
Finisar VS directv Ruling
(older news, but good to keep in mind prognasting fnsr future revenue streams)
Basically the court says the patent was indeed infringement upon and that that was very clear.
The willfullness was less clear, but since directv has not taken any action since they got a letter in 2004, the judge ruled for willfull infringement as well and punitive damages as a result
Transcipts
Part 1
http://www.fr.com/news/Finisar-v-Directv_Transcript1.pdf
Note page 115:
"The closeness of the case, the closeness of the --
the case was close on several issues. Infringement wasn't a
close call particularly in the court's view, but anticipation
and obviousness were close. Willfullness fell somewhere in
between. This factor doesn't strongly and enhancement or a major enhancement. "
Part 2
http://www.fr.com/news/Finisar-v-Directv_Transcript2.pdf
Judgement:
http://www.fr.com/news/Finisar-Judgement.pdf
Full page 115 (OCR capture)
-------------------------------------------------------
1 TALKING ABOUT IN THIS CASE, WHAT PEOPLE TALKED ABOUT WAS 79
2 MILLION IS NOT VERY MUCH. I GUESS AS ONE OF MY PARTNERS USED
3 TO SAY: A WHOLE LOT BETTER THAN A POKE IN THE EYE OF A SHARP
4 STICK. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A LOT OF MONEY HERE; AND YEAH,
5 MAYBE NOT A LOT COMPARED TO 1.6 BILLION. BUT I THINK IT'S
6 IMPORTANT TO GET DOWN TO REALITY. THERE'S A LOT OF MONEY
7 INVOLVED HERE, EVEN FOR A LARGE CORPORATION.
8 THE CLOSENESS OF THE CASE, CLOSENESS OF THE -- THE CASE WAS CLOSE ON SEVERAL ISSUES. INFRINGEMENT WASN'T A
10 CLOSE CALL PARTICULARLY IN THE COURT'S VIEW, BUT ANTICIPATION
11 AND OBVIOUSNESS WERE CLOSE. WILLFULNESS FELL SOMEWHERE IN
12 BETWEEN. THIS FACTOR DOESN'T STRONGLY SUPPORT AN ENHANCEMENT
13 OR A MAJOR ENHANCEMENT. THE DURATION OF THE DEFENDANT'S
14 MISCONDUCT, IT'S UNCONTESTED DIRECTV HAS BEEN USING THE METHODS
15 SINCE THE PATENT WAS ISSUED. BUT WHAT'S MORE IMPORTANT THERE'S
16 NO EVIDENCE OF ANY ATTEMPT TO CHANGE AFTER GETTING THE LETTER
17 IN 2004 OR OF ANY ATTEMPT TO DO A REAL RISK ANALYSIS ON AN
18 INFRINGEMENT CLAIM OR COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF THE ALTERNATIVE
19 CONTINUING. THOSE WERE JUST WENT ON BUSINESS AS USUAL. NOW,
20 MR. CROOK DID SOME THINGS, BUT NOTHING -- NO DISCUSSION OF
21 MANAGEMENT GETTING TOGETHER AND AGAIN DOING A REAL SOLID
22 ANALYSIS OF WHAT WAS GOING ON. SO THIS FACTOR DOES SUPPORT
23 SOME ENHANCEMENT. THE REMEDIAL ACTION BY THE DEFENDANT, AFTER
24 THE 2004 LETTER THERE WAS NONE. SO, THIS FACTOR WOULD SUPPORT
25 ENHANCEMENT.
Welcome powerpole, sure dont mind adding you as moderator as well, been into fnsr since sept '05 or so myself.. but only since january with a bigger position
quite some knowledgable posters on yahoo been run off there by a fierce bashing team, some communicate by email still, set this up as alternative, some did not want to bother, only mail with two or three there at times.
Definately welcome and bring some posters for sure if knowledgable, allways good to have feedback on strong potential stocks like finisar.
The sector is looking very good for the next 2-3 years minimum.(as investment depends if the rise will go gradual as well if it runs too much it might be a shorter investment play)
CSCO's latest outlook has been very encouraging for FNSR's outlook to come.
FNSR still stands out with their own vertical production integration so they should be able to benefit the most by any production constraints by their competitors.
Also still see some form of settlemt coming over their IP porto. Agilent most likley has been settled seeing their latest 10-k. Directv/echostar etc are still very nice to go after though.
With regards,
Robin
The shorts basically took it down from 5$ to about 3.3$ level
at that time there were about 27 million shorts
the drop from 3.3$ to the bounce on 2.5$ was artificial and allmost 99% sure short selling induced... First the DTV news was capped to allmost NO rise at all.. and a few days later:
Volume high on no news and the drop below 3$
18-Jul-06 3.04 3.06 2.48 2.68 51,097,400 2.68
17-Jul-06 3.10 3.17 2.98 3.00 8,292,000 3.00
It is very likly that short shares were in between 35-40 million at that time if not more
The current short position per august 10th seems to confirm that with currently 31 million shares short there allready has been some covering with the bounce back from 2.50 to 3$+ level
OF those still short now there are some 17 million allmost sure to ahve shorted above 4.50$, so those will only have incentive to cover if proce goes back to 4$
the other 14 million are likley to have been shorted at a much lower level and likely coincide with the relentless bashing in past weeks on yahoo board amongst others
---------------------
As to why.. the earlier short action from 5$ was normal at the new year high of the stock... more recent increase is more like due to as someone else phrased it:
"was more a bet against the ecconomy, FED, sentiment etc then a bet against FNSR. 3 days to cover now..nice encouraging thought"
What story follow up?
Ie.. any link where its announced?
exposure is allways good, but indeed mainstream articles would be better
None yet, most knowledgable through email or yahoo still
communicate with most there as well
summary still valid though
Someone asked me about merrimack
anyone have the cut/paste summary of their upcoming research and gtcb deal with them handy?
(heh..looking for a timesaver, dont have it copy/paste handy myself)
Definately a possible catalyst in september
Says it all right in the BMO report
"Tercica gave enrollment updates on two ongoing Increlex trials that we believe will be
important in capturing market share from Insmed’s iPlex. MS-308"
saving their skin
BLA timeline
COuld someone give me an overview of possible FDA timelines with regards to the BLA filing..
if clinical portion is entered end of month, and production or cmc part en of year.. than when can we expected the 6 month time to start for priority application?
And will dndn we told about any positive opinions on the clinical data before the cmc is filed?
COuld someone take the time to enlighten me a bit there..
Would love to hear some details on the US technicalities there in such rolling submissions
http://www.ateliersdegiens.org/upload/conferencesG19/Roland.pdf
Coinstarz: those pdfs might be something for the mailing list?
otherwise i'd love to relay my personal addy
the lawyer opinion was in the report drbio pasted i think the last time, matthew was so kind to confirm it for me..
but a scan works allways better
So would love to have those as well
Thanks drbio for the update, not sure where you get them
but since i had the last one confirmed i am happy to read them
thanks
My picks for 2006/2007
Insm by far,
Fnsr,
gtcb
dndn (no position yet, huge short position)
4. $17.5M remains on GTC’s shelf registration. However, CFO Jack Green stated on today’s CC that cash usage during 2007 is expected to be similar to cash usage in 2006, and hence GTC believes there is ample cash to last into 2008
thats the biggest positive conclusion that i drew as well when reading the filing this morning
Due to prior art they do not have the eu paten yes, that is info that you should know
they have other patents, but those are of little consequence
"Genentech’s corresponding European patent application are not patentable under European patent law in view of public disclosures made before the application was filed.
"
should have confirmed what you allready knew
Some insitutionals allready reported june 30th holdings
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?m...
ol=FNSR&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol =&symbol=&FormType=Institu
tional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=FNSR
-Bennet Lawrance added 9 million shares!
12.5 million shares now, reported for june 30th, an increase of 381% for them
- Penn capital added 300k, plus 8%
-Artemis advisors added 400k, plus 15%
-Emeral mutual fund added 600k, total 900k now
-geode capital management increased 100% to 686k
-jetstream capital , new position 400k
etc etc
And some have not reported yet!
WSJ article, july 24th 2006 Fiber optics
http://articles.news.aol.com/business/_a/beyond-cable-beyond-dsl/20060724095309990010?cid=1712
Welcome serious investors
hope to see some more normal discussion with a few sane heads again!
OT: dew : New board ?
Dew, have some follow investors following a few other stock as well, yahoo getting killed by bashers in the worst way since the new setuyo there...
can you tell me how we could apply for a board here?
think one or two qualify as moderator for sure
drbio thanks for the 3rd lazard update, did not get it myself
are you able to scan them in the future as well?
would love to get those and not need an email confirmation than
** Lazard opinion on trial confirmed **
drbio earlier posted this information, which i held to be true..
unlike the earlier msges, no scans were available yet..
so i took the time to email lazard, got a reply within a day this weekend!!
Indeed confirmed how they feel about the trial:
This is the one worded reply i got, very very nice of him to answer!
-----------------------------------------------------------
Confirmed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "**********************8*]
Sent: 07/23/2006 12:28 PM
To: Matthew Osborne
Subject: INSM investor: report confirmation?
Dear Sir,
Sorry to bother you,i am not sure if this is the right channel to get confirmation,
But if you could be so kind to give a short clarification that would be great.
I am a private investor in insmed since 2005 and intend it to be a relative longterm investment.
I am aware of your earlier investment reports on insmed, botht the one from june 2nd, as well as the survey update on
june 25th.
Those were in line with my own dd and relative experience in the field.
There seems to be a rumour about another report on the issue, specifically mentioning the recent markman hearing
Part of it would be:
"for Insmed where the company is found liable for infringement of one
or more"valid claims in November but would be required to pay only a modest
(5%-10%)royalty to Tercica. As per our attorneys, issuance of a permanent
injunction is rare in the drug industry, especially for an FDA-approved (and
improved)"
COuld you indeed confirm that this indeed the prhasing in the update you gave there (the entire text is a bit too
much to copy/paste here)?
Thank you in advance for the time reading this email,
With regards,
(*********)
(******)
------------------------------------------------------------
The earlier report by drbio is confirmed by that:
Posted by: drbio45
In reply to: None Date:7/13/2006 6:37:15 PM
Post #of 2605
INSM: Recent weakness due to pending jury trial creates an entry point;
BUY
This is from Lazard and I am not sure if this was previously posted
We see the patent overhang beginning to lift based on a worst-case scenario for Insmed where the company is found
liable for infringement of one or morevalid claims in November but would be required to pay only a
modest(5%-10%)royalty to Tercica. As per our attorneys, issuance of a permanent injunction
is rare in the drug industry, especially for an FDA-approved (and improved)drug, leaving Insmed solvent as a viable
commercial entity capable of capturing a greater percentage of the severe primary IGF-1 deficiency
market, while at the same time pursuing additional indications for Iplex.
Therefore,
we view the stock's recent weakness due to the court's Order as an
overreaction and not reflective of the most likely outcome from the November jury trial.
Our patent attorney, who reviewed the court's recent Order, views Insmed's arguments as having strong legal merit but
warns that these arguments are difficult to demonstrate convincingly in front of a jury,
particularly when Tercica can wave the "gold seal and blue ribbon" of its patent at
the jury.
According to our legal counsel, swaying juror opinion will be crucial for the '414 patent; Insmed faces less of a
challenge with the '151 and '287 patent.
Catalysts: Insmed could prevail outright at the jury trial in November.
Meanwhile, the commercial launch of Iplex is off to a respectable start, considering Increlex's 4-month head start
and we expect data from additional indications for Iplex over the next 6-12 months to expand the drug's potential
beyond short stature.
Risks include a slower-than-expected launch of Iplex and/or a permanent injunction.
Maintain BUY and $4 target. Our 12-month price target derives from a multipleof 6 times projected 2008 iPlex sales of
$119M, discounted two years at 25% and including fully diluted shares of 120 million.
That was a sloppy text, rushed it a bit.
I am quite sure the point i try to make is clear though
enjoy
You may or may not like it
but the company chose for the most secure way to ensure their positive development, dilution maybe could have been at a higher level
Newberry mentioned the indifference of most us investors to the EU pictur, no matter how grounbraking the science, and i think they expected only marginally better conditions without FDA approval so dar
on the phone with newberry i casted the same doubts some here had, although i could and can see the company's point of view by taking financing now..
this will enable them to rule out any risks and truly capture the momentum (exact word used by newberry "take advantage of the momentum and not loose two or three months securing financing)of an approval in an upscaling of research and their activities (those were earlier tuned down a bit to save money for a possible wait out to the fda ruling after the initial negative CHMP ruling)
so maybe they could have gotton 1.60 or 1.80
they definately did not think to get 2$+ on short notice as an offering for such an ammount of shares
1.46 is not the best of deals,. but looking from those investing in gtcb...some doubts still there, no matter how rubberstampy they are, they are still US investors with most feel with US procedures...and they still took a fairly significant holding in the company... at diluted value of 1.46
So this still gives opportunities even if you do not like the dilution to make extra money on it, or compensate for the 1.60-1.80 offering one would have hoped for...
1.20 is dirt cheap if you are convinced the euwill approve market authorisation.. but they do not expect magical price per share numbers until the fda approval it seems..
they expect the bigger US audience to take notice by than..
however considering the last time before the negative ruling that even the BBC had an item on it makes me not so sure news wont get taken up big in the US as well
(regardless definately see a conservative2-3$ range with eu approval, i do not see people selling than with most risk gone..with fda coming in 2007 as well)
thanks dew i concur 100% there
i did not ask that, i just asked if gtcb initiated this dilution and he said they were approached and deal was brokered fairly recent even
(maybe after the price was walked down?)
i can see why offer was too good to pass up... solid investment firm and it does give them continuity and the cash to start burning cash on buildout and research
(which they will do, he spoke of capturing the momentum)
Assumption confirmed by newberry
Spoke with him for 20minutes today, interrrupted his familily time so the guy is dedicated for sure..
basically he said that its allways bad to dilute, never a good time... they were approached with an offer, not other way around..
and now plenty cash to reach far into 2007..making sure they do not have to cut back on research when the momentum goes their way
spoke about more things, but wanted to tell this anyway here and now
Dilution done because of continuity
The question is raised plenty times now,
The answer as to why the dilution now is quite simple..
GTCB expects an EU approval for sure, however they are not betting the farm on it... earlier emissions showed they go for continuity first...and only than count in any possible pisitive extras..
earlier they had cash to last them till mid 2007 or so...
well, should for whatever reason the eu approval face problems than that would leave them in a very weak position to continue and complete the FDA application..
They definately choose for safety, so regardless of the eu outcome they will survive all the way through the end of the FDA application process
I reacted to your post, but you just wanted an opinion on it,
than after that i think you misunderstood me..
and i misunderstood you.. the reply to that yahoo msg is in my reply..
bullshit is what it is..and nice try at backdoor bashing
ps added some gtcb today and fnsr yesterday
not when a patent has been denied in the EU due to prior art
get your facts straight
Owh..i am european btw
patents go per region mostly..and no way US patent will have ANY affect on iplex with regards to european sales at all
And the thing you mention to is when you file a patent in the US...and someone copies it and tries to patent it in the EU
if you appeal than very likley the US patent has a very good chance of prevailing
but very very different scenario than the current one
But nice try of the yhoo board guy, twisted and deceiving, but nice try.
not when a patent has been denied in the EU due to prior art
get your facts straight
NO PATENT IN EUROPE DUE TO PRIOR ART
sigh...why are we discussing this than?
its about the eu market...some people need to get their facts straight
one big advantage for ipsen is trca;s unique marketing situation, perfect fit for their own products, so this is a good cost savings..and a lot better deal than ipsen could have gotten with a big pharma..
also iplex might get a large part of the market, i think if trca does not go broke there will be a niche market in the niche market itself for increlex..so they;ll make some money..
and for them its relatively cheap pushing increlex as well since they have the setup in europa that trca lack
Ditto added more...missed bottom 1,25 today due to work
so added some @ 1,27
will shop more tomorrow
Nope, trca is working on label expansion...but only for less severe forms...aobut 18k patients..i rekcon they add those in the equasion
Still marginally than out of 6K (severe)+18k(less severe) total of 24k patients
and do not forget that trca bring a marketing team exactly in place at the right spot for them for the US market..
so the net investment is 68mln..
discounted by not having to put up their own specific sales team there..so overall net investment is even smaller..
they definately will make a profit on that, evne if increlex sales are a small portion of the market, will still generatesome revenue
"Ipsen invests maximum $123.6MM but gets in return max. $55MM from TRCA = a net investment of $68.6MM in TRCA. Apart from mutual income from sales. So Ipsen pays only for 400 guaranteed patients while being able to sell Increlex worldwide where approved. This brings TRCA a max of 55% of $28000/year = $13.5K/patient/year."
Did you guys note the sales update in the pr?
please comment on it, curious if people see it the same
"; and (b) for 2006, Tercica expects Increlex(TM) revenues of approximately $1 million and cash burn, excluding expenses related to this transaction, "
i feel that is very positive
Sell volume drying up
volume is not high for a 100mln stock
and some who want a bargain are still lurking, some movement north will trigger them..
not sure when..but wont be more than 2 weeks now
august nearing
Off topic: TA for fnsr
Any TA expert here willing to give its opinion there?
heavily under work by shorts, outlook very good for short term
plenty upgrades with 6$ targets..
Added last friday
also 17mln shorts, no increase in june so stabilising, think they'll try a crash though
seems 3$held today but no bounce off it yet..
3-3.30 seems to be the trading range for now
Any opinions on support/resistance?
PS sitting tightly on my accumulated pile of insmed for sure
Stoplosses on such small cap?
check gtcb for gods sake..twice rambled down on no news from 1,70..to 1,20.. to bounce back to 1,60..
gtcb even had to issue a pr that there was no news
than waiting a few weeks on news, which was bad at that moment...
but that was all about stealing stoplosses
On microcap/smallcap companies..micromanage them and manually pull the sell order if you feel it's bewlo your treshold..
A lot less chance to get suckered out before any news event that way
Any TA experts here? 1.20 support level
I See bottom forming here..
bought some more today avg 1,23
could retest low, but more likley to bounce on 1,20 support
any views there?