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I feel like some of the small selling could be people who bought at .70 Or below getting impatient and possibly expecting a dip. I have thought of dumping 25k shares, just in case it dips, but I don’t have a lot of time to watch the market and catch the dip that may not happen.
45MM shares is a lot, but last year they had put in a form 1A to sell up to 95MM at .20 and cancelled that form later. That would have gotten them $5MM if they sold them. I am glad they waited and instead gave shares less than half for 3x the immediate value in yearly revenue.
That was only a few months ago. All the work we did as shareholders to buy and spread the word helped them cancel those shares.
We made a big difference in my opinion.
Also since they got shares and not cash they are invested in making those shares go up in value too. They want $5 per share as much as we do and will keep pushing for growth by acquisitions and expanding markets.
Lots of stuff coming!
Exciting times.
Haha. Patience is hard. I get obsessed with clicking “get detailed quote” to see how the bid/ask varies from minute to minute. It is completely distracting and unnecessary. I’m at a spot where I can’t buy more even if it drops... and I’m not selling, so why can’t I stop watching it every day?
Sorry was a rough day at work and I was hyper. Thanks for the reminder to have manners.
Sorry, did not mean to be rude. Thank you for adding me. Chill would be a good dad!
Mercutos, put me on the Nasdaq board. I have enough shares now that I can hold enough for that uplisting.
We’re not even a full 3 months from the .10 price. The stock has zoomed nicely a few times. Do we remember the dip to .16 from .31 and there was another off the .71 area down to what??? I don’t remember all of them. We only bought at those prices with 20MM revenue projected to grow to 38MM in 12-18 months....
Today after some big deals closing we can all see the potential to acquire more companies, grow revenue even more and expand nationwide faster. We were looking at 4-6 cities before and within 3 months we’re looking at 4-6 states with multiple cities each... and growing.
Revenue growth has not even posted from the 20MM range and could double within a quarter. 5MM quarterly to 10MM quarterly and growing to 20MM per quarter and 25MM per quarter over the next 4 quarters. If they achieve that, ever 3 months the share price will double. Until we’re over $3 and then we’ll look at the state of things, the market and the new companies joining.
$1 now and $2 before summer ends. $2 solid meaning it won’t go back down. It should spike to $3 at least once in the next 6 months.
It’s anyone’s guess. I expect a lot of bouncing between $1 and $2 based on the wind blowing. Hahahahaha.....
If everyone sees good reports of revenue growth, more will come. They will start believing.
In the commentary Massey says, "I'm very confident that by early summer we will have a run-rate of over $100 million."
That means we should see a good boost in Q1 and by end of Q2 (08/30/2021) we’ll see how close he is. That would be 25MM per quarter if they hit that run rate by “summer” even hitting 15MM for Q2 would blow the roof off the price if it is close to this price today.
60MM revenue run rate and growing so people could see them getting close to 100MM run rate, will move this over $3... just my opinion. It could be an exciting year.
Thanks chill. Where do you look for futures to see they are green? URL?
$sirc has a bright green future. Hopefully we’ll see a good recovery, and eventually we’ll see more good news coming.
Maybe they want to group good news together and want to get a couple more LOI signed from their pipeline.
For those new to the board, we focus on company review, details about recent communications with the company, analysis of the reports that come out, projections of growth in revenue and business opportunities, chart analysis, industry news.
We try to keep the one-liner rah-rah statements to a minimum as those are better on Twitter with relevant hashtags. This board is for investors to share their commitment to the company, based on due diligence, research, and following business announcements.
Pump on ST or Twitter, but bring real information and posts here when possible.
This board has become known as a good source of research on this company, the brands and the products they install.
Let’s keep that focus when possible.
Don’t sell on the bottom of a downturn. If you’re going to sell on the way down, do it early unless you see signs of it going out of business. This is a fundamental business sector which is always active. Homes need new roofing regularly. In our subdivision there have been at least 50 roofs replaced this year. The subdivision is just the right age, and once a few people get a roof and if the job is done well, people refer others. Even without solar and EV growing a national brand roofing company is good, and add to that all the extras, and you have a good potential for years of growth. If they protect the shareholders and hopefully they are also shareholders, it will keep growing. Being bought is good because you go public and don’t have the hassle of doing that alone.
With the solar roofs and battery storage and EV which is coming quickly, they have a great plan.
This is one that you buy and hold for a long time. The only reason I sold some is my target price was originally $0.36 from .045 average, and when it skyrocketed past that I was more than happy to sell on the way up...
Now that we hit $3 and it is reasonable to expect this company to grow substantially in the next 5 years, I had to buy more on the dip. Whatever it does in the short term won’t matter much. I have another good average price of $1.02 for the eventuality of this hitting $5 - $10 and if I can hold long enough potentially more. But I’m a bit older so 10 years is just about all the time I have to wait before retirement.
This could hit $5 in 3 years or sooner... but until it does watching it roller-coaster is not easy.
Thought exercise.
Let’s talk multipliers and PE for a moment. Company value at times is judged by PE when there are earnings. A conservative PE is 20 (more or less) revenue to earnings vary based on profits and expenses.
Can anyone tell me what a typical revenue to earnings ratio is and why?
Let’s say a company has earnings of $0.05 per share, what factors normally influence if they get to 20PE or a 40PE.
Based on those factors, for companies who do not yet have earnings we can calculate some of the factors that influence market cap to revenue ratios and what values are considered conservative and which are aggressive...
Hey Chill, I think you might know that I comment on my actions, both good and bad. I started selling at .31 and I sold at .75 as well, in fact, by the time it hit $2.50 I had less than 100k shares if I remember. If I held all shares to the $3 market I would have nearly double what I have today... so hopefully people understand that I am only sharing my perspective after doing this for 4 years - trading penny stocks and being a relatively short-term investor...
This is one of the few that I have bought and plan to hold for likely 5 years because I see the potential.
People who are new to pennies and chase a run do need to be advised from those of us who have been there and made those decisions, and they need to understand what to look for to see if there is a lot more headroom, or if it is getting close to popping.
It is always okay if you look for a quick buck to sell into strength on the way up... If you think it has value for 10 years, like one of my friends, he buys what he believes in, and he checks his account about once a month. He does not watch anything daily. He just does his job, and every month or so checks, and maybe once a year or twice a year decides how to move funds around.
If you believe in this company as most of us here do, unless you are buying the dips... and selling the spikes as a form of amusement, as I am, it is best to not watch the short-term.
I actually enjoy playing the market and I have lost a LOT of money doing it wrong, and one day, I might just stop doing it this way, but as an investor, penny stocks are super high risk and high reward and you should only put in what you can seriously afford to lose.
Everyone who does not already know this needs to at least be aware of just how sideways an investment can go.
Even my buying today and yesterday and the day before is risky and a bit against my better judgement, but I have a little bit of this belief like all the long-term holders that it will be fine... even though I know short-term I can get my pants kicked by the market.
I do apologize if I offend anyone with my posts. I am not trying to show off. I am just happy I have been able to buy more after seeing the cornerstone acquisition. that has changed my long-term view of this stock tremendously. You all may have been able to see it from the beginning... I got glimpses... but I am hopeful now that it can come in 3 years not 10 years to see $5 or $10....
And can you imagine if it can see $3 in 2 years... from $0.75 that is a 400% increase in 2 years... that is notable. even though that is 0% increase from the peak... the 2 years after that, anyone who bought at that peak will be rewarded too...
none of this is easy. and all of it is risky.
GLTA - and I always only post my opinions.
The problem is... I am an addict... I bought 5k more at .765
I think someone was trying to fill that .75 gap... and I just wonder if they filled it enough to let it fly?
Very curious to see if this can turn at least back to $1 now for the short-term...
I have to stop watching, but I am buying dips. My bid at .760 has not filled yet. we'll see. I also bought more at .79...
Let's see... I am up to 115k shares now... trying to pull some of the shares away so that shorts need to cover higher if that is possible. At some point, someone will bigger pockets will help kick them in the pants :) haha or so I hope.
There was a link to some of his posts on ST if I recall. I am not sure but someone on this board posted the link to his conversations. I distinctly remember him posting that because he said "monthly" and I believe him because I know his next milestone was to be at 100M for his own company at some point. He wants to grow and make a mark in this industry. He is an amazing asset to this company.
If I can dig back through the links or if someone can link to his account in ST, I could probably find it - it was a reply to maybe a post by Chill - I don't have it handy just yet...
Whew! Finally back up over 100k shares. This has been a harsh ride for many of you I know. And I am not trying to make anyone feel bad with my posts.
This stock is a really good buy, and when I bought my first shares at .23 and it dipped to .02 and then got a CVEM put on it I was pretty distressed... as I could not buy until CVEM was removed.
At least these dips are actionable if you have the guts to put more in.
It's scary I know, but .85 per share... is less than $120MM market cap with potential of 60MM revenue in like 12 months... even it were to stay right here for 1 year, the year after that would see another 400% run.
If you have no $$ to add now, you can hope it to stay low until you can add... or hope for it to pull out sooner than later... It might go down more... or it might recover... who knows.
I know someone is wanting to buy a lot of shares and is shaking the trees before uplist and before institutions start buying and holding...
This will be okay long-term (and it does not have to be that long). I bought at .23 back in 2018 if I remember... and it took 2 years to pull out of the slump.
This will not take two full years if they execute their plan, and take care of shareholders. If they are forced to raise funds with shares, the lower share price will suck for that.
Time will tell. Keep watching the numbers and make good decisions. I would not sell on these lows... if you think it will go up, why sell, if you think it will go down, try to find a way to buy more at whatever you think the bottom will be.
The bottom, when it is hit, will not last long....
buying and watching... Missed the damn big dip... because I was typing my long message at the time. haha.
Anyway, .90 is good...
Part of me wants to see a dip, only for personal gains... the other part of me wants to see it go up to $1.50 to give some relieve for all the stress people feel when it does down.
Remember, It shot way up very quickly, and I was hoping it would be more like a constant 3% per day or week ramp until they did more acquisitions and we could see solid revenue growth exceeding expectations - I am glad it shot up, but with penny stocks with low floats it is very easy in many ways to have a price go skyrocketing before it is ready, which means it often cools off. you must always remember to check financials and see if it makes sense to buy on a run up... sometimes it is better to buy small amounts and get less and either sell on spikes and rebuy on dips... but it is a very tricky game.
I have to keep stressing a point that many of you tend to brush aside because of all the other solar stocks that have very high multiples against revenue - it is not the same as amazon which was growing revenue quickly even though they were not showing net income. Same as TSLA - there are darling stocks that get a lot of hype and followers because eventually they do go up because the money comes...
And this one is the same.. eventually the money will come, but any stock I have ever witnessed which went up quickly 4500% in 1 month or less always came back down because there is not enough time to see revenue growth, business acumen of the leaders, etc.
Sometimes ramps for stocks may go up during a year phase and increase 100% or 200% and THAT is normally a big deal.
When this stock surges again, do not get caught in the trap thinking it will continue to go up 10x more in a short window. It is not practical and you will be labeled pumper for good reason - your head is not screwed on straight if you believe 4000% increases in 1 year are normal - they are not. ESPECIALLY if revenue is not increasing 200% per quarter or something insane.
You have to compare the growth projections in a reasonable fashion and wait for reports to confirm several things: 1 real revenue, Real Debt, Stock Usage, and Warrants or other convertible debt that can dilute shares, and you MUST take those numbers into account when figuring market cap and relative stock value versus company value.
If a company is making 100MM per year, and is growing at 50% per year, what is their revenue in 10 years... If the market cap is higher than that value... there is a problem that will be corrected at some point within the next 5 years. (could be days, weeks, months, or years) - you do not know. If they are projecting 100% growth and they come in at 50% growth, they will get dinged. If they are projecting 50% growth and they come in at 100% growth consistently (meaning you need TIME to see that) they will get a deserved boost.
If a company has 100,000 customers and customers are growing 500% per year, that is a big deal... and you can start to graph potential revenue changes over time, but you need to see real data to make business projections and company value statements. You cannot ignore these simple basic rules of investing and company valuation. IT does not MATTER that another company is running super hot... it will not always unless it gets the revenue they project... and lots of customer because they are the hottest S@## on the planet.
The reason I LIKE the cornerstone acquisition is precisely because I believe it will increase their growth rate. If we were on the previous growth rate - 20MM this year, 40MM next year, and 80MM the year after that... the price of $1.25 is about the highest I would expect for 24 months. (with spikes to $2 or $2.50 that would correct).
NOW... what I see is potential for revenue to hit 20MM in this report or close to it... 60-80MM in 12 months and $150MM in 24 months... so that is a very different thing.. but it will require them to make good deals, not get heavy into debt, and not dilute shares extremely but use other methods to attract the companies that want to join them - like the ability for them to expand their company more quickly because of adding customer base, having sales assistance nationally, etc...
At $150MM revenue... it will take a lot of work and growth, but I believe we could see that... and at $150MM revenue whenever they get there, that is 600MM market cap easily - NOT 3 Billion... so when people say oh the valuation will be 20X revenue - they are smoking dope if they think that happens and sustains for years. Just because they hit $150MM quickly does not mean that the next 150MM will come as quickly. The growth will slow in percentage the bigger they get. They will have growing pains, that is natural.
Everyone must start being more realistic in what they want to target as price and back it with their expectations. If they exceed expectations and your targets are reasonable, the you likely will be right. But if they have to grow fast to meet your expectation and they grow slower, then the ramp will be slower or it will hit a correction.
I'm not wrong about all this.
You can doubt it, but unless you bring real value numbers to show why your price guess is reasonable you can just talk to the wall.
:)
GLTA - I believe they have potential but only real numbers will show if they will make it. Give this 6 months to see where it goes, how fast they grow, and how much they dilute to figure out what your timeline looks like to reach $3, $5, $10, etc. I believe I can come closer than most anyone in detailing the long-term price potential based on business value using a 2-4x multiple, and I know there will be spikes, but there will be corrections based on real growth, real revenue, real debt, and real dilution. And It will change based on their business.
The reason I say this is that I have been burned believing in companies that just did not execute their plan. They talked big and did not deliver. Over promise and under deliver is a bad sign, and requires fundamental changes to restore confidence.
It is okay to miss by a few percentage points, but stating 5M revenue and it comes in at 4.3MM is a big deal. It does not mean selling all shares, but it means a huge spike is not warranted in the short-term.
Hunter claiming they could "easily" have 8MM per month by end of calendar year 2021 is a big claim - I believe him, but if they do not execute and deliver that growth chart... investors will roast them and shorts will eat the stock...
Do not doubt how much clear projections matter to investors, and meeting or exceeding expectations matter. If someone says they are on a 24MM run rate... that means 2M per month, and 6MM per quarter. If future quarters come in at $4MM and $5MM - then you feel lied to, and that is never good.
So, watch their claims and see what their reports show. If they do not exceed projections, any spike in price will be hype and it will correct.
I’m thinking they will likely announce another LOI or two in the next three weeks. Cornerstone will help them have a pipeline of companies who want to join. I’m eager to see some details in the various reports. I’m eager to see 1st quarter results. That’ll be 4 months away, but they are out working their butts off and we are watching stock tickers and some feel panicked. Price will take care of itself over time. They have potential to be $5 within a few years max. And no one on this board has bought over $3.00 so keep the faith. Average down on dips when you can. Trade it back and forth if you like that, but best to not look and find another stock that is undervalued and turn 1000 into $10,000 there. And then find another one. And as sirc swings up past your average price you’ll have some relief.
I’m looking for new tickers when I have time to research. If I watch this too much I get too distracted.
We all know this will go back up. My average price is $1.11 now as I was buying more at 1.31 and 1.45. Just because I took some profits does not mean my current $100k investment is not being risked. I’m not selling if it goes down more. Wherever the bottom is I hope to buy 5000 at that price too.
I totally believe my average of 1.11 we be awesome in 2 years.
I keep buying and it goes down some more... I’ll sell 10k so it goes back up. Hahaha. Kidding. I’m holding 50k in cash for more buys. If it does a crazy negative drop, I’ll have to buy. I’m back up to 90,000 shares.
Mercutos, you summarize it well. Trying to pin one multiple to any stock is only a guess and gauge for your own purposes. It’s complicated.
I’m just trying to reply to questions.
It depends on the terms of the deal related to common share dilution, and potential growth the acquisition brings in comparison and how long the market believes it will take for company B to contribute to sales and revenue of company A. So let’s look at cornerstone. They grew to 15 million in three years. The leader of the company is pretty keen. So let’s use some examples. Let’s say they wanted to buy that revenue generator for $15MM in cash and they did not have cash. They would have to sell something to raise cash. But what it they said, our share price is worth $2 so we’ll buy you for 7.5MM common shares. And the market is like.... they sold for $2 per share. That’s worth a chunk... but you might get the point. Read the fine print of the quarterly report for terms. If the new company said. We want 30MM shares because you should pay for two years of revenue.
Those are different terms. If the market thinks it was a great deal the price will likely go up. If they think is was too lax the price would likely go
Rightstuff, in a frenzy even tulips can be outrageously priced. And people buy pet rocks. And whale vomit just sold for $2M to the perfume industry....
A market is what people will pay. So why won’t people pay a 5x revenue multiple on The Home Depot?
Why did their price drop so low back in the 80s?
Companies who make low revenue without numbers showing insane growth is only speculation. And people speculate on all kinds of things and when they lose interest, it pops.
If there is value that is typically seen, you have confidence if the execution exceeds the plans and if growth is faster than expected.
Value happens when people buy a share of a company when they believe another bigger company will buy all shares for more because of the value the company has. Speculation is betting that a company will become valuable, not that they are valuable. You can compare speculation very easily as it is based on belief, not reality.
If a company has a PE ratio of 10 or 20 that is considered normal. If a company has a PE of 100 someone expects earnings to grow a LOT quickly. Price to earnings is one measure. Book value is another. And revenue is another. Concrete value. Anything else is expected a future value. Speculation on potential value.
It’s great to speculate. Penny stock speculation is why I lost $20,000 expecting value, and not believing the bad news or even understanding what bad news would look like.
If you want to roll the dice and speculate on valuations multiple years down the road with no evidence it is fine. I am speculating on SIRC for revenue growth based on acquisitions. That’s not current value. That’s future value and the future outlook can change in a blink of an eye.
Lost contracts, increased competition, changes to laws. And lack of execution. When new to penny stocks you must learn value and speculation and watch for signs. Also you must learn typically what big investors consider a good value so they buy verses an overbought stock which they sell.
Also you should learn how big a run normally gets before people bail out and take profits.
Sirc was a deal at .5 multiple market cap to revenue. With a likely 400% increase potential, so market cap of 80MM would be close to max of my expectations... but it ran much hotter and higher.... but once it reaches that height it takes 4 years for revenue to catch up to expectations of most investors.
I don’t care that some companies have a 10x multiple. If they do not grow fast, it will not sustain. People are willing to invest in 2-4 years if they believe they will get a great return.
But if it takes 4 years to reach break even how long before it is worth more than you buy it for? And why not buy a better value somewhere else?
There is not right answer. It is a bell curve and averages. Why it Verizon a higher PE ratio than AT&T if you research it and find the answers you will start to see what are the real factors that make stocks move. Also why is LUMN so low of a multiple? Research the financial statements and see what people think about company performance and growth.
If a company makes 0 but could make 1B with one contract it will have a very high multiple when people believe they can do it.
Belief is partially based on history and part on vision, leadership, and business plan and market opportunities. And the counter to that is competing companies who can do it better.
Just some thoughts. You have to determine your own trading and investment style, beliefs, and over time learn from good and bad.
I’ve traded probably 20-30 ticker symbols over the years. And I learned by bad things happening and good things happening, and it had given me enough to have opinions... not truth.
All we all have are opinions and the market laughs at us often.
There are always some companies who get the attention and everyone thinks they will do amazing things... like Amazon. But when you compare to apple, how long before Apple made their run and why? Were they seen as stock market darlings or the underdog?
How about tsla today? Is the price justified by revenue or growth? Not really? But damn musk has something people want to be part of.
SIRC can very likely grow into an amazing national brand making 1Billion in revenue per year in 7 years. Yes, that IS possible. And people may not see that. Why sell early? Because. Why sell apple at $4 back in the day. There are investors of all types. This is what makes anything in the stock market risky. Plus many traders use computers to do the trading. It’s not always humans that we trade with.
So there are patterns, expectations, fear, and hype and it rotates to different areas because every is trying to make the most they can in a short time. And the cycle is crazy.
There is no one answer to the question about why BLNK has the price multiple and others don’t. It does not have to make sense. Believing is not based on real stuck. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Why?
What is your average price?
For anyone who missed the big run, it’s okay. This is still a great investment at a good price now. However, short term price is unpredictable beyond best guessing on chart analysis and fundamentals.
Long-term a company who survives and grows will provide value for those who do dollar cost averaging over a period of time. This is why I buy some and wait. If there is a dip, yet I see added value in reports I may buy more. My caution is always that I have lost a lot by averaging down on the way down when big unexpected things happened. But but... but.., I will say that on 4 of my stocks where I was down over 90% I was able to exit with a profit 3 years later by watching the ticker and catching opportunity when the business turned around. You never really lose until you sell and stop looking for opportunities.
Take asck for instance. That one has me down $5000 and just did another reverse split. At one time I had almost 3 million shares. And now I have 2700 shares. And I have not sold any. I have not exited because having the shares on my account alerts me to changes and reminds me of the risks. They are still in business. It may be a scam, who knows. But if not a scam it has business potential. At some point I may try to recover my losses, or just hold them until I start seeing real revenue.
BBRW was another ticker, before they were sold. I was down 95% and started seeing life. I bought and exited with a profit.
Playing penny stocks and investing is challenging and anything can happen.
Don’t despair. Learn, research always, and see how to play and find your own methods that work.
Rightstuff, not quite what I meant. The amount of gains in a short time can happen with penny stocks. And they are sometimes called supernovas. This is my first and I’ve been actively buying penny stocks for 4 years. And this market has caused a lot of them lately. It is an abnormal time.
Remember, penny stocks are very high risk. You must keep your senses about what makes value in the market. If you’re playing the game, and riding hype, you’re not investing. You’re gambling. Which is okay if you want to guess the ups and downs and fickle market.
If you want to invest you have to know how to spot real value like we did when this was .03 a share. We are up 3500% since then. We spiked at 10,000% from .03 to $3... that is not normal in a 2 month period. That growth can normally take 10-20 years.
Don’t be fooled by this market.
Switch your mindset quickly or get ready for bad decisions on other stocks.
For the next 6 months we’ll get the information needed to make longer term projections. But we must switch gears to looking at this stock through a different lens.
What will likely happen...
They continue to acquire companies. The revenue from each company plays into total revenue and as long as they are making good deals on terms that are good for shareholders as some of them should become, without giving them so many shares they have no room to expand....
With the multiple companies they bought, the first quarter ending in May should show 10MM revenue for the quarter if I am following the numbers correctly... someone mentioned they should be near 58MM yearly run rate so I’m conservative. If they show that kind of growth we will still have a bumpy ride for a while. 4x40 = 160. That gets us 1.25 on the low end unless shares go up a lot.
I’m guessing 150MM shares and 160MM market cap would be about where we are today. I would start using 4x revenue as your low end for market cap to expect. And if it spikes to 10x realize what it means. Just because pumped stocks can hit 20x revenue or higher do not think that is normal. Those are spikes that adjust down until real numbers show fast growth potential with low dilution.
1.5 x revenue is a typical MC for a good investment with low yearly growth. Less than that for declining revenue. 2 is normal for companies who are growing. 4x is special cases like solar and CBD and fast growing companies and anything over that is cause for caution and longer term vision.
Those who hold long can stand the roller coaster as long as they don’t buy the hype or dips that are in a hype cycle. We are still 12 months from having historical revenue that justifies the current price and market cap. It is still a good two year investment but I should have waited before buying more at 1.45. And I should have known better. Even if we spike Monday. It does not last without news and details that allow us to make the fundamentals work.
Short term holders will get tired of waiting. We can hope for hype... but hype is not the same as value.
Don’t hype unless you’re selling. Just let the fundamentals speak as they come out.
Saying this will hit $20 in 12 months is just unrealistic for most of the scenarios that are based on value. It can hit $3 based on hype, enthusiasm and demand, but not based on the typical value an investor wants to see.
Take hype out and talk about things you see as valuable based on real info and base your thoughts on expectations and then see if they hit or miss expectations.
Start talking the long game.
What is the most likely value, how it plays out and why would real investors pick it. The picky investors, not pumpers.
Charts versus fundamentals. Both are a valid way to play stocks as there is momentum up or down with trends and I tip my hat to trip for all the chart analysis. As far as fundamentals, it is hard on penny stocks in the early phases. All companies need to be profitable or they go into debt in some fashion to keep going. If a company has sales but negative cash flow they have to raise money somewhere. Sometimes this is debt and sometimes equity (stock sales).
A stock price before net income can be based on revenue or based on market potential for revenue, but ultimately the price settles around demand and supply. If a lot of people want TSLA for instance and they believe the price will go higher like an Amazon they might pay 500 PE or 1000PE I think Tesla was at 5600 at one point. People believed that sales will grow a lot and they company will be worth something higher later.
If they have bad numbers, faulty cars, or litigation, price will drop.
How we find value with SIRC has a lot to do with fundamentals of sales, revenue growth, profits and cash flow and terms of the deals. If they buy a company making $15MM per year for $30MM worth of shares based on today’s price, it would be worse than at $2 per share from a dilution standpoint. Until we all see reports there will be nervousness until we see the plan coming together and revenue growing. As the price drops, there will be happy people who will become long-term investors, thus increasing demand.
What we hope for is execution that gives confidence so we can keep a 8x multiple on sales for market cap. Still unless they grow at 100% a year an 8x multiple is not normal. I know it all depends on the market. But people generally do not pay $8 for $1 in revenue as it takes 8 years with no growth for a company to make that much in revenue and even longer to make that in earnings. Think about why PE ratios are many times 20 or less as good investment. And what that means verses revenue.
I would like people to discuss the realities on how long before they reach 100MM revenues per year. And using typical market cap to price multiple which are reasonable for the growth rates or profits to see what is reasonable and why.
About the ramp... look at the Bitcoin ramp. Alternative investments kinda go hand in hand. It’s curious for sure. Likely a lot of people who made a lot of money in penny stocks play the game to pump and cash out.
Regarding shorts remember, OTC stocks have 1 day to cover. It’s not like the major exchanges where they can short day after day without covering. It’s risky to short when your cover period is 1 day. But short-term price is meaningless, and let them make a few bucks. When it is low enough they will go long on it just as quickly. With low volume it is likely someone with buy in and set a stop loss too close to the buy, and get stopped out causing more down pressure, and they cover near the bottom before everyone else sees the recovery.
If for some reason, it fills the .75 gap, I will most definitely have to buy more and maybe I should just put in my order on Monday good til cancelled to see if it ever fills. The question for me would be HOW MUCH to buy, and if I should wait that long. The $1.09 price is a pretty darn good price if you consider where this is very likely to be in 1 year. Who wouldn't want a 50% gain in 12 months or less. And everyone likes to get the cheapest price they can get. I completely was busy on Friday and could not put in any orders when it dipped to $1.06 and I was thinking... damn that is a nice dip price as well. But now, I am wonder if we will have a $0.99 sale this coming week.
Someone or some groups of people seem to really want this price to be cheaper, and I have a feeling they know what's coming this coming year, and they want to "encourage" people to sell, or somehow make people frustrated, cut their losses, etc, which I totally understand their desire to get cheap shares on something which will likely be an increase of 100% in a pretty short time relatively speaking.
I think for me, I will just buy small amounts at each level to average down if dips continue because I believe that it will completely turn around even if it takes 6 months to start having real investors become excited about this stock.
I mean, can you image WHEN they hit $100M run rate which is about 8MM per month, that as it grows and they make announcements and we get to see the details of the deals - we can hope they made good deals for shareholders and we can hope they became shareholders as well at a fair amount for what SIRC got for the shares... But all that comes out in the reports - and it will take 2 more reports after the year end report to fully get a sense of the business growth synergies.
It is exciting, and scary, just because anything can happen with a small company. Anything can happen with our economy in the country. Anything can happen with changing laws, etc.
I know what we expect, and if we get what we expect, they will be riding a 4-8x multiple with 100M revenue and growing in 12 months or there about.... which again would be a 400M market cap at the minimum, so is there any reason not to buy at $1.09 or 1.02 or 0.99 or any other price the people selling take it to?
At some point, we know that interest will come back, and other investors will start seeing the value, and they will start buying dips as well until there is a supply shortage of shares again. And if we see a supply shortage because the price stays low, and the growth of the company gets large, it will run quickly again.
How to play this stock for everyone will be different. For me and a few others who sold most of our shares over $1 and a lot over $2 anything at $1 looks so tempting that it is hard NOT to buy... but just like everything no one likes buying at $1 and then having it drop to $0.90... and that is why people wait when a stock is going down, and the more they wait the lower it goes until they believe it is so low that there is no way for it not to go up... that's around the level of when fundamentals make sense... For 20MM shares that is a market cap of about 80MM knowing it will grow to 80MM revenue sometime, and more than likely at that price I will get 200% return. But at a market cap of 200MM and revenue at 20MM the interest is just kinda low until time passes or the price drops into a reasonable range... this is why the price has been falling. At the peak supply increased as profits were taken. And demand dropped as the multiple increased to 20x...
For penny stocks, you have to always be aware of these numbers and you will surely miss runs, but you can build your expectations and not be surprised when the tide turns, both on the bottom and on the top.
Just my opinions from watching penny stocks and investing in them for the last 4 years. Losing some and winning some.
We know there is a high likelihood they will keep buying companies, but any fast growth can bring issues as well... so that is what you watch for next - what types of "issues" will they face... and how will they handle them.
This hit 400MM market cap near the peak. That was a 20x multiple on revenue of 20MM. We see it cooled off to 140MM market cap, which is still a higher multiple that what most investors like on the 20MM historical revenue.
Now, it is pretty clear to me that the revenue they will post quarterly may reach 20MM per quarter in 12 months with the acquisitions we know about, and could grow faster as they pull in more. That means this will quickly be undervalued again.
I understand what you mean. And totally believe they are legit. And over 6 months things may be crazy, but SEC filings will be the thing that matters next.
Think about revenue and market cap today, the same it was 3 months ago. Yearly revenue of about 20MM and typically a bottom of 4x multiple for a growth company, and 10x multiple for positive sentiment, industry and hype, etc. so market cap should be like this:
20MM revenue ==> 80-100MM market cap is typical.
40MM revenue ==> up to 240MM market cap. Depends on speed of growth.
We may see a 40MM run rate in 3-6 months
80MM revenue ==> 320MM-480MM market cap.
Since we’re after a big run, the revenue numbers have not caught up yet, and it will take months to show them. People are willing to buy at higher prices when they can buy and hold longer and if they don’t know if we’ll dip. But they save cash to buy dips when they come.
When we buy more at 1.45 like I did, it was to be an investment for when it hits $5,
To help calm some nerves and explain how can it be at this price... remember a month or two ago what was the price, market cap, and multiple... at one point not long ago we were at a 2x multiple. At $1 which was a big deal so much so that we had a board showing people committed to hold until it reach $1... one month is a very short time and it overshot current fundamentals in the published reports. They have not even published the yearly numbers and they are likely around 18MM to 22MM and the market cap is $138MM at $1 SP which is a 6x multiple, based on previous 12months of revenue. It will take 1 year from today for the fundamentals to justify a higher price. With an average 4x multiple. I know so many people think 50x multiple is normal but it is not. There are many companies with better fundamentals in the short term, so it is likely we will take a short term hit.
Any spooky market signals will cause people to dump higher multiple prices.
It is a gift to trade on future projections. And confidence will allow it to trade at that level for investors who see it. With the recent 2200% run and the taking profits, supply and demand has shifted... supply and demand drives price multiples. If there is no demand, there is no price momentum.
Each month that goes by, increasing revenues and reports that show details will bring confidence as well as demand. Uplist will bring more long-term investors.
If you look at current numbers we are overpriced based on historical filings, but that will be changed with every quarterly report to come out. And as people figure it out, if the prices are low, demand will increase and we could see another run.
The market is not sane and the market does not trust everything they see as forward looking. There are some who will buy now and be happy they took the risk in 2 years just like when I bought my first shares at .23 before the price fell to .03 and I definitely bought more back then.
Time will tell. But those buying near $1 today, (in 2 years) will be like us buying at .23 two years ago. And if they can get a huge dip, they will be glad to get it before all the reports for calendar year 2021 come out.
It makes anyone nervous to buy at 1.80 and see the price drop to $1.06 it is frankly scary.
I’ve had many stocks drop heavily. Some are dumpster fires but I keep watching for the turnaround.
This one is just timing. We overshot the fundamentals a bit too quickly and some got caught at the top. And like some of us who waited 2 years, you might have a long wait with opportunities in the middle. Playing the market is like gambling. Know when to hold em, and when to fold em. It’s not easy to know when to buy and sell without filings and reports that provide some level of comfort that all is well.
Remember, short-term price is not predictable, even trends change over weeks time. Company execution of the plan and fundamentals of revenue growth is the only thing guiding you long-term. Heck, look at Home Depot. They had an amazing quarter and short term they are down from 286 to 255 a share. Because the market does not know what the future holds.
Short term trends follow expectations. And long term trends follow fundamentals, but those are 2-3 year trends. Even $1 can be high if the future looks worse than the present. And $800 aka Tesla can look low because the future looks bright. But long term it is revenue growth, debt management, share structure and business execution that makes all the difference to long term investors. Do your own math to figure out what this looks like over 3 years. Be realistic on shares that will be used to make deals and how O/S will change as well as cash flow and profit.
Do the math on what earnings per share can be and what a real PE ratio would be. If you can’t take time to make the assumptions, how will you know if they are exceeding expectations or disappointing the market?
It is realistic to expect them to hit 100MM in the next 24 months based on the acquisitions. What will share structure likely be? It won’t be 138MM shares, so what will it be? I’m guessing 200MM shares by the time they reach 200MM revenue per year, and that makes a minimum $1.50 price up to a $5 price depending on market sentiment, supply and demand for the stock and how well they paint a vision of more growth.
In my mind, anything less than $1.50 is a good deal. And yes, you want cheap shares just much as anyone and you want to enjoy the ride not sweat it out all the time.
Make your models to see how the decisions they make influence your own expectations.
GLTA
On the positive side though, my 5k share order filled and I am back up to 75k shares. Another 25k and I can get back on the Nasdaq board....
I do hate buying 30,000 shares and have it go down 15 cents per share... but it is short term. So I wait... in 1 month if it is bad and gets down to .75 I will make up the difference by averaging down. In one month if it is Over $2 then there is no more worry.
I have to stop watching it everyday. They have their plans and the business will take care of itself.
There goes my chance to buy more at 1.31 unless someone sells the news, which I’ll watch for, but I hope to see a gap and run on that news. I totally believe hunter will encourage others to join him. This is a big opportunity for all those he coaches to grow their business. Once in a lifetime opportunity is forming for all of them. Growing footprint and location. This is pretty important as a development and closing quickly is an awesome sign.
I am feeling very excited about this.
Who knows what the market will do but people should pay attention.