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What does that even mean?
The entire OTC was spiking around that time. Lots of insane valuations. A lucky break in some ways. Sets up for regular and good growth now.
It is amazing they have done all this in one year. Their price was at .06 last year and just think, that would equal $22MM against their current share count. Can you imagine it is like they bought all that for $22MM and the price has increase now to $0.42 up from $0.06 if it had not hit $3 in the middle, they would have never been able to afford the purchases. So call it luck or what. Great timing for once.
If $sirc hit .03 they would only need 1 month of revenue to buy back 100% of their shares, so I have to disagree.
Merc, I agree. After selling most of my shares, after they bought cornerstone, I was like crap. I should have held. And I started buying again at $1.41 on the way down, little bits at a time in case it went back up first. I put my last 100k in when it hit between $0.50 and 0.43 and most of this is because of the vision they had which attracted Hunter. He’s been in business 3 years and had hit 12MM and said he was not interested at first until he saw their vision, and he has connections and RoofCON is important and growing.
I know people hate seeing the price slide, but it is skimming bottom with so much revenue coming they would be silly NOT to buy back some of the shares at this price with whatever they can spare. And if THEY see the value, others will too.
People look for a stock moving upwards. That will happen as more people do the research. It feels like last August/September.
It truly is the right time to buy in, in my opinion. I know anything can change. And price is one of them for the better.
If they pull off a $35MM quarter, it will be hard to keep the price down this low, and I expect they (shorts) will let it fly as soon as they buy their own shares under $0.50
Nice. Record breaking sales in July is nice news. Can’t wait to see if it is 10.5 million or more like 13MM. If they hit anything over12.5MM this will get exciting pretty quickly. If they expect 150MM that tells me 12.5MM at least, but we’ll see.
Any guesses?
So what company uses 1.5x price to sales and why and how is it different than $sirc?
If you do enough research there are concepts of average companies. Average companies grow about 8% per year and have a net income to revenue ratio about 6%-8% also called net profit margins.
A typical PE for these is 15.
A typical price to sales ratio is 1-2 with 1.5 being the midpoint.
For those companies growing faster than 8% the PE ratio goes up. Generally growth over 15% is considered higher growth. Those who also have higher net profit margins also have higher PE values and higher PE goes hand in hand with price to sales before earnings are solid on fast growing new companies.
In some articles there is evidence of higher growth justifying higher PE and higher multiples for price to sales.
So we are expecting 50% organic growth. And some have estimates of 100% growth.
We are currently at 1.65x if we use 100MM revenue, which won’t be until end of fiscal year and the lower estimate.
For a 50% growth, a 5x multiple makes sense given all other things being the same.
If we use TTM, we are at a higher multiple, but as numbers come in and time passes our TTM revenue goes up and will keep going up.
These are the factors that go into company valuations.
The market will do what it does, and eventually, it revolves around value.
It is surprising, yet at the same time an opportunity for some new investors.
Anything can happen and change valuations.
Why TTM? Trailing 12 months accounts for seasonal fluctuations. And averages out spikes and valleys. Also it helps to access growth trends. These numbers will support a lot of ideas on valuation and may not be clearer until we have steady revenue stream and organic growth details.
So look at each quarter over the last 12 months and add them up.
Repeat for upcoming expectations and build a chart. Gauge where they land in value as the revenue and growth becomes clearer.
$0.59 in three months and $0.91 in 6 months valuation. That is not a price prediction. That is not saying it is not worth more or will sell for more. It is my valuations numbers based on typical methods in the industry to come up with a valuation guess.
I welcome others to tell me what their numbers are and what they are based on.
Why we use both. Valuations and charts.
For a fast growing company a higher PE is normal when there are earnings. If a company is new and has no earnings yet, revenue is a common reference point, and price to sales ratio are common, and using Industry peers as examples for multiples is common for all size companies, manipulated or not. The valuations are irrelevant to manipulation and stock price.
As the solar peer group trades at a 10x multiple, I use a 5x multiple as conservative.
As they are growing 100% -500% with acquisitions, which could justify a 500 PE ratio, I am only using 50% growth and 50PE which also translates to approximately a 5x multiple.
I give a range of 5-7x as this is likely in usual circumstances.
Based on revenue, multiples and outstanding shares, and trailing 12 months standard valuation metric I come up with value proposition.
The value proposition is $0.59 in 3 months and $0.91 in 6 months. If price is below that valuation, it is considered worth looking to get into.
Yes there are other factors, but do not materially change my conservative numbers. If someone wants to create other real valuations based on research not just tossing out some odd numbers about people who hold shares and want to sell, that would be great. It does not matter that 10MM shares will be sold. If the price drops, someone gets a good deal.
Ultimately though if people look at the value, there will be more buyers than sellers unless the sellers are manipulative, and want the price to go down and sell shares they don’t actually own. If someone buys shares to hold, they want the price to go up and won’t normally sell for a loss if the value proposition looks good in a short time (under 5 years).
People who invest short term will buy puts and calls but if they buy a stock, they hold for 5 years because they see the value.
Focus on real numbers and estimates and use reports to confirm or deny expectations.
This is how prices move with penny stocks that are not manipulated.
For those of you who have watched and traded penny stocks, price goes up on so much less than what we are showing. Don’t fool yourself into thinking we need heavy structure in place to support price moves. If MM’s would stop putting large sell orders right at resistance, it sure would help. Just let the market decide not the market maker.
There is no reason not to believe the revenue reports. These are not third world entities saying they have deals with the Ukrainian government for gosh sakes. These are real businesses with real people and addresses and teams installing and selling and servicing homes. You don’t need a full audit to get in the ball park.
They say 150MM and let’s say audited it comes out as 148.5MM is that a material difference for the growth from 17.2MM which was projected at $20MM and came up short. Yes we know estimating is harder than solid audit data. But damn, it is not rocket science to look at your books and get an estimate for your sales activity for month or quarter.
Yes, it is harder to make it 100% accurate. Hell for my business I know I spend around $12,000 in expenses but during tax season those numbers get a lot more accurate when I’m filling out the forms.
And I generally know if I have more money in the bank or less, and I know if I’m selling more than I’m spending and I don’t have SEC audits.
Get off the concept that no one can trust anything without see sec clad proof of every detail.
Revenue growth is a big deal, and how companies manage their expenses is a big deal and over time you see how their judgement pans out.
I posted that recap on Facebook. Of my 200 friends, I might get one person to look. Who knows. If that person were to share to their 200 friends, they might add another person and so on. If 10 people shared over the next month, it is possible 1 person would see it from two friends who were unrelated, and they may look. It’s the same with Twitter. We have 300 followers on this board. We could continue to share and connect and send the word out and get another follower or 10.
It may not matter to price in the short term, but the word can spread quickly if you say something every day. With substance like that summary post. The time spent on it is highly appreciated.
Amazing summary.
I think everyone should copy this down and print it and put it on their wall. Make charts and graphs and look at the revenue increases per share increases and realize the potential of organic growth being 50% and higher year over year for some time, plus high growth quarterly for the next year. These numbers will speak volumes and they will clear out debt and low priced shares over the coming year.
Let’s be even more clear about pink Sheet stocks. There are a ton of them out there without a Nasdaq level cfo or without being on QB that kick ass in revenue and grow share price to $3 or higher. For those thinking the only success can happen after uplisting, you’re wrong.
QB will help, but this can run without Nasdaq and without a cfo high caliber, and without QB uplist. Hell, it already ran to $3 once on a lot less substance.
There are lots and lots of penny stock traders who are long traders not shorters. They look for patterns, they look at news, they look for a reason to pounce.
This board has very few traders in the grand scheme of traders.
There are players who will buy 200,000 shares at $2 and get in and out on the way up. We were hitting high share volume over $1.50 on the first run.
It doesn’t matter if everyone on this board is tapped out.
There are lots of people who are waiting for the ones they follow to say go!
Trip may be able to tell us when it appears like a reversal. But I can suggest when you might consider it undervalued or overpriced relatively speaking looking out to the horizon.
At $0.41 with an August value of $0.59 growing to a November value of $0.91, it would make sense to me that anything under $0.50 would be reasonable to take a stake.
If they exceed my expectations on revenue numbers on a monthly basis, these numbers increase. This is a 10MM July and 10MM August estimate and my September, October, November estimates are 12MM per month on average.
It is possible that June July August, might just come in the middle of those and have a value of $0.75 - time will tell. With fast growing revenue, the TTM revenue values will increase heavily each quarterly report. Especially since they are now estimating 150MM run rate. Or 12.5 MM per month or 37.5 per quarter.
By June next year the valuations will be based on 120MM trailing 12 months. And the run rate will likely be 150-175MM by that time. Meaning 25% per quarter growth still is possible into early next year. Any large deal would help even more.
Quarterly revenue could grow to $40MM at that time.
5x 150 is 750 and that gets us to $1.90.
If they can become net income positive they could have money to buy shares if it stays low or is heavily shorted.
And if we get a run, he could hit 10x or 20x again on a spike. If we hit 26x like last time, let’s use a conservative 100MM. That’s 2.6billion. And it would mean a price of $6.61.
Anything can happen between those valuations.
But this is not a worthless scam.
This is a cash cow that might get bought. That would be sweet if it were bought for $1bn.
People make so much noise at the bottom that it is hard to talk any sense. When you look at trailing 12 months, it is pretty obvious why this has corrected to this level as the bottom. People can’t argue much with previous year’s financials. But on a fast growing company the past will be moot pretty quickly.
It is also hard to argue with increasing values for trailing 12 months and shares staying constant. Which is why they wanted to reach this milestone. And then pause acquisitions.
People will have their say now and I can’t debate the historical numbers. But I can make expectations that are logical and then see if we hit them or exceed them.
My 5x numbers are conservative if they have 25% growth per quarter as new numbers start coming in.
You all need to decide what you use to value the company. People who simply make empty statements generally have an agenda and are really not tapped into the business.
We may disagree on specifics of my guesses, but they are backed by a lot of research over 4 years of penny stock trading. It’s not long, and I am still learning. But I research valuations as my guide. If you want to use something else, that’s okay by me.
What is our value today? With a few assumptions.
We have revenue growth of 8M to 30M in on quarter expected. That’s not really normal, so let’s take Q2 estimates and Q3. 30MM and my guess 36MM respectively. 25% quarterly growth. Which is possible. That would translate to a 5x-10x multiple. Let’s take 5x.
Let’s take trailing revenue of 47MM and 72MM respectively.
47x5 is 235.
72x5 is 360
So $0.59 in August
And $0.91 in November.
These are current valuations that I would say are “fair value”
With potential to grow 50% -100% per year.
Last year, when stock prices were under .10 they stated a value of .25 per share and it hit that and more as the price ran.
They have acquired 7 companies now, or have I missed some. Many of them larger than they were last year. Both in revenue and growth. So that .25 would be what today? I’m thinking $1.25 would be the valuation.
If you want to reduce that because of stock increases, well, what price would you put on it?
If someone were to buy them they might pay 15x profit. If they grew at 8% and 50x profit if they grow at 50%, see my previous article on valuations to understand why.
That would be $3.18 per share at 393MM shares at 25MM profit. That’s the potential in 24 months is my guess. Based on estimates. When you slight and dice the numbers, what I really see is that we are undervalued. Oversold. And over time it will be seen.
The numbers are getting there are investors will look at valuations, and growth and charts, and industry and debt and execution of management, and everything they can to decide, is this a fair price today and is it likely to grow at a rate I’m happy with for the next 5-10 years.
For me I believe 2 years is a very short term to get back good return on investment. For those getting in today they have a potential to double twice in two years. That’s amazing.
Those who see this are like those who saw at .03 that it could hit .80 and went in a lot and waited. And bought more as they could. Etc. etc.
I disagree they over paid. Revenue has increased over 5x and shares have not increased that much. So ultimately, they are getting much more from the purchase, plus after the purchase, several of the companies have hired new people and brought more revenue, thus organic growth in a short time.
Revenue is key here, and growth is already happening.
You don’t have to believe the numbers. Filings will come. No need to make up stuff when you are in a real business making money. It’s not like these are fake people making stuff up.
End of year they posted 17.2 Million revenue. The TTM is still low and we are trading at a decent place. 17MM was feb 28 TTM. Q1 was 8.3 MM and June showed 10MM in a PR
They had 4.3MM in Q3 last year if I recall. If June, July and August are 30MM, + 8MM + 5MM + 4.3 million is about 47MM trailing twelve months.
Market cap of $188 million is 4x revenue TTM and $0.47 price per share.
For a growth of 500% this is a very low multiple.
Each quarter, the numbers adjust upward. So if we are looking at 5x multiple on trailing 12 months, we should start to see an increase just as new quarterly revenue reports come out and debt goes away and any conversations get cleared out. Even if we hit 425MM shares for example, 100MM and a 5x multiple is over $1.
And as we get closer to 150MM revenue in the TTM we could potentially start seeing 7x as a multiple on spikes. 4x on dips. That would be $1.50 on a dip.
Feels like a long time coming, but it will come.
And 4-7x are conservative numbers based on real valuations. No hype tossed in and no scarcity of shares and any run ups.
If we ran at 15x or 20x because of hype, this would be over $3 easily.
I do not believe this is a good stock to short. It appears to me that the company is working hard to grow value. This can be seen by increasing revenue, not a huge increase in shares for the relative growth of revenue, and a desire by management to buy shares at a low price.
Until uplisting you probably can short it and hope for the best and you might get 5 cents. But if you buy a lot of shares you might have it go down short term but you can likely forget about it for months and also go up 5 cents or more.
Anything can happen, however I think the value is there.
Fundamentals generally are accurate over time. A company growing at 100% can have a PE of 100 and would be completely natural. This translates to a price to sales multiple of about 10 for the profit margins we are seeing.
At 50% growth a price to sales of 5x to 7x is quite doable without a lot of hype.
We are sitting around 1.5x depending on what revenue you want to use. Eventually, the trailing 12 months will show 100MM moving towards 150MM and the 50% growth will be a given. By that time I expect they will have uplisted and real investors will look at this price as a steal. I don’t care how many shares people have of the 393 million that they want to sell.
At this price, 300MM shares will be bought when the price is right. And it will go up on scarcity until other holders want to sell. In a natural environment every one would have a different price. In this environment someone wants it to go down. And investors will come to buy them the lower the prices the higher the interest, which is the desire for all of us. Make shares at 0.43 scarce. Then the price will go up.
It is just a matter of time. The growth and numbers are there. Not every one knows yet.
I would be happy to see it hold 0.40 for a while until they bought back 10MM of common shares. That puts more value back in my pocket long term. I would love to see them spend 10MM one day, retire 20MM, and announce 12MM revenue for the month of July.
Then, it could go up.
I was hoping the lower the price went and the potential for a buyback would start. It’s hard to drive the price lower knowing the company making 12MM per month could invest it in scooping up Public shares.
Anything under 0.50 would be a deal for them to buy as that could result in $3.00 per share later. Probably not much later.
It makes perfect sense that they want it at .35 or .36 before letting it fly. They know the lower it goes the more who will come and buy up the slack. It’s a tricky game unless of course they are accumulating now while dropping the price. Selling 50k borrowed and buying 60k on the cover. Over and over for weeks. Or just accumulating cash so they can pump their 1MM into it on the day they let it fly.
They will watch for triggers like all the traders. They know what they are doing. And they will make great money on this one.
So we will too.
All I know is that they have 393MM shares at .40 per share at the moment and bringing in 10MM revenue per month and growing 100% per year possibly.
In 3 years that would likely mean 400MM revenue for 400MM shares. And if they hit a 7x multiple that is $10.00 and people are fretting over the current price. Even a 2x multiple would bring $2.00 which every one here has an average below that I believe and if not they could if they can add more.
$0.30 is a market cap of 117MM if it were to hit that every person watching will find some $$ to buy another 10000 shares. Some maybe even 50,000 shares.
How many people need to buy 50,000 shares for this to turn around?
What I believe is that 14000 people buying 5000 shares is 10’s of millions. 70million to be exact.
Many penny influencers have 50,000 followers. Many of them have lots of money in penny stocks.
So, the current volume will not change things.
But higher volume will come if this keeps dipping.
Just my opinion. Anything can happen.
So what will it take to make shares scarce again? Quite simply, more investors. Getting off of pink can bring more investors. Also more revenue and a low price will bring in more traders looking to get $1000 of small runs. So it has to finish hitting bottom and start trending back up.
This could trigger a buying spree and increased which will bring in some long holders as well. In the short term, it might take a lower price to cause enough people to buy up the float so that shares are scarce. That means it would be harder for shorts to cover. It takes time for low volume to equalize the shares that people are willing to sell.
We saw this last year before the run. Revenue was increasing and price was low enough to bring in a lot of buyers, and back then limited shares were out.
Now, ST has over 14,000 watchers and many are short players today but will go bullish at the right time.
If we have 250MM shares to buy up, it would take 500 people willing to buy 500,000 shares. Or 5000 people willing to buy 50,000 shares. Or 25 big buyers willing to buy 10MM shares.
If larger companies are sniffing around, holding companies can also get wind and want to buy in too. There are so many ways that investors can pop up with high revenue and low prices.
And once it really hits bottom and starts trending up, more will come.
We don’t know how long it will take, but we do know it will happen.
What’s interesting is that a stock price just doesn’t go down out of nowhere. People borrowing shares and selling them in such a fashion to drop the price and buyers taking advantage and placing lower bids to accommodate that. If someone is bullish on the stock, why not place lower bids and let the price drop.
What changes this is stock scarcity, and it starts with volume and awareness that a stock is way below market value. If this hits 0.25 there will be so many buying that shares will become scarce.
Only time will tell.
I like seeing it drop in price. It will bring in even more buyers. And that means the launch to the stars will be faster once it turns.
$164MM market cap on $150MM revenue and growth. 4x price is what I’m expecting from bottom to top on the first run. I expect 7x multiple so there will be a second leg up, it will drop back a little so there will be two runs, 400% and 200% from the bottom. Let’s say it is $0.38 at the bottom. That will be a run to $1.52 then a drop and then a run to $3.04 - once this hits 0.38 or whatever the bottom is... the buyers will be loading up as quickly as they can before it hits .50 and volume will pick up a lot, I expect 20MM shares per day in the first leg. And there will be profit takers at .70 .98 and 1.25.... these are my best guesses if it hits 0.38 in the coming weeks.
Once it flips... it will be going up until the cheers are heard around the world.
Get ready.
(Figured it out trip!)
Thanks for the encouragement
I wish it would allow a copy paste.
Here’s the link if that helps...
https://stocktwits.com/Mrmusing/message/360046514
Maybe I’ll retype. I I joined on a browser I might be able to copy and paste
You will not see any drops months from now. Sammy might have a chance to hit .38 as we are .04 away from that. But I can say that a LoT can happen in 1 month. I see the momentum building and I am constantly sharing the word on Twitter with hashtags that I used to find more buyers. Anyone will tell you that for normal companies growing at 8% a year a 1x multiple of revenue to market cap is a good buy. If market cap reaches 2 for something growing at 8% it is a fair buy. A multiple of 3-4 is for growth over 15% and 50% growth companies enjoy up to 10x multiple in a growing industry.
That is trading and investing reality.
As more people research it, more will buy it at 1x than at 4x.
And when it is at 1x and people start seeing monthly revenue growth supporting estimates, more jump in and then FOMO kicks in for those who don’t know what they are doing and they rush to buy as it is going up... and that continues until it goes up so much that investors and traders sell to take profits and then people who don’t know what they are doing start selling because everyone else is selling.
At .38 we hit 1x multiple and with the revenue numbers coming out you have 3 months max to get in under .50.
I may be off by a few pennies, but right in general
The best thing that could happen in the short term is this hitting 0.38... because even more people will take the plunge when this hits a 1x multiple on projected revenue. Those who get in at 0.38 will want a 400% return and they will get it. Those of us who are losing money on paper now will ride the wave with them. The first 400% run may be followed by a dip from profit taking, but it will run again.
4x 0.38 is $1.52 and it could hit that when they announce monthly revenue for July. And the next leg up would be the quarterly report and uplist to QB.
Yes! I feel it too. I see how absolutely dead it is on Twitter. I post and I get only those repeats that already know. But at some point others will come and start wondering why no one else sees it, then everyone will see it.
This happens for odd reasons. But at some point, bigger influencers will buy it, and then they will post. Like Alex, or Timothy, or minx.
I might just have to tag them.
I had wondered why the name change was on hold. And it makes sense that they may be thinking of another name if it is big enough. Massive expansion sounds pretty interesting. Amazing even.
I can imagine to a small extent what you’re going through. You put in a lot. And at a high multiple. It will take time. I also now have a lot in for me at twice the average of the current price.
I have to not watch the short term as I know I’m not selling. And I know it will take months to get a full push behind this. It might be 6 months of a roller coaster ride.
I do believe your $1.86 ave will be worth double at some point in the next 24 months or less.
Everyone would do well to just not watch for a few weeks.
Get some rest.
Look at something else.
Read a book.
Study something
Get some exercise.
Check back in 30 days.
Set a $2.37 sell order for a small bit, just in case you fear missing a spike before you return.
August 22nd. Remember that date.
Nov 22nd is another great date to check.
Okay Sammy, I hate when you put a number down. You’ve had your number hit every time now I think eventually. Is .38 the bottom of bottoms.