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Damn. Shake and bake and I was not able to buy that dip. Someone unloaded. Or was that like a whale dump short sell and quick recovery?
A lot of people are sick they missed that dip.
First time for you and others. If anyone is shorting it they are playing with fire, but they know how. And likely get a rush from it.
Plus it is the 16th and that lines up with mid month shorting. It doesn’t matter.
The real question is the trigger for reversal. Lots of selling pressure if you’re a short time trader. Flush the traders out.
Bring the investors.
Mc67,
Yes, the TTM is just what big investors care about for valuations.
$SIRC trailing 12 months revenue will be increasing every month.
We should be at 4x at the bottom with spikes to 7-10x based on demand and supply. After 12 months of 10MM per month that’s 126MM and 5x is $1.60.
Help me calculate the trailing 12 months revenue on a monthly chart and see where we are today. The last quarters were 4.3MM and 5MM and 8MM or something like that. In February the TTM was 17.2 million on a few less shares. We’re at 393MM shares. End of August we should be 47MM revenue TTM and the quarterly after that could be bigger but that’s the thing to chart. The prices will give you the multiples to expect as this grows. For August we are about 3.3x multiple at this price based on that 47MM TTM. We should be at 5-7x . But we are not far off now. But the TTM will be growing fast. From $17.2 Million to $126MM minimum in 10months and if monthly revenue keeps climbing as they expect the TTM revenue will hit $150MM and even a 4x multiple on that rev is $1.50.
Let’s say solar companies growing fast should get a market cap of 10x trailing 12 months revenue. We are not that far off. 8M + 5 + 4 + 3 should be about 20MM and 10x would be 200MM or about $0.50 per share. Once the next quarterly hits that that should be $470MM or about $1.20… that’s the quarterly report ending August 31.
So what multiple is real? And based on what revenue.
Can someone get me the real quarterly revenue numbers for the last 4 quarters posted? Or link me to the post?
Exactly!!! This is a good thing for everyone finding $$ to invest. And there are more and more investors coming at this price. Anything below this will prompt the company to buy as well. Everyone who researches this and is honest with themselves will see this as a fair price, worth some risk, and will buy a bit. And if it goes up or down they may buy more.
If I were coming in new to this stock I would look at the various factors. Low past revenue which explains the decline from the high. Current revenue growth, market cap in line with future revenue potential on the yearly basis, and potential for industry and company growth.
When I bought at 0.23 in 2018 before the run I put in like $500.
By the time it ran I had put in $6000 and was buying and selling dips and spikes.
Almost anyone with an account of decent size would put $10,000 into this.
20,000 shares will be a nice value in 10 years. Probably over $10. So that 10k becomes $200k....
I may not be able to hold for 10 years. And others may not either. But the longer it is undervalued the more shares can be bought off the float.
I’m telling you $0.40 is a good price. Nice and solid on any valuation you use. So a great company at a fair price. People will keep buying in this range. Some will try to buy lower, but 1.25x on 10.5MM revenue per month annualized without future growth factored in.
The TTM revenue will keep growing until it reaches 100MM and the growth factor will support a 5x multiple minimum. That should be the day we see $1.27 at the latest. If their run rate at that time is headed towards 175MM-200MM they can get a 10x multiple, which would be $2.50 ... so it all depends how their numbers come in. It can bounce around wildly. But as TTM revenue grows, they will be at 1.25 multiple at 126MM revenue if it stays low.
In some ways we are not that far off from where we should be on the trailing 12 months. However the TTM is growing monthly.
That’s the difference now. In February the TTM was 17.2MM and next February it will like hit close to 100MM and the year following the TTM could be 200MM.
That would make 100% growth organically year over year.
A PE potential of 100 and a multiple of 10x on 200MM revenue and 20MM earnings. Which is a $5 stock price using those numbers.
Now to 2.5 years from now we could likely see 1000% return on the investment for any shares bought at $0.40
If you bought at $2 you would see 150% gains. Which still is better than the stock market will give you in an index fund.
So let’s dream a little. I’ve been holding since 2018. At least 3 years now. What’s another 3 years? The time will fly by.
So say they make 200MM run rate next summer and $300MM run rate the summer after that. And $360MM run rate the year after that. With enough time, they will have the ability to hit $4 per share on the low end.
We are not the only ones who can see this. All this information is common in the industry. The multiples and PE are fairly common once you research it. The higher multiples and higher PE goes to high margin and or high growth companies.
Let’s say they hit a 10x multiple at their $250MM revenue mark. And they have 400MM shares.
That is $6.25 per share justification. So in 3 years they will likely hit $6 or more. Now I tell myself that not to make a mistake exiting. But for those who are claiming $20 I want you to really calculate what it would take to get there for a reasonable investor.
Anything under $2 is reasonable. The current price is like only a matter of time before it becomes obvious.
So what’s your plan? Do you have your strategy set? Are you holding 5 years? More? Or do you want your $1MM and you’re out?
Those who are getting in now and even putting in $50,000 could have 100,000 shares and that could hit $600,000 in 3-5 years is my firm opinion.
For those who got in under $2, you just need to hold long enough. It will come around.
It makes sense because of how many people are looking at solar and ev and battery backup - this is a sales persons ideal spot. Growing industry with demand higher than supply and new markets. The faster they grow sales and the more they can deliver with a network of installers, this has so much potential to grow faster than 50% per year.
They have balance, cornerstone, and their other companies all able to expand with the additional sales support they get from the sales focus. Massey has been in this business a while and so have all of these. They are making a greased lightning engine.
They already taste the potential of $200MM and the outside I think they believe they will exceed that with enough time.
I have a feeling their unspoken desire is making this a $1BN revenue company and more.
Yes. Accumulating is happening.
Love the conjecture about news on the street. Nice spin on things. Of course they have to show growth. The news is not about affecting stock price, it is about addressing questions from investors. It takes a good bit of time for a heavy correction in price to turn in this market on OTC. Pink sheets are not about much more than charts and analysis for many people. And what turns a stock if you have people trying to keep it low for whatever reason.
It takes awareness and more people researching and taking that risk and being rewarded and feeling good about it. At some point people will buy at the bottom and it will start going up, and they will promote that that called it right and Pat themselves on the back and will spread the word. Many on this board might be in that group when it turns.
It is interesting to watch penny stocks and the flow. It is also interesting to see charts that look a lot alike across the whole OTC space. Not unique to the company. So what’s up with that? It is almost as if computers are trading and doing so by algorithms to many companies. Making the charts look a lot alike.
And why not. How many billions of $$$$ do some companies have that allow them to control the flow in general. Maybe not completely, but more than any regular trader.
The longer it holds under $.50 the longer they have to raise money to buy back cheap shares on the open market to show they’re serious about investing in the business and the potential they believe the company has. If they can raise 5MM and buy 10MM shares, in 2 years they could sell a fraction and get that money back.
How can they best raise capital today, buy back the shares, and benefit later?
What ultimately will matter on price is supply and demand. There has to be more people wanting to buy this because they believe the value is there.
So far, everyone is turning a blind eye on it. Maybe they bought on a high and did not sell and are not coming back. Maybe there is not enough support in the charts for penny traders and we have to wait for uplist to reach other investors?
Maybe the open market scares people a bit?
USA solar networks does not need customer lists from the old company to function. There are so many new customers waiting to be contacted, but I would love to hear updates from SIRC on the matter. It will keep getting posted and the rumors need to be squashed. They need to answer how they practically will comply with the court order that applies to them and how the network itself does not need the old company.
With the new connections from RoofCON and balance, I have a feeling they can rebuild whatever they had from scratch pretty quickly. But they need to get good legal advice and audits to handle any internal issues.
It does concern me only because they may have an attitude about complying and it does not matter if they think they deserve to use the old info they sold.
The good part is that the non-compete part was tossed out, so he can build a competitive company as long as they do not use proprietary information from the old company and only they could know what that means.
We are hoping this just does not become one long string of lawsuits.
I would suggest they settle out of court with some good lawyers. Just to get this behind them. There is so much to be done and little time to fu$# around with lawsuits.
Thoughts?
Cornerstone now has Atlanta listed on their website.
Anything can change the sentiment of the market and traders. Anything can happen and they want volatility not a decline in price. They want the tug of war. They want excitement and fear. They want it down so it can go up and down so they make more money. They want a lot of trades, and the lower the price on a good stock, the more the volume.
Now I get it when they said they don’t care about shorts they care about the spread. And therefore also the volume.
.20? And why should it? There is no reason that it *should* be trading at .75x sales for market cap. Some people may WANT it to.
The company might even like it so they could buy some. But I think it should be trading right where it is. And it should grow slowly from here.
Previous 12 months they had a small negative cash flow as can be seen by the need to issues shares for expenses last year. Fast forward to today. They have a much higher sales pipeline and they are making money at a faster rate than before which should generate positive cash flow in the coming months.
They could hit 12MM per month or 36MM per quarter which would be about twice their yearly revenue for fiscal year 2021 ended 02/28/2021.
I am expecting sustainable monthly revenue of 12MM per month by October, and increasing 500K per month thereafter. The slow months may see a dip into the 10MM range on a slow month and pull back if their EV division does not get a large contract.
Any large contracts could set them up for sustainable 16MM per month in the coming year.
Even at 100MM revenue growing to 200MM in one year they could have a 10X multiple on that 100MM or $2.50 per share. That would be by February 2022 potentially. And growing at 50% over the following year if they plan to go from 200MM to 300MM in a year. If 200MM to 250MM in the following year the multiple could drop back down to 4x on 200MM or $2.00. This should be a bottom number. And I expect if we got to $3 and maintained it because we were doing 10x on 150MM we could get to Nasdaq.
The more who buy now and hold to $2.50 the more likely we will see $4 because of the demand crunch that I expect will happen.
The more that people research this and run the numbers the more they will believe the charts when they turn.
Today will be interesting to see where it goes.
Ahhh. So where do we go from here. I feel like everyone had said just about all they can and we sit back and wait for the chips to fall where they may. Any day we could see price reversal and a push north, or we could hear of some news. Or we could just wait to see what comes over the next few months.
10MM revenue is 10 sales per month per state. California will generate almost that much alone. If they got 10 sales per state per month in the rest of the country, they would be closing in on 20MM per month.
I can see why they are shooting for 200MM run rate by next June-August time frame.
16.6MM per month is needed to hit 200MM run rates. They are blowing past the 100MM run rate and may hit 100MM total revenue for this fiscal year. August and September could be big months pulling in more revenue.
I just want to see small gains daily until we are in a more normal range, like $1.37 then I would love a run to $5 or something crazy.
Everyone should extend a kind offer to The Minx of Wall Street to join us on iHub. Would like to have her take this ride with us and join us at the soggy dollar bar.
All SING wants is likely money from this event. If they go to trial they might get nothing. If they settle out of court it saves them both for just dropping everything.
Who knows where this will go. But 75 sales teams can find new customers. They don’t need the old customers.
They need to play this right no matter what. But some of the desire to get this thrown out sounds like Pablo was not prepared. I don’t know any of the story really. Just really interested to see this closed out at some point.
At least the no compete clause was tossed out for Pablo. But they need to destroy any proprietary data and not use any of it. They need to start fresh and build their own customers list and build the network from scratch, but they can operate in all the states they are in.
With their own connections I think Sirc and RoofCON could build a better customer list. But if they get a finding against them, Pablo will have to pay financial damages. For instance if they get that 70 million school district it might be bad for him. Unless it applies after they post bond.
Whatever is needed to cut this cleanly they need to do it. They must not use customer lists. And proprietary information. And if any information was shared with SIRC it must be removed from any of their sales teams ASAP.
But the network itself allows new customer lists to be created. And they can compete. That is a big win for SIRC.
It will be interesting to see what damages may be granted if this goes to trial or if they will settle out of court.
Thoughts?
I would like SIRC to comment on how they can comply with the injunction.
Do you have more information about the delisting of stocks? Is there a list?
I have not thought much about it. Fewer stocks means less money going to bad companies. So hopefully it will help.
So quiet on the weekend.
We’ll be dancing
Skimming the bottom. At some point, someone is going to pounce. Maybe not today. Maybe not next week. But we should be at $1.27 as a minimum. That is 300% from where we are. There’s a lot of room for traders to make money on the way up.
There are numbers that make sense when the company is growing revenue and approaching profits.
1.57x 100MM
5x 100MM
5x 120MM
5x 150MM
5x 200MM
Troy mentioned on his video he expected 200MM run rate by next year.
They announced 100MM run rate and they exceeded that at 10MM per month.
If they actually get to 200MM in the next year, that will be 100% growth year over year and could easily justify 10X on the way to that number. So say we hit 10x the 120MM numbers.
1.2Bn / 393MM shares is $3.05.
I’m not suggesting 10x the 200MM because we don’t know the projections for the following years after that.
But next year they will be at 120MM on the trailing 12 months and they will possibly be hitting 16MM revenue per month across all the companies. And that would be pretty close to 100% growth quarterly based on Q1 this fiscal year.
Even if we don’t hit 10x the 120MM numbers, we should hit 5-7x if things go the way other penny stocks have gone when revenue keeps increasing.
If they uplist by September, I totally expect $2 by October.
What he says sounds familiar :)
Just over 1x revenue expected 4-5x and that’s on the low side I think.
But 150MM x 5 is 750. That takes it close to $1.90.
If we hit 200MM revenue for real, that’s $2.50
And if there is any excitement... and we get higher than 5x which is totally possible, anything is possible.
5x sounds like a solid possibility.
Recently they did announce that they decided to go as alternative reporting company for a while. Yes I know they were trying to get audited and they may not have realized the complexities while they were acquiring. Now that they are pausing so they can focus on consolidation, it may just be worth asking on the monthly Q&A about the pros and cons of them doing the audit, and how long it really takes.
I know that audited reports carry more weight.
So let’s say they expect 30MM per quarter coming up and audited it comes in at $28MM because of this or that is that a material difference on company valuation? And what the expectations are for price to sales ratios.
Plus, are you more interested in trailing 12 months revenue and what multiples are you thinking is reasonable?
In past posts, I’ve mentioned some of the numbers. But I don’t always recall the numbers on each quarter. Is it posted above? Or could we if not?
Q3 FY21: 5.3MM ?
Q4 FY21: 4.8MM ?
Q1 FY22: 8.3 MM
Q2 FY22: 30MM
Q3 FY22: 33MM
Q4 FY22: 36MM
Q1 FY23: 40MM
What I like to look at is 12 months trailing because investors expect to review that. Some people don’t understand why it could be $0.40 but today we are only at about 41MM trailing 12 months including June/July give or take a few million, which is about 3.8x multiple, and so even though we are low, it’s not totally unimaginable.
Now, as time goes on and we see two full quarters at $30MM+ Revenue, we get a lot more real information. And more investors who read quarterly reports and not so much PR news, will have their ears perk up. Even unaudited.
What I believe is that it could run faster than reporting happens, or it can wait until after reports come in until so many people find it and research it.
The best thing to review is company operations and see how it goes.
Another day skimming along the bottom.
Any news on Pablo hearing?
What if a company came to buy them. What prices would you vote yes for? I’m thinking $5 half cash and half stock in a company where the stock could grow a lot.
What we don’t know are the market maker plans. They know it is oversold. They also know when to lower volatility to make it a non-starter. What we don’t know is the time table.
If buyers have not come yet, will it take a quarterly report of $31MM for them to come? Or will it take more. Will it take $12MM per month?
Could this sit at 1x revenue for a while because everyone has better penny trades lined up?
I like that analogy. Like a fine wine getting better with age and now on sale! And if the sale lasts more wine lovers will come for a bottle.
It could take 2 years to run. But it will run again. Too much growth and too small of a price.
Look at the details from 1 year ago when it was .03-.05 and the dip to .02 and very few were talking about it, then it seemed every one was talking about it.
It will run again. It just takes the right players in this space to put it on the watch list.
People with 50,000 followers for example.
It may be true that there are sellers. At some point at this price the sellers will wear thin. Maybe it takes a few more weeks. Not the end of the world.
The key here is getting some expectations on what prices are reasonable for new people doing the research without a lot of hype. This industry (solar and EV) and the roofing industry both are growing significantly.
They have more sales pipeline now and are growing into these spaces.
While I was a bit disappointed in the 10.5MM record revenue, as I was hoping for 12MM, this helps me set expectations for how long this skims along the bottom.
I’m expecting there may have to be some time for the sellers to finish selling and new longs to show up holding for the next increase. I also think it will be a rocky ride uphill with many dips.
I do like the longer time at lows because I like to see people get in at the bottom or close to it.
Audited financials for an alternative reporting company is not important today. Building the business from private companies to an integrated public company is their focus, and on selling.
Most All these companies were private companies a year ago. Audits are overrated at the current time. I have not reason to doubt that the priority now is selling to customers, not catering to our needs to see all their details by an auditor.
Doing an audit is distracting, and pulls them away from the primary mission of becoming profitable.
You can become profitable without an audit. You can make your business thrive without an audit. And if they have investors and bankers to work with, they likely can raise money where needed.
These companies were making money as private companies and have been in business a while. There are costs to grow and to do all the legal stuff. But in reality the only thing that matters most is becoming profitable and you don’t need an Audit to get there. You might need an audit for people to believe before they put in a lot of money. But many people will believe in the monthly revenue reports and unaudited quarterly reports. Knowing they may want to give a few million as leeway in the assessment.
This is why I estimate 4x revenue multiples because the revenue is unaudited. And it could be off a little. However if it is close, I already have my shares and so will others.
I disagree. There is little chance this will go to .03. There is no support for it dropping that far below sales. At 0.25 This would be a market cap of 98MM on 120MM run rate. If it gets close to that spot, more will come and buy up ALL the float. I am expecting it to be bought up at this price $0.40 as we have every reason to believe this will recover price.
I disagree. You don’t get delisted from pink sheets - geez!
Yes, Spence. Totally agree. Even if there are dips, the time is close. The revenue numbers will just increase monthly as they make more connections, and expand into more regions. All the knowledge they have accumulated under their roof of companies and the synergies allow for strong growth.
Even without a strong CFO to get them to Nasdaq yet, the business is able to make money and tune the balance sheet. If they become profitable pretty quickly they will have cash to do things like buying back shares. Heck, they could likely get a normal loan at 6% for 10MM and buy 20 million shares that will be worth 60 million later.
Can you imagine if they started buying shares on the open market and canceling them?
The buzz would start. They should be at a 5-7x multiple today. I use 4x as a conservative number.
Even a 2x multiple gets them to $0.71 which is more than a 50% gain from today’s price.
If they start showing monthly revenue growth, I expect more will come and buy even on pink sheets which could get this back to $1 before uplist to QB.