Repost from Yahoo:
"“Hi everyone, this is from Hong Kong, probably the only person doing research and analysis on RLF in Hong Kong......just sharing some personal work.
I like RLF a lot, like most of you. I made a very simple excel to see what's the target price. I applied several CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS:
1. RLF-100 would only be used to treat COVID-19. Treatments(and incomes) from other respiratory disease NOT included.
2. Selling price at $3000usd per treatment. Of course it can probably go higher like up to $10000 as mentioned by Mr. Selvaraju , because it seems much more promising than Remdesivir which is selling at over $3000. I made a sensitivity table on the right hand side to reflect the upside potential.
3. Relief Therapeutics only gets a small share, say 15-25% of the gross sales of RLF-100/Samivir/Aviptadil. The reason is they do not perform any business function. I assume the gross selling will be booked under NeuroRx.
Most work is done by NeuroRx.
Production will be done by partnership with big names, who are also greedy to take a share of pie.
The 15-25% effect to share price also shown in the sensitivity table.
4. Net profit margin for Relief Therapeutics will be extremely high, say 95%, because they do not bear any significant selling or production cost. They only take what's left after NeuroRx and big Pharms, but mostly become net profit.
5. The max. monthly production will be 300k, which converts to 3.6m per year for moderate to severe patients. That's already a significant amount compared to current global cases. (only 20% patients will proceed to more severe states).
Although we may not like, some people will just choose other medicine. I don't think RLF-100 can take 100% market share. It's powerful but not necessarily saving every single person, or not every single person is willing to be saved by it.
Unless trials further prove that RLF-100 has preventive uses (which I believe it will, as it acts on ACE2 receptors of Aveolar Type II cells, but I don't put personal belief in calculation), I think it hardly goes beyond 300k per month. I saw news saying Remdesivir's production at 550-600k for July 2020. That's a good reference for Relief as a small company.
6. The life-span for RLF-100 to monetize is 3 years, only. This subjects to your imagination.
The sales is not constanly 300k per month, but I think an average 300k lasting for 36months is optimistic enough. That's why I disagree to use 5-10x P/S or any P/E higher than 5. PE multiple at 3 is base case, subject to further upside if any positive results coming out.
Conclusion
The price target is AT LEAST $2.1, based on conservative assumptions above. Thats over $4b usd market cap. on a single product, which is good enough for me.
Again, according to the sensitivity table, it has potential to go as high as double digits. And if VIP is proven to be preventive for any virus working on ACE2 receptors, and that VIP is a cure for other respiratory diseases, we can expect substantial upside.
I hope you all understand that it's extremely difficult to do valuation at this moment, sorry to disappoint those expecting RLF to go up to high double digits.
But market is market, not every investor needs to have clear valuation on a target stock, as we all have seen how Hertz and Kodak being speculated. RLF is not a scam nor pure speculation, no one knows how high the stock price goes.
I wish everyone become millionaires from this promising and life-saving journey with RLF.
The above is my personal work sharing, not an investment recommendation. Always do your own DD and calculations.”"