Why XKEM Undervalued- Not likely
by: wearelegion06 06/18/06 12:19 pm
Msg: 270691 of 272745
"Market cap of only about $4 million when they are about to be approved to sell a drug to over 9 million people."
(Actually, according to their news release and other sources, there are apr 4 million people with this disease in Nigeria. To say that they will be able to sell to all of them is, well ridiculous quite frankly)
"Drug has no competition what-so-ever"
There have been a number of studies, both short and long term with regard to SCD. A regiment of vitamins, yes vitamins has brought the mortality rate, and general comfort levels of patients to a 'near cure' co-efficient. Here's a link to one of the studies performed at University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria. Quote "The mortality rate fell from 20.6% in 1988 to 0.6% in 1995"
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=1 5938726&dopt=Abstract
Outcome of holistic care in Nigerian patients with sickle cell anaemia.
Akinyanju OO, Otaigbe AI, Ibidapo MO.
Department of Medicine, College of Medicine of the University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria. oluphysic@cyberspace.net.ng
Holistic care of patients with sickle cell anaemia (HbSS) was carried out in a dedicated support group and clinic in Lagos. This paper examines the outcome of this initiative using mortality, hospital admission and blood transfusion rates from inception in April 1988 to December 1995. Patients with sickle cell disorder and their families were admitted to the Sickle Cell Club and its associated Sickle Cell Clinic. All patients and parents were counselled on recruitment and were regularly followed up within an interactive family friendly environment. Other measures included preventive health and nutritional education, prompt treatment of illness and free supplies of vitamin supplements, malarial prophylactic and other necessary medication. The records of consecutive patients with HbSS were reviewed for this study. Over the study period, the number of subjects increased from 290 in 1988 to 1223 in 1995. The mortality rate fell from 20.6% in 1988 to 0.6% in 1995 (P < 0.0001); the number of hospital admissions fell from 350 (119%) in 1988 to 30 (4%) in 1995 (P < 0.0001); the number of patients transfused with blood fell from 260 (90%) in 1988 to 25 (2%) in 1995 (P < 0.00001). We conclude that the provision of well-organized holistic care can significantly reduce illness and deaths and improve the quality of lives of people living with HbSS in developing countries.
PMID: 15938726 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
"- Approval "coming at any moment"
This is quite insignificant. The Nigerian government, as corrupt as it is, will fast-track approve any new drug basically, in so far as it can even show marginal effects, and of course not harm or kill anyone. The government really does not control, nor condone drug-testing. If it means an investment in their country then you'll have no trouble. Heres something interesting to illustrate.
http://www.newsinferno.com/archives/category/drug-side-effects/page/2/
Nigerian Government Report Slams Pfizer for Testing Unapproved Drug on Children
Date Published: Monday, May 8th, 2006
The Washington Post released a Nigerian government report which concluded that Pfizer Inc. violated international law when the company tested Trovan on children with brain infections during a meningitis epidemic in 1996. Trovan was unapproved for use in children
"Got approved for $1.8 million loan, even before official approval of drug"
I noticed that the rate of interest is 15% with a number of other facilities attached. Even though the loan, 1.2mm, not 1.8 (Your numbers seem to be growing) is a drop in the bucket, and I suspect more for 'promotion' than anything else. Here is something else to consider. A typical Nigerian makes less than a dollar a day. Government workers (police, teachers, etc) make about twice that amount. There are no reliable stats to show how many people make zero dollars a month, and rely of government and 'world' sources for food and shelter. It should be pointed out that many children still die from not being able to find sufficent amounts of food. These stats are available anywhere on the net, but I would think that most people who can read a newspaper already know this, which makes your next statement an incredible mistake.
"- Numbers indicate over $200 million in profit per year once they are producing at full capacity (within a year)"
I don't know where you're getting your numbers from, but they have no basis in reality or Nigeria. Even if a full half of all those affected who had a form of SCD were to spend half of the money they earned on this drug, it wouldn't amount to $200 million, let alone $200,000 in profits. I can only refer you back to the study showing that the vast majority of these people benefit exponentially from regular check ups and a healthy diet augmented with a course of vitamin treatments.
In short, XKEM will produce nominal revenues from this new drug, and will probably lose money for many years before any profit whatsoever is turned, if ever.
Just thought I would let you know about these things as it seems you're a little misguided on the realities of Nigeria and the potential of releasing a new drug there.
Thanks just the same though.