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Ok now I undestand better what you mean, namely that someone who hasn't tendered their shares can sell anytime, whereas someone who has not has to wait until his shares are untendered to sell them.
Thanks for clarification.
Mario Gabelli is going to be on CNBC in a few minutes-maybe he will pump Ocata. lol
He was also smart enough to sell some shares near peak of $12.50 or so and signed off on the takeover offer because he realized that his work in order to reach fruition could never be accomplished by Ocata alone.
Whats the difference if one tendered or didn't tender if Astellas pulled the offer-everyone's remaining shares would take the same hit.
Its funny-right before I saw this, I was considering posting that imo that without the $8.50 offer, the stock price would be around $3 or lower, and looking very bleak indeed moving forward for the reasons you state.
Imo to say that this company could survive on its own if Astellas walks away and with no other suitor or jv is delusional and insane beyond comprehension.
I have a question for someone who understands the legality of deals like this:
Lets say that the tender offer falls short again, not too far away from the 50% plus one but still short.
If they wanted to, could Astellas for the sake of example raise the bid to $9.25 and state and obviously keep their word if it dosen't work with a statement something akin to stating that $9.25 would be their final offer and if the next tender failed, that they would simply walk away.
I am not advocating this or even saying it would be a good idea, but am just curious to the legality of the matter.
Thanks for clarification.
If I had understood that, I would have tendered my shares I untendered after the first tender failed-now it is too late because of processing deadlines.
I sure as heck am not going to sel my remaining share if this deadline is not simply another deadline with an automatic required time extension if the offer doesn't go through.
It is really amazing at this juncture that there is even a question about it-I simply assumed by what other folks said that Jan. 21 was the end of it, that is, Astellas had the right to walk if the tender vote failed.
This definitely needs to be clarified.
I was planning to sell my shares before the deadline assuming A
Astellas per the agreement could legally walk away at that time.
The whole equation changes if there are required to stay until March.
Perhaps Captain Kirk to use a popular phrase here of late, can be the "White Knight" and give us his take on this.
I am going to take my chances with this one.
Rumor has it that another white knight is interested in coming to the "rescue" of the company, in this case would you believe it is a female white knight! lol
http://javasea.ru/uploads/posts/2014-01/1389896482_morskaya-rycarsha.jpg
Can someone help me out here and explain to me what is going on here?
After the first tender didn't get there, we heard all kinds of predictions/gossip and speculation that a "bidding war" would start immediately with most estimates beginning at least at "conservatively" $12.75, which is 50% higher than current bid and many into the 20's.
Well unless I missed something, none of these predictions "quite materialized" and I haven't heard talk of that of late-I wonder why-can someone explain to me why and how "shockingly" this never came to pass.
Is this simply a case of the predicition being right but that the timing was simply off and/or is it a case that perhaps some of those crystal balls need to be repaired or replaced with newer and more accurate models?
In all fairness, there is always Gabelli, the great white speculator knight, and the hopes/expectation that either right before the deadline ends or after it if the tender fails, he is going to come to the rescue here and offer at least $15-$20 a share to be sure that he gets control of this can't miss company and to show the world how much power he can wield with one stroke of his wallet.
Yeah come on Mario-we all know you presence and investment really has nothing to do with arbitrage and that all of a sudden out of nowhere you just decided perhaps based on what Bogey said at the other forum that this company is easily at least a $100 a share company and that probably in actuality Bogey the Booger's assessment that the valuation of this company will be at least 600 billion is way too conservative.
Yeah come on, Mario-hurry up and buy this company before Warren Buffet or someone else of his means beats you to the punch and offers $50 a share as an OPENING BID! lol
If I understand the question correctly, you are asking if the stock will sell off if the tender doesn't go through.
My opinion is that if it does not go through, it will depend on what Astellas says or does immediately afterwards.
If they extend the offer some more, imo the stock price may not do anything one way or the other.
If they walk away, and no one immediately comes to the rescue, then yeah imo the stock could take a quick hit.
jmho
My own opinion of all these different theories about PW and Astellas(including my own),some of which are conspiratorial in natureabout how the details of how this deal was concocted is that they cannot be proven in any court of law, and even if they could, it would be many months before the case was heard and a verdict was rendered.
Foe me as Captain Kirk says, it is a legal deal, thats it, and its up to shareholders to either tender their shares or not tender them based on their feelings.
If they get the 50% plus 1, the deal goes through-if not, it doesn't go through;then whatever happens, happens moving forward-for me it is that simple and imo how it will be regarded by the regulatory agencies.
ok-I will accept that even though it wasn't posted as a choice.
One's overall state of mind and feelinss at this point are every bit as important if not important than what does at this juncture and even more so for someone like you who has invested his money, effort and patience for that long a period of time.
My choice is #4-sell all of my remaining shares unless something dramatic happens between now and deadline date.
Lets take a survey.
We all know what a relative few of us are going to do between now and the tender deadline but thats about it.
Thus I am going to toss this out an informal survey.
The question is what are you going to do between now and the deadline.
Here are some of the choices-if I left out any which applies to you, please state:
1)Keep all of the shares you presently own and don't tender.
2)Buy additional shares and don't tender any shares including original ones.
3)Tender all of the shares you presently own.
4)Sell all of your shares into the open market.
5)Tender some of the shares you own(state what percentage)and sell the remainder into the open market.
6)Tender some of the shares you own(state what percentage)and for whatever reason simply hold onto the remainder and see how the offer ends up.
7)Ask the Supreme Being what to do and/or a psychic and abide by what you are told to do.
8)Light some kind of candles to ward off evil spirits and/or to get Astellas to offer more or for Mario or someone else to make a new offer prior to deadline and don't make decision until/if there are results.
9)If you unfamiliar with that other forum we always talkabout, reads the posts of Bogey and others over there and what they say first about the matter and make your decision based on that. lol
10)Similar to what Bogey has done already, email or call every BP and Government on the face of the earth including Astellas and implore them to make a generous for Ocata(you never know-maybe they will listen to you rather than him)and see what happens and then make your decision.
11) If you are unsure/torn between two of choices listed above, flip a coin to make the final decision.
Anyways, make you decision and/or another one not listed and let us know.
ps If applicable somehow, you can make more than one choice.
I have a hunch or at least a hope that by the end of this week after the shares are counted, the results are known and what happens because of it to the stock price if anything,imo one way or the other there is going to be some finality/closure to this daily drama,rampant speculation and gossip.
I for one hope that my assessment is correct in order to be able to move on and worry what to do with the proceeds(for the record unless something dramatic happens, I will have sold every last one of my shares prior to the deadline).
If there is a better offer if the tender fails and I lose out, I will have no regrets. because to be blunt I don't want to take the chance of being a bagholder if this tender fails and Astellas says sayonara.
How about this aa a possiblity only:
Wotton and BOD come to an informal and tentative agreement a while back about buying the company but with the understanding that Ocata has the chance to shop the company around first to see if there is a better offer and to come back to Astellas before they agree to it.
It is sort of a like shopping for a car-the car salesman gives an offer to someone buying a car and a trade in value for his old one if applicable.
The customer says he wants to go to some of other dealers first to see what they will offer.
The car saleman says fine but come back and see us before you accept any other offer.
In this case I say it is possible that Ocata was shopped around by PW with no offer close to the $8.50 or whatever it was initially.
Thus PW and the BOD went back to Astellas and agreed upon $8.50.
The End
By Friday there will be a verdict one way or the other and/or hopefully Astellas will raise the bid a little before that ime although I wouldn't bet on it happening.
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yes we know how you feel. No need to repeat so often imo.
Yes we know how you feel about what I say. No need to repeat so often or for that matter even read what I have to say.
The way I see it the people who don't tender or sell into the open market prior to the deadline are going to be unhappy no matter what.
If they don't tender and the deal goes through ay $8.50 or even in the unlikelihood of $9.50, they will be upset because they didn't get a minimum of say at least $13.
If they don't tender and the deal fails, they are going to be a lot more unhappy if Astellas walks away, there are no other suitors and stock price collapses in such a quick manner as if it was hit by a tornado.
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Then when they become successful the rewards are beyond ordinary, for everyone…shareholders will buy more when the company grows with promise, and recapture there investments with rewards, making the wait worthwhile……
Instead of the word "when" in first sentence I would substitute the words "IF they beoome successful and a very big IF," etc.
As I see it, the biggest difference between me and you and many other folks is that you make yiur assessment of the company based on potential only and/or that marketability and profitability is right around the corner.
I on the other hand and imo many BP Companies and other folks look at Ocata with potential for sure but also with a lot of hurdles and obstacles to overcome both in Phase 2 and beyond and financing and a marketable product a number of years away by the company's own admission in its filings.
This imo is why at this stage these companies would rather take a wait and see approach rather than commit big money to the company and in many cases to simply stay away.
Also, imo the fact that this company has presently and historically a bad reputation as to how it has been run with its shady and deceptive CEO's along with it very obviously manipulated trading is well known and sends a bad message out to those who might otherwise have more interest in getting involved.
I am not saying that my/their opinion is necessarily more valid than yours, but rather I am merely stating an opinion as to why things have evolved to the way they are at this juncture.
For some reasons this post and its content bring back the famous quote by the evil Borg, speaking of Star Trek, "You(Ocata) will be assimilated."
And yet while Astellas wiped the floor with Wotton, for some strange reason none of the CEO's and negotiating teams from these other highly successful BP Companies when contacted by Ocata were impressed enough with this "can't miss/slam dunk rising star of the future" to offer a bid anywhere near what Astellas did and in most cases not interested to get involved with this "incredibly honest" and "straight forward" company.
But of course, we should all defer to the opinions and judgments of retail shareholders because in reality they know more than the Ocata BOD, the scientists and CEO's of the companies about everything which needs to be considered in deciding whether to get involved with this company and/or what a fair bid is-ok,uh huh, sure, right on, makes a lot of sense, definitely, it goes without saying, of course.
In this case imo if people follow Mario and the money, at best they are going to get $8.50 or perhaps $9 or a tiny bit more if Astellas raises the bid and the tender goes through
At worst, if they "follow the money," the tender fails and Astellas walks away, the ultimate outcome of one's investment will be the same as "following the lemmings." lol
If the price is such a "Blue Light Special," then where are all the other suitors with their competitive bids-surely the VIPS at these other BP Companies are well educated and aren't well um "blind" and must see the value here-what am I missing?
If they don't get the tender and Astellas walks away, something tells me that if the stock crashes, in retrospect many are going to have big regrets about not taking half a loaf when they had a chance.
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Three types of $OCAT MB Posters
(1) Astellas planted
(2) Shareholders that sold and do not want the tender to go higher than $8.50
(3) Shareholders that believe in $OCAT higher worth than $8.50
How about #4- posters who have been almost 100% wrong over the last few years with their predictions based on faulty logic, reasoning to draw positive conclusions which never came to pass along with unfounded speculation and gossip.
Imo it is immaterial now whether stock price was walked down or not.
We are talking about the situation as it exists now which means $8.50 and no bid from any other interested party since this company started to be shopped around.
For me it is irrelevant who is pissed off because they are behind in their investment or not-thats show biz;oe doesn't win all of the time.
If I am wrong and the tender doesn't go through and Astellas or someone else offers a higher bid, great, I will take the money and gladly admit I am wrong.
Personally I think the tender will go through this time at $8.50 or a little higher(max $9-9.50).
Imo the big problem is that many folks who are gung ho in this company don't realize that many others are not-if they had been, there would have been a lot more suitors than now and certainly a lot higher bid than the "petty" $8.50.
ps As far as walking the stock price down and my negative comments about Wotton, I was one of the first to harp on the rampant manipulation which goes on with trading and probably one of the first also to write to Finra and complain when the stock price was "walked down"(with no results taken).
If this tender does not go through and Astellas walks away, anyone holding any puts on the stock and not owning the stock at the same time imo are going to clean up on them, as the stock price will get smashed and rather quickly over the next few months, at least down to $4 if not $3 or even $2.
I agree 100% with what this person from another forum says:
I suspect that they will get the 50%+1 by Jan 21st. With the biotech market tanking hard and capital drying up it seems unlikely to me that Astellas will need to up the offer. I would bet that the Ocata insiders are hoping more than ever that the deal goes through. The prospects for raising funds on their own have diminished considerably in the last couple of weeks.
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Thxs Bogeyfree you are doing an excellent job in summarizing $OCAT perjury violations.
Well, I will say in all fairness that in this instance, what he says has more validity than his prediction that Ocata would hit $100 a year in 2015 and the one which has a conservative valuation for Ocata in the next few years is to quote Bogey, 600 billion dollars. lol
Well put.
There seems to be a mistaken notion out there that every deal that Mario or any other big time investment firm takes a position in a stock it has to be for megabucks.
I assure you that this is not the case, and like any other investor no matter how big they are, when they see an opportunity where they perceive the odds to be in their favor, they are going to take it even if it is only for a few percent.
Believe it or not, lots of relatively small profits over time add up to big profits.
Free money is free money!
Bogus(actually bogeyfree) is the laughable poster over at that the infamous other forum we all joke about-I am not sure I am allowed to state the name here.
I cannot make a prediction of that nature at this time-too early.
Hmmm-interesting. Bogus changed/edited his original post implying that the other poster was lying about his conversation with Ted Myles about the stock plunging to $2 if not tender and Astellas walks.
Now the post consists of a series of questions that he Bogus feels should be asked of Myles.
I guess the Booger decided that as delusional as he is, it wouldn't be too cool to accuse another poster of lying about a conversation and especially since what Ted said was/is not what folks want to hear.
You do realize these could be the last days of this board, if the deal closes
For me after ten years in many ways it will be a welcome change not having to worry about the daily trial and tribulations of this company and stock price, alhough admittedly I will have to find something else to fill the void.
I am not really all that concerned though as I own lots of other different stocks to watch daily even though I don't visit their chatboards because they are either very boring or nonexistent.
Did you notice that right before this was posted, Bogus implied that this poster was lying and stated that Ted was on the road today and that Bogus's wife(I won't comment on this entity for obvious reasons lol)stated that Ted told her/the significant other that he would get back to Bogus tomorrow?.
And of course, we all know that Bogus will tell us the "Real Truth" about Ted's real "documented" opinion here-uh uh, ok, sure, I can hardly wait for the "real truth" here from Bogus the Truth Teller. lol
We will know in a week-personally I think Astellas has just about all of the votes they need now, and in any case will get them if they have to raise the bit a little by $.50 or a little more but no way more than $1.00.
It was hard to get Astellas to raise the bid a lousy $.10 from $8.40 to $8.50, and the 50% increased or more suggested by some is wishful thinking or fantasy, although I would love to be wrong.
I think what Ted said about the stock retreating to $2 will send some scurrying to the exits also to sell or tender.
Again we will see soon as the time is winding down quickly.